An information assistant system for the prevention of tunnel vision in crisis management

In the crisis management environment, tunnel vision is a set of bias in decision makers’ cognitive process which often leads to incorrect understanding of the real crisis situation, biased perception of information, and improper decisions. The tunnel vision phenomenon is a consequence of both the challenges in the task and the natural limitation in a human being’s cognitive process. An information assistant system is proposed with the purpose of preventing tunnel vision. The system serves as a platform for monitoring the on-going crisis event. All information goes through the system before arrives at the user. The system enhances the data quality, reduces the data quantity and presents the crisis information in a manner that prevents or repairs the user’s cognitive overload. While working with such a system, the users (crisis managers) are expected to be more likely to stay aware of the actual situation, stay open minded to possibilities, and make proper decisions

Does Intraindividual Variability of Personality States Improve Perspective Taking? An Ecological Approach Integrating Personality and Social Cognition

Research integrating cognitive abilities and personality has focused on the role of personality traits. We propose a theory on the role of intraindividual variability of personality states (hereafter state variability) on perspective taking, in particular, the ability to infer other peoples’ mental states. First, we review the relevant research on personality psychology and social cognition. Second, we propose two complementary routes by which state variability relates to anchoring and adjustment in perspective taking. The first route, termed ego-dispersion, suggests that an increased state variability decreases egocentric bias, which reduces anchoring. The second route, termed perspective-pooling, suggests that an increased state variability facilitates efficient adjustment. We also discuss how our theory can be investigated empirically. The theory is rooted in an ecological interpretation of personality and social cognition, and flags new ways for integrating these fields of research

Investigation of sequence features of hinge-bending regions in proteins with domain movements using kernel logistic regression

Background: Hinge-bending movements in proteins comprising two or more domains form a large class of functional movements. Hinge-bending regions demarcate protein domains and collectively control the domain movement. Consequently, the ability to recognise sequence features of hinge-bending regions and to be able to predict them from sequence alone would benefit various areas of protein research. For example, an understanding of how the sequence features of these regions relate to dynamic properties in multi-domain proteins would aid in the rational design of linkers in therapeutic fusion proteins. Results: The DynDom database of protein domain movements comprises sequences annotated to indicate whether the amino acid residue is located within a hinge-bending region or within an intradomain region. Using statistical methods and Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR) models, this data was used to determine sequence features that favour or disfavour hinge-bending regions. This is a difficult classification problem as the number of negative cases (intradomain residues) is much larger than the number of positive cases (hinge residues). The statistical methods and the KLR models both show that cysteine has the lowest propensity for hinge-bending regions and proline has the highest, even though it is the most rigid amino acid. As hinge-bending regions have been previously shown to occur frequently at the terminal regions of the secondary structures, the propensity for proline at these regions is likely due to its tendency to break secondary structures. The KLR models also indicate that isoleucine may act as a domain-capping residue. We have found that a quadratic KLR model outperforms a linear KLR model and that improvement in performance occurs up to very long window lengths (eighty residues) indicating long-range correlations. Conclusion: In contrast to the only other approach that focused solely on interdomain hinge-bending regions, the method provides a modest and statistically significant improvement over a random classifier. An explanation of the KLR results is that in the prediction of hinge-bending regions a long-range correlation is at play between a small number amino acids that either favour or disfavour hinge-bending regions. The resulting sequence-based prediction tool, HingeSeek, is available to run through a webserver at hingeseek.cmp.uea.ac.uk

The Key Role of Heavy Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in California

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (\u3e60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the 2060s, with a mean reduction of 6–14 days yr−1. This reduces California\u27s mean annual precipitation by about 5.7%. Partly offsetting this, 16 of the 25 projections agree that daily precipitation intensity will increase, which accounts for a model average 5.3% increase in annual precipitation. Between these conflicting tendencies, 12 projections show drier annual conditions by the 2060s and 13 show wetter. These results are obtained from 16 global general circulation models downscaled with different combinations of dynamical methods [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Spectral Model (RSM), and version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)] and statistical methods [bias correction with spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and bias correction with constructed analogs (BCCA)], although not all downscaling methods were applied to each global model. Model disagreements in the projected change in occurrence of the heaviest precipitation days (\u3e60 mm day−1) account for the majority of disagreement in the projected change in annual precipitation, and occur preferentially over the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. When such events are excluded, nearly twice as many projections show drier future conditions

The influence of external and internal motor processes on human auditory rhythm perception

