2,682 research outputs found
Network Psychometrics
This chapter provides a general introduction of network modeling in
psychometrics. The chapter starts with an introduction to the statistical model
formulation of pairwise Markov random fields (PMRF), followed by an
introduction of the PMRF suitable for binary data: the Ising model. The Ising
model is a model used in ferromagnetism to explain phase transitions in a field
of particles. Following the description of the Ising model in statistical
physics, the chapter continues to show that the Ising model is closely related
to models used in psychometrics. The Ising model can be shown to be equivalent
to certain kinds of logistic regression models, loglinear models and
multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT) models. The equivalence between
the Ising model and the MIRT model puts standard psychometrics in a new light
and leads to a strikingly different interpretation of well-known latent
variable models. The chapter gives an overview of methods that can be used to
estimate the Ising model, and concludes with a discussion on the interpretation
of latent variables given the equivalence between the Ising model and MIRT.Comment: In Irwing, P., Hughes, D., and Booth, T. (2018). The Wiley Handbook
of Psychometric Testing, 2 Volume Set: A Multidisciplinary Reference on
Survey, Scale and Test Development. New York: Wile
A survey of statistical network models
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for
discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of
network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of
study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation.
Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in
social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an
active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort
moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past
decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and
computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online
networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of
more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in
the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide
the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an
overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then
we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network
literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static
and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal
model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of
parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open
problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.Comment: 96 pages, 14 figures, 333 reference
Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk
Common asset holding by financial institutions, namely portfolio overlap, is
nowadays regarded as an important channel for financial contagion with the
potential to trigger fire sales and thus severe losses at the systemic level.
In this paper we propose a method to assess the statistical significance of the
overlap between pairs of heterogeneously diversified portfolios, which then
allows us to build a validated network of financial institutions where links
indicate potential contagion channels due to realized portfolio overlaps. The
method is implemented on a historical database of institutional holdings
ranging from 1999 to the end of 2013, but can be in general applied to any
bipartite network where the presence of similar sets of neighbors is of
interest. We find that the proportion of validated network links (i.e., of
statistically significant overlaps) increased steadily before the 2007-2008
global financial crisis and reached a maximum when the crisis occurred. We
argue that the nature of this measure implies that systemic risk from fire
sales liquidation was maximal at that time. After a sharp drop in 2008,
systemic risk resumed its growth in 2009, with a notable acceleration in 2013,
reaching levels not seen since 2007. We finally show that market trends tend to
be amplified in the portfolios identified by the algorithm, such that it is
possible to have an informative signal about financial institutions that are
about to suffer (enjoy) the most significant losses (gains)
Learning Bayesian Networks from Ordinal Data
Bayesian networks are a powerful framework for studying the dependency
structure of variables in a complex system. The problem of learning Bayesian
networks is tightly associated with the given data type. Ordinal data, such as
stages of cancer, rating scale survey questions, and letter grades for exams,
are ubiquitous in applied research. However, existing solutions are mainly for
continuous and nominal data. In this work, we propose an iterative
score-and-search method - called the Ordinal Structural EM (OSEM) algorithm -
for learning Bayesian networks from ordinal data. Unlike traditional approaches
designed for nominal data, we explicitly respect the ordering amongst the
categories. More precisely, we assume that the ordinal variables originate from
marginally discretizing a set of Gaussian variables, whose structural
dependence in the latent space follows a directed acyclic graph. Then, we adopt
the Structural EM algorithm and derive closed-form scoring functions for
efficient graph searching. Through simulation studies, we illustrate the
superior performance of the OSEM algorithm compared to the alternatives and
analyze various factors that may influence the learning accuracy. Finally, we
demonstrate the practicality of our method with a real-world application on
psychological survey data from 408 patients with co-morbid symptoms of
obsessive-compulsive disorder and depression
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