A new model for probabilistic multi-period multi-objective project selection problem

The project selection problem is considered as one of the most imperative decisions for investor organizations. Due to non-deterministic nature of some criteria in the real world projects in this paper, a new model for project selection problem is proposed in which some parameters are assumed probabilistic. This model is formulated as a non-linear, multi-objective, multi-period, zero-one programming model. Then the epsilon constraint method and an algorithm are applied to check the Pareto front and to find optimal solutions. A case study is conducted to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the approach, with the results presented and analysed. Since the proposed model is more compatible with real world problems, the results are more tangible and trustable compared with deterministic cases. Implications of the proposed approach are discussed and suggestions for further work are outlined

Modeling the Crude Oil Scheduling Problem with Integration with Lower Level Production Optimization and Uncertainty

This research is focused on the modeling and optimization of the crude oil scheduling problem in order to generate the most appropriate schedule for the unloading, charging, blending, and movement of crude oil in a refinery, which means obtaining the schedule that generates the lowest costs. Uncertainty, which is often present in these types of optimization problems, is also analyzed and taken into account for the resolution of crude oil scheduling problem. A comprehensive novel model is proposed to describe the upper level crude oil scheduling problem, generate an optimal solution for the mentioned problem, and allow integration with the lower level production optimization problem of a refinery. This integration is possible due to the consideration of total flows of the different types of crude oil instead of flows of a particular key component in the crude oil to linearize the upper level problem and generate a less complex model. The proposed approach incorporates all the logistical costs including the sea waiting, unloading and inventory costs together with the costs associated with the transfer of crude oil from one to another entity. Moreover, this model also offers the possibility of considering multiple tank types including storage and blending tanks throughout the supply chain and the incorporation of the capability of storing more than one crude oil type in the storage tanks during the schedule horizon. A comparative analysis is performed against other models proposed and preliminary results of integration with a lower operational level are provided. In order to take into account the possibility of uncertainty or fuzziness in the scheduling problem, for the first time an approach is proposed to face the resolution of this problem in order to obtain a more realistic scheduling of the allocations of crude oil. Fuzzy linear programming theory is used here to represent this uncertainty in order to find an optimal solution that takes into account the lack of precise information on the part of the decision maker without losing the linearity of the original system. Uncertainty in the minimum demand to be satisfied in the distillation unit according to the necessities of the market and the lack of precise information about certain costs involved in the operations throughout the supply chain are separately considered. Among the different approaches utilized in fuzzy linear programming, the flexible programming or Zimmermann method and its extension to fuzziness in objective functions are implemented. A comparison between the two cases studied and the crisp model is performed with the aim of determining the effect of these uncertainties in the schedule of the crude oils movements between the different entities in the supply chain and the total cost generated

Review of mathematical models for production planning under uncertainty due to lack of homogeneity: proposal of a conceptual model

[EN] Lack of homogeneity in the product (LHP) appears in some production processes that confer heterogeneity in the characteristics of the products obtained. Supply chains with this issue have to classify the product in different homogeneous subsets, whose quantity is uncertain during the production planning process. This paper proposes a generic framework for reviewing in a unified way the literature about production planning models dealing with LHP uncertainty. This analysis allows the identification of similarities among sectors to transfer solutions between them and gaps existing in the literature for further research. The results of the review show: (1) sectors affected by LHP inherent uncertainty, (2) the inherent LHP uncertainty types modelled, and (3) the approaches for modelling LHP uncertainty most widely employed. Finally, we suggest a conceptual model reflecting the aspects to be considered when modelling the production planning in sectors with LHP in an uncertain environment.This research was initiated within the framework of the project funded by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad [Ref. DPI2011-23597] entitled ‘Methods and models for operations planning and order management in supply chains characterised by uncertainty in production due to the lack of product uniformity’ (PLANGES-FHP) already finished. After, the project leading to this application has received funding from the European Union’s research and innovation programme under the H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions with the grant agreement No 691249, Project entitled ’Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Riskand Uncertain Conditions for Agriculture Production Systems’ (RUC-APS).Mundi, I.; Alemany Díaz, MDM.; Poler, R.; Fuertes-Miquel, VS. (2019). 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Petroleum Refining and Petrochemical Industry Integration and Coordination under Uncertainty

