2 research outputs found
Advances in approximate Bayesian computation and trans-dimensional sampling methodology
Bayesian statistical models continue to grow in complexity, driven
in part by a few key factors: the massive computational resources
now available to statisticians; the substantial gains made in
sampling methodology and algorithms such as Markov chain
Monte Carlo (MCMC), trans-dimensional MCMC (TDMCMC), sequential
Monte Carlo (SMC), adaptive algorithms and stochastic
approximation methods and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC);
and development of more realistic models for real world phenomena
as demonstrated in this thesis for financial models and
telecommunications engineering. Sophisticated statistical models
are increasingly proposed for practical solutions to real world problems in order to better capture salient features of
increasingly more complex data. With sophistication comes a
parallel requirement for more advanced and automated statistical
computational methodologies.
The key focus of this thesis revolves around innovation related to
the following three significant Bayesian research questions.
1. How can one develop practically useful Bayesian models and corresponding computationally efficient sampling methodology, when the likelihood model is intractable?
2. How can one develop methodology in order to automate Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approaches to efficiently explore the support of a posterior distribution, defined across multiple Bayesian statistical models?
3. How can these sophisticated Bayesian modelling frameworks and sampling methodologies be utilized to solve practically relevant and important problems in the research fields of financial risk modeling and telecommunications engineering ?
This thesis is split into three bodies of work represented in
three parts. Each part contains journal papers with novel
statistical model and sampling methodological development. The
coherent link between each part involves the novel
sampling methodologies developed in Part I and utilized in Part II and Part III. Papers contained in
each part make progress at addressing the core research
questions posed.
Part I of this thesis presents generally applicable key
statistical sampling methodologies that will be utilized and
extended in the subsequent two parts. In particular it presents
novel developments in statistical methodology pertaining to
likelihood-free or ABC and TDMCMC methodology.
The TDMCMC methodology focuses on several aspects of automation
in the between model proposal construction, including
approximation of the optimal between model proposal kernel via a
conditional path sampling density estimator. Then this methodology
is explored for several novel Bayesian model selection
applications including cointegrated vector autoregressions (CVAR)
models and mixture models in which there is an unknown number of
mixture components. The second area relates to development of
ABC methodology with particular focus
on SMC Samplers methodology in an ABC context via Partial
Rejection Control (PRC). In addition to novel algorithmic
development, key theoretical properties are also studied for the
classes of algorithms developed. Then this methodology is
developed for a highly challenging practically significant
application relating to multivariate Bayesian -stable
models.
Then Part II focuses on novel statistical model development
in the areas of financial risk and non-life insurance claims
reserving. In each of the papers in this part the focus is on
two aspects: foremost the development of novel statistical models
to improve the modeling of risk and insurance; and then the
associated problem of how to fit and sample from such statistical
models efficiently. In particular novel statistical models are
developed for Operational Risk (OpRisk) under a Loss Distributional
Approach (LDA) and for claims reserving in Actuarial non-life
insurance modelling. In each case the models developed include an
additional level of complexity which adds flexibility to the model
in order to better capture salient features observed in real data.
The consequence of the additional complexity comes at the cost
that standard fitting and sampling methodologies are generally not
applicable, as a result one is required to develop and apply the
methodology from Part I.
Part III focuses on novel statistical model development
in the area of statistical signal processing for wireless
communications engineering. Statistical models will be developed
or extended for two general classes of wireless communications
problem: the first relates to detection of transmitted symbols and
joint channel estimation in Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO)
systems coupled with Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
(OFDM); the second relates to co-operative wireless communications
relay systems in which the key focus is on detection of
transmitted symbols. Both these areas will require advanced
sampling methodology developed in Part I to find solutions to
these real world engineering problems