Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics : International Evidence

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of-change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management

Direction-of-Change Forecasts Based on Conditional Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis Dynamics : International Evidence

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management

Exploring visual asset management collaboration: learning from the oil and gas sector.

Visual Asset Management (VAM) is defined as a visual, collaborative and cloud-based database application for project sharing, viewing, delivery, operation and maintenance. VAM provides a platform that contains multiple visual data sources of an infrastructure project, including Building Information Models, associated asset documentation and 360{deg} photographic images of the asset. This research presents three cases of the use of VAM in major oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, identifying the challenges resolved using VAM, the benefits realised as well as the opportunities for learning and transfer of VAM to the construction industry. The findings demonstrate that VAM can be used effectively to support decision making process during infrastructure project planning and development. The case studies further demonstrated that VAM will be particularly beneficial in facilities management and built asset operation, thereby, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of information for operations and maintenance. Due to the increasingly complex nature of projects in terms of size, information technology and security, realizing these benefits would require a learning process for all stakeholders involved in procuring and managing assets. This research proposes stepped change and learning opportunity for built assets value maximization and delivery, management and operation efficiency using VAM

A BIM-based theoretical framework for the integration of the asset End-of-Life phase

Due to the migration of industry from the use of traditional 2D CAD tools to Building Information Modelling (BIM) process, and the growing awareness of Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste issues, researchers are interested in compiling the use of BIM for C&D Waste issues. BIM is commonly used for the Design, Construction and Maintenance phases of an asset; however, the use of BIM for the End-of-Life management is still in its infancy. This paper proposes to reconsider the asset lifecycle by incorporating a sustainable End-of-Life, as a phase, in BIM context. Recommendations are given to push the BIM potential up to the asset End-of-Life management. Based on the results of a literature review assessing the current use of BIM for the asset End-of-Life, a conceptual framework was drawn. A set of eleven stakeholders, involved in the asset lifecycle, from inception to deconstruction were interviewed to improve the conceptual framework. The research reveals the impacts and barriers for the integration of the deconstruction phase into the asset lifecycle. Consequently, a theoretical framework for the asset lifecycle from inception to deconstruction in BIM environment is created to change the linear system to a circular economy.Peer reviewe