Petroleum refining and the petrochemical industry account for a major share in the world energy and industrial market. In many situations, they represent the economy back-bone of industrial countries. Today, the volatile environment of the market and the continuous change in customer requirements lead to constant pressure to seek opportunities that properly align and coordinate the different components of the industry. In particular, petroleum refining and petrochemical industry coordination and integration is gaining a great deal of interest. However, previous research in the field either studied the two systems in isolation or assumed limited interactions between them. The aim of this thesis is to provide a framework for the planning, integration and coordination of multisite refinery and petrochemical networks using proper deterministic, stochastic and robust optimization techniques. The contributions of this dissertation fall into three categories; namely, a) Multisite refinery planning, b) Petrochemical industry planning, and c) Integration and coordination of multisite refinery and petrochemical networks. The first part of this thesis tackles the integration and coordination of a multisite refinery network. We first address the design and analysis of multisite integration and coordination strategies within a network of petroleum refineries through a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) technique. The integrated network design specifically addresses intermediate material transfer between processing units at each site. The proposed model is then extended to account for model uncertainty by means of two-stage stochastic programming. Parameter uncertainty was considered and included coefficients of the objective function and right-hand-side parameters in the inequality constraints. Robustness is analyzed based on both model robustness and solution robustness, where each measure is assigned a scaling factor to analyze the sensitivity of the refinery plan and the integration network due to variations. The proposed technique makes use of the sample average approximation (SAA) method with statistical bounding techniques to give an insight on the sample size required to give adequate approximation of the problem. The second part of the thesis addresses the strategic planning, design and optimization of a network of petrochemical processes. We first set up and give an overview of the deterministic version of the petrochemical industry planning model adopted in this thesis. Then we extend the model to address the strategic planning, design and optimization of a network of petrochemical processes under uncertainty and robust considerations. Similar to the previous part, robustness is analyzed based on both model robustness and solution robustness. Parameter uncertainty considered in this part includes process yield, raw material and product prices, and lower product market demand. The Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) and Value of the Stochastic Solution (VSS) are also investigated to numerically illustrate the value of including the randomness of the different model parameters. The final part of this dissertation addresses the integration between the multisite refinery system and the petrochemical industry. We first develop a framework for the design and analysis of possible integration and coordination strategies of multisite refinery and petrochemical networks to satisfy given petroleum and chemical product demand. The main feature of the work is the development of a methodology for the simultaneous analysis of process network integration within a multisite refinery and petrochemical system. Then we extend the petroleum refinery and petrochemical industry integration problem to consider different sources of uncertainties in model parameters. Parameter uncertainty considered includes imported crude oil price, refinery product price, petrochemical product price, refinery market demand, and petrochemical lower level product demand. We apply the sample average approximation (SAA) method within an iterative scheme to generate the required scenarios and provide solution quality by measuring the optimality gap of the final solution

Petroleum refinery scheduling with consideration for uncertainty

Scheduling refinery operation promises a big cut in logistics cost, maximizes efficiency, organizes allocation of material and resources, and ensures that production meets targets set by planning team. Obtaining accurate and reliable schedules for execution in refinery plants under different scenarios has been a serious challenge. This research was undertaken with the aim to develop robust methodologies and solution procedures to address refinery scheduling problems with uncertainties in process parameters. The research goal was achieved by first developing a methodology for short-term crude oil unloading and transfer, as an extension to a scheduling model reported by Lee et al. (1996). The extended model considers real life technical issues not captured in the original model and has shown to be more reliable through case studies. Uncertainties due to disruptive events and low inventory at the end of scheduling horizon were addressed. With the extended model, crude oil scheduling problem was formulated under receding horizon control framework to address demand uncertainty. This work proposed a strategy called fixed end horizon whose efficiency in terms of performance was investigated and found out to be better in comparison with an existing approach. In the main refinery production area, a novel scheduling model was developed. A large scale refinery problem was used as a case study to test the model with scheduling horizon discretized into a number of time periods of variable length. An equivalent formulation with equal interval lengths was also presented and compared with the variable length formulation. The results obtained clearly show the advantage of using variable timing. A methodology under self-optimizing control (SOC) framework was then developed to address uncertainty in problems involving mixed integer formulation. Through case study and scenarios, the approach has proven to be efficient in dealing with uncertainty in crude oil composition

A Hybrid of Stochastic Programming Approaches with Economic and Operational Risk Management for Petroleum Refinery Planning under Uncertainty

In view of the current situation of fluctuating high crude oil prices, it is now more important than ever for petroleum refineries to operate at an optimal level in the present dynamic global economy. Acknowledging the shortcomings of deterministic models, this work proposes a hybrid of stochastic programming formulations for an optimal midterm refinery planning that addresses three factors of uncertainties, namely price of crude oil and saleable products, product demand, and production yields. An explicit stochastic programming technique is utilized by employing compensating slack variables to account for violations of constraints in order to increase model tractability. Four approaches are considered to ensure both solution and model robustness: (1) the Markowitz’s mean–variance (MV) model to handle randomness in the objective coefficients of prices by minimizing variance of the expected value of the random coefficients; (2) the two-stage stochastic programming with fixed recourse approach via scenario analysis to model randomness in the right-hand side and left-hand side coefficients by minimizing the expected recourse penalty costs due to constraints’ violations; (3) incorporation of the MV model within the framework developed in Approach 2 to minimize both the expectation and variance of the recourse costs; and (4) reformulation of the model in Approach 3 by adopting mean-absolute deviation (MAD) as the risk metric imposed by the recourse costs for a novel application to the petroleum refining industry. A representative numerical example is illustrated with the resulting outcome of higher net profits and increased robustness in solutions proposed by the stochastic models