Musical rhythm is composed of organized temporal patterns, and the processes underlying rhythm perception are found to engage both auditory and motor systems. Despite behavioral and neuroscience evidence converging to this audio-motor interaction, relatively little is known about the effect of specific motor processes on auditory rhythm perception. This doctoral thesis was devoted to investigating the influence of both external and internal motor processes on the way we perceive an auditory rhythm. The first half of the thesis intended to establish whether overt body movement had a facilitatory effect on our ability to perceive the auditory rhythmic structure, and whether this effect was modulated by musical training. To this end, musicians and non-musicians performed a pulse-finding task either using natural body movement or through listening only, and produced their identified pulse by finger tapping. The results showed that overt movement benefited rhythm (pulse) perception especially for non-musicians, confirming the facilitatory role of external motor activities in hearing the rhythm, as well as its interaction with musical training. The second half of the thesis tested the idea that indirect, covert motor input, such as that transformed from the visual stimuli, could influence our perceived structure of an auditory rhythm. Three experiments examined the subjectively perceived tempo of an auditory sequence under different visual motion stimulations, while the auditory and visual streams were presented independently of each other. The results revealed that the perceived auditory tempo was accordingly influenced by the concurrent visual motion conditions, and the effect was related to the increment or decrement of visual motion speed. This supported the hypothesis that the internal motor information extracted from the visuomotor stimulation could be incorporated into the percept of an auditory rhythm. Taken together, the present thesis concludes that, rather than as a mere reaction to the given auditory input, our motor system plays an important role in contributing to the perceptual process of the auditory rhythm. This can occur via both external and internal motor activities, and may not only influence how we hear a rhythm but also under some circumstances improve our ability to hear the rhythm.Musikalische Rhythmen bestehen aus zeitlich strukturierten Mustern akustischer Stimuli. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Prozesse, welche der Rhythmuswahrnehmung zugrunde liegen, sowohl motorische als auch auditive Systeme nutzen. Obwohl sich für diese auditiv-motorischen Interaktionen sowohl in den Verhaltenswissenschaften als auch Neurowissenschaften übereinstimmende Belege finden, weiß man bislang relativ wenig über die Auswirkungen spezifischer motorischer Prozesse auf die auditive Rhythmuswahrnehmung. Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht den Einfluss externaler und internaler motorischer Prozesse auf die Art und Weise, wie auditive Rhythmen wahrgenommen werden. Der erste Teil der Arbeit diente dem Ziel herauszufinden, ob körperliche Bewegungen es dem Gehirn erleichtern können, die Struktur von auditiven Rhythmen zu erkennen, und, wenn ja, ob dieser Effekt durch ein musikalisches Training beeinflusst wird. Um dies herauszufinden wurde Musikern und Nichtmusikern die Aufgabe gegeben, innerhalb von präsentierten auditiven Stimuli den Puls zu finden, wobei ein Teil der Probanden währenddessen Körperbewegungen ausführen sollte und der andere Teil nur zuhören sollte. Anschließend sollten die Probanden den gefundenen Puls durch Finger-Tapping ausführen, wobei die Reizgaben sowie die Reaktionen mittels eines computerisierten Systems kontrolliert wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass offen ausgeführte Bewegungen die Wahrnehmung des Pulses vor allem bei Nichtmusikern verbesserten. Diese Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass Bewegungen beim Hören von Rhythmen unterstützend wirken. Außerdem zeigte sich, dass hier eine Wechselwirkung mit dem musikalischen Training besteht. Der zweite Teil der Doktorarbeit überprüfte die Idee, dass indirekte, verdeckte Bewegungsinformationen, wie sie z.B. in visuellen Stimuli enthalten sind, die wahrgenommene Struktur von auditiven Rhythmen beeinflussen können. Drei Experimente untersuchten, inwiefern das subjektiv wahrgenommene Tempo einer akustischen Sequenz durch die Präsentation unterschiedlicher visueller Bewegungsreize beeinflusst wird, wobei die akustischen und optischen Stimuli unabhängig voneinander präsentiert wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass das wahrgenommene auditive Tempo durch die visuellen Bewegungsinformationen beeinflusst wird, und dass der Effekt in Verbindung mit der Zunahme oder Abnahme der visuellen Geschwindigkeit steht. Dies unterstützt die Hypothese, dass internale Bewegungsinformationen, welche aus visuomotorischen Reizen extrahiert werden, in die Wahrnehmung eines auditiven Rhythmus integriert werden können. Zusammen genommen, 5 zeigt die vorgestellte Arbeit, dass unser motorisches System eine wichtige Rolle im Wahrnehmungsprozess von auditiven Rhythmen spielt. Dies kann sowohl durch äußere als auch durch internale motorische Aktivitäten geschehen, und beeinflusst nicht nur die Art, wie wir Rhythmen hören, sondern verbessert unter bestimmten Bedingungen auch unsere Fähigkeit Rhythmen zu identifizieren

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 2: Case study results with and without satellite data

The variational multivariate assimilation method described in a companion paper by Achtemeier and Ochs is applied to conventional and conventional plus satellite data. Ground-based and space-based meteorological data are weighted according to the respective measurement errors and blended into a data set that is a solution of numerical forms of the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation for a dry atmosphere. The analyses serve first, to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and second to contrast the analyses with and without satellite data. Evaluation criteria measure the extent to which: (1) the assimilated fields satisfy the dynamical constraints, (2) the assimilated fields depart from the observations, and (3) the assimilated fields are judged to be realistic through pattern analysis. The last criterion requires that the signs, magnitudes, and patterns of the hypersensitive vertical velocity and local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components be physically consistent with respect to the larger scale weather systems