An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that, the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty

Coupled Maps with Growth and Death: An Approach to Cell Differentiation

An extension of coupled maps is given which allows for the growth of the number of elements, and is inspired by the cell differentiation problem. The growth of elements is made possible first by clustering the phases, and then by differentiating roles. The former leads to the time sharing of resources, while the latter leads to the separation of roles for the growth. The mechanism of the differentiation of elements is studied. An extension to a model with several internal phase variables is given, which shows differentiation of internal states. The relevance of interacting dynamics with internal states (``intra-inter" dynamics) to biological problems is discussed with an emphasis on heterogeneity by clustering, macroscopic robustness by partial synchronization and recursivity with the selection of initial conditions and digitalization.Comment: LatexText,figures are not included. submitted to PhysicaD (1995,revised 1996 May