A framework for the near-real-time optimization of integrated oil & gas midstream processing networks

The oil and gas industry plays a key role in the world’s economy. Vast quantities of crude oil, their by-products and derivatives are produced, processed and distributed every day. Indeed, producing and processing significant volumes of crude oil requires connecting to wells in different fields that are usually spread across large geographical areas. This crude oil is then processed by Gas Oil Separation Plants (GOSPs). These facilities are often grouped into clusters that are within approximate distance from each other and then connected laterally via swing lines which allow shifting part or all of the production from one GOSP to another. Transfer lines also exist to allow processing intermediate products in neighbouring GOSPs, thereby increasing complexity and possible interactions. In return, this provides an opportunity to leverage mathematical optimization to improve network planning and load allocation. Similarly, in major oil producing countries, vast gas processing networks exist to process associated and non-associated gases. These gas plants are often located near major feed sources. Similar to GOSPs, they are also often connected through swing lines, which allow shifting feedstock from some plants to others. GOSPs and gas plants are often grouped as oil and gas midstream plants. These plants are operated on varied time horizons and plant boundaries. While plant operators are concerned with the day-to-day operation of their facility, network operators must ensure that the entire network is operated optimally and that product supply is balanced with demand. They are therefore in charge of allocating load to individual plants, while knowing each plants constraints and processing capabilities. Network planners are also in charge of producing production plans at varied time-scales, which vary from yearly to monthly and near-real time. This work aims to establish a novel framework for optimizing Oil and Gas Midstream plants for near-real time network operation. This topic has not been specifically addressed in the existing literature. It examines problems which involve operating networks of GOSPs and gas plants towards an optimal solution. It examines various modelling approaches which are suited for this specific application. It then focuses at this stage of the research on the GOSP optimization problem where it addresses optimizing the operation of a complex network of GOSPs. The goal is to operate this network such that oil production targets are met at minimum energy consumption, and therefore minimizing OpEx and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Similarly, it is often required to operate the network such that production is maximized. This thesis proposes a novel methodology to formulate and solve this problem. It describes the level of fidelity used to represent physical process units. A Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) problem is then formulated and solved to optimize load allocation, swing line flowrates and equipment utilization. The model demonstrates advanced capabilities to systematically prescribe optimal operating points. This was then applied to an existing integrated network of GOSPs and tested at varying crude oil demand levels. The results demonstrate the ability to minimize energy consumption by up to 51% in the 50% throughput case while meeting oil production targets without added capital investment.Open Acces

Planning and optimising of petroleum industry supply chain and logistics under uncertainty

Petroleum industry has a major share in the world energy and industrial markets. In the recent years, petroleum industry has grown increasingly complex as a result of tighter competition, stricter environmental regulations and lower-margin profits. It is facing a challenging task to remain competitive in a globalised market, the fluctuating demand for petroleum products and the current situation of fluctuating high petroleum crude oil prices is a demonstration that markets and industries throughout the world are impacted by the uncertainty and volatility of the petroleum industry. These factors and others forced petroleum companies for a greater need in the strategic planning and optimisation in order to make decisions that satisfy conflicting multi-objective goals of maximising expected profit while simultaneously minimising risk. These decisions have to take into account uncertainties and constraints in factors such as the source and availability of raw material, production and distribution costs and expected market demand. The main aim of this research is the development of a strategic planning and optimising model suitable for use within the petroleum industry supply chain under different types of uncertainty. The petroleum supply chain consists of all those activities related to the petroleum industry, from the recovery of raw materials to the distribution of the finished product. This network of activities forms the basis of the proposed mathematical and simulation models. Mathematical model of two-stage stochastic linear programming taking into consideration the effect of uncertainty in market demand is developed to address the strategic planning and optimisation of petroleum supply chain. GAMS software is used to solve the proposed mathematical models for this research. Arena simulation Software is utilised to develop a model for the proposed petroleum supply chain starting from crude oil supply to the system, going through three stages of separation processes and finally reaching the distillation stage. The model took into account the following factors: Input Rate, Oil Quality, Distillation Capacity and Number of Failed Separators which are analysed against the performance measures: Total Products and Equipment Utilisation. The results obtained from the experiment are analysed using SPSS Programme

Scheduling of crude oil and product blending and distribution operations in a refinery

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH