Re-considering the status quo: Improving calibration of land use change models through validation of transition potential predictions

The increasing complexity of the dynamics captured in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change modelling has made model behaviour less transparent and calibration more extensive. For cellular automata models in particular, this is compounded by the fact that validation is typically performed indirectly, using final simulated change maps; rather than directly considering the probabilistic predictions of transition potential. This study demonstrates that evaluating transition potential predictions provides detail into model behaviour and performance that cannot be obtained from simulated map comparison alone. This is illustrated by modelling LULC transitions in Switzerland using both Logistic Regression and Random Forests. The results emphasize the need for LULC modellers to explicitly consider the performance of individual transition models independently to ensure robust predictions. Additionally, this study highlights the potential for predictor variable selection as a means to improve transition model generalizability and parsimony, which is beneficial for simulating future LULC change

Simulating Land Use Land Cover Change Using Data Mining and Machine Learning Algorithms

The objectives of this dissertation are to: (1) review the breadth and depth of land use land cover (LUCC) issues that are being addressed by the land change science community by discussing how an existing model, Purdue\u27s Land Transformation Model (LTM), has been used to better understand these very important issues; (2) summarize the current state-of-the-art in LUCC modeling in an attempt to provide a context for the advances in LUCC modeling presented here; (3) use a variety of statistical, data mining and machine learning algorithms to model single LUCC transitions in diverse regions of the world (e.g. United States and Africa) in order to determine which tools are most effective in modeling common LUCC patterns that are nonlinear; (4) develop new techniques for modeling multiple class (MC) transitions at the same time using existing LUCC models as these models are rare and in great demand; (5) reconfigure the existing LTM for urban growth boundary (UGB) simulation because UGB modeling has been ignored by the LUCC modeling community, and (6) compare two rule based models for urban growth boundary simulation for use in UGB land use planning. The review of LTM applications during the last decade indicates that a model like the LTM has addressed a majority of land change science issues although it has not explicitly been used to study terrestrial biodiversity issues. The review of the existing LUCC models indicates that there is no unique typology to differentiate between LUCC model structures and no models exist for UGB. Simulations designed to compare multiple models show that ANN-based LTM results are similar to Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS)-based models and both ANN and MARS-based models outperform Classification and Regression Tree (CART)-based models for modeling single LULC transition; however, for modeling MC, an ANN-based LTM-MC is similar in goodness of fit to CART and both models outperform MARS in different regions of the world. In simulations across three regions (two in United States and one in Africa), the LTM had better goodness of fit measures while the outcome of CART and MARS were more interpretable and understandable than the ANN-based LTM. Modeling MC LUCC require the examination of several class separation rules and is thus more complicated than single LULC transition modeling; more research is clearly needed in this area. One of the greatest challenges identified with MC modeling is evaluating error distributions and map accuracies for multiple classes. A modified ANN-based LTM and a simple rule based UGBM outperformed a null model in all cardinal directions. For UGBM model to be useful for planning, other factors need to be considered including a separate routine that would determine urban quantity over time

Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe

Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. Forecasting of future land use land cover (LULC) change for the years 2034 and 2050 was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model for the current fast-growing Epworth district of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe. The stochastic CA–Markov modelling procedure validation yielded kappa statistics above 80%, ascertaining good agreement. The spatial distribution of the LULC classes CBD/Industrial area, water and irrigated croplands as projected for 2034 and 2050 show slight notable changes. For projected scenarios in 2034 and 2050, low–medium-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 11.1 km2 to 12.3 km2 between 2018 and 2050. Similarly, high-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 18.6 km2 to 22.4 km2 between 2018 and 2050. Assessment of the effects of future climate change on potential soil erosion risk for Epworth district were undertaken by applying the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios, and model ensemble averages from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the rainfall erosivity factor for the RUSLE model. Average soil loss rates for both climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were predicted to be high in 2034 due to the large spatial area extent of croplands and disturbed green spaces exposed to soil erosion processes, therefore increasing potential soil erosion risk, with RCP4.5 having more impact than RCP8.5 due to a higher applied rainfall erosivity. For 2050, the predicted wide area average soil loss rates declined for both climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, following the predicted decline in rainfall erosivity and vulnerable areas that are erodible. Overall, high potential soil erosion risk was predicted along the flanks of the drainage network for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050

Urban growth models and calibration methods: a case study of Athens, Greece

A number of urban growth models have been developed to simulate and predict urban expansion. Most of these models have common objectives; however, they differ in terms of calibration and execution methodologies. GIS spatial computations and data processing capabilities have given us the ability to draw more effective simulation results for increasingly complex scenarios. In this paper, we apply and evaluate a methodology to create a hybrid cellular-automaton- (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) using raster and vector data from the Urban Atlas project as well as other open data sources. We also present and evaluate three different methods to calibrate and evaluate the model. The model has been applied and evaluated by a case study on the city of Athens, Greece. However, it has been designed and developed with the aim of being applicable to any city available in the Urban Atlas project

Modeling Of Socio-economic Factors And Adverse Events In An Active War Theater By Using A Cellular Automata Simulation Approach

Department of Defense (DoD) implemented Human Social Cultural and Behavior (HSCB) program to meet the need to develop capability to understand, predict and shape human behavior among different cultures by developing a knowledge base, building models, and creating training capacity. This capability will allow decision makers to subordinate kinetic operations and promote non-kinetic operations to govern economic programs better in order to initiate efforts and development to address the grievances among the displeased by adverse events. These non-kinetic operations include rebuilding indigenous institutions’ bottom-up economic activity and constructing necessary infrastructure since the success in non-kinetic operations depends on understanding and using social and cultural landscape. This study aims to support decision makers by building a computational model to understand economic factors and their effect on adverse events. In this dissertation, the analysis demonstrates that the use of cellular automata has several significant contributions to support decision makers allocating development funds to stabilize regions with higher adverse event risks, and to better understand the complex socio-economic interactions with adverse events. Thus, this analysis was performed on a set of spatial data representing factors from social and economic data. In studying behavior using cellular automata, cells in the same neighborhood synchronously interact with each other to determine their next states, and small changes in iteration may yield to complex formations of adverse event risk after several iterations of time. The modeling methodology of cellular automata for social and economic analysis in this research was designed in two major implementation levels as follows: macro and micro-level. In the macro-level, the modeling framework integrates iv population, social, and economic sub-systems. The macro-level allows the model to use regionalized representations, while the micro-level analyses help to understand why the events have occurred. Macro-level subsystems support cellular automata rules to generate accurate predictions. Prediction capability of cellular automata is used to model the micro-level interactions between individual actors, which are represented by adverse events. The results of this dissertation demonstrate that cellular automata model is capable of evaluating socio-economic influences that result in changes in adverse events and identify location, time and impact of these events. Secondly, this research indicates that the socioeconomic influences have different levels of impact on adverse events, defined by the number of people killed, wounded or hijacked. Thirdly, this research shows that the socio-economic, influences and adverse events that occurred in a given district have impacts on adverse events that occur in neighboring districts. The cellular automata modeling approach can be used to enhance the capability to understand and use human, social and behavioral factors by generating what-if scenarios to determine the impact of different infrastructure development projects to predict adverse events. Lastly, adverse events that could occur in upcoming years can be predicted to allow decision makers to deter these events or plan accordingly if these events do occur