Variable selection for fault detection and identification based on mutual information of alarm series

Reducing the dimensionality of a fault detection and identification problem is often a necessity, and variable selection is a practical way to do it. Methods based on mutual information have been successful in that regard, but their applicability to industrial processes is limited by characteristics of the process variables such as their variability across fault occurrences. The paper introduces a new estimation strategy of mutual information criteria using alarm series to improve the robustness of the variable selection. The minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance criterion on alarm series is suggested as new reference criterion, and the results are validated on a multiphase flow facility

Fault detection and identification combining process measurements and statistical alarms

Classification-based methods for fault detection and identification can be difficult to implement in industrial systems where process measurements are subject to noise and to variability from one fault occurrence to another. This paper uses statistical alarms generated from process measurements to improve the robustness of the fault detection and identification on an industrial process. Two levels of alarms are defined according to the position of the alarm threshold: level-1 alarms (low severity threshold) and level-2 alarms (high severity threshold). Relevant variables are selected using the minimal-Redundancy-Maximal-Relevance criterion of level-2 alarms to only retain variables with large variations relative to the level of noise. The classification-based fault detection and identification fuses the results of a discrete Bayesian classifier on level-1 alarms and of a continuous Bayesian classifier on process measurements. The discrete classifier offers a practical way to deal with noise during the development of the fault, and the continuous classifier ensures a correct classification during later stages of the fault. The method is demonstrated on a multiphase flow facility

The blessings of explainable AI in operations & maintenance of wind turbines

Wind turbines play an integral role in generating clean energy, but regularly suffer from operational inconsistencies and failures leading to unexpected downtimes and significant Operations & Maintenance (O&M) costs. Condition-Based Monitoring (CBM) has been utilised in the past to monitor operational inconsistencies in turbines by applying signal processing techniques to vibration data. The last decade has witnessed growing interest in leveraging Supervisory Control & Acquisition (SCADA) data from turbine sensors towards CBM. Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been utilised to predict incipient faults in turbines and forecast vital operational parameters with high accuracy by leveraging SCADA data and alarm logs. More recently, Deep Learning (DL) methods have outperformed conventional ML techniques, particularly for anomaly prediction. Despite demonstrating immense promise in transitioning to Artificial Intelligence (AI), such models are generally black-boxes that cannot provide rationales behind their predictions, hampering the ability of turbine operators to rely on automated decision making. We aim to help combat this challenge by providing a novel perspective on Explainable AI (XAI) for trustworthy decision support.This thesis revolves around three key strands of XAI – DL, Natural Language Generation (NLG) and Knowledge Graphs (KGs), which are investigated by utilising data from an operational turbine. We leverage DL and NLG to predict incipient faults and alarm events in the turbine in natural language as well as generate human-intelligible O&M strategies to assist engineers in fixing/averting the faults. We also propose specialised DL models which can predict causal relationships in SCADA features as well as quantify the importance of vital parameters leading to failures. The thesis finally culminates with an interactive Question- Answering (QA) system for automated reasoning that leverages multimodal domain-specific information from a KG, facilitating engineers to retrieve O&M strategies with natural language questions. By helping make turbines more reliable, we envisage wider adoption of wind energy sources towards tackling climate change

Machine Learning Framework for Causal Modeling for Process Fault Diagnosis and Mechanistic Explanation Generation

Machine learning models, typically deep learning models, often come at the cost of explainability. To generate explanations of such systems, models need to be rooted in first-principles, at least mechanistically. In this work we look at a gamete of machine learning models based on different levels of process knowledge for process fault diagnosis and generating mechanistic explanations of processes. In chapter 1, we introduce the thesis using a range of problems from causality, explainability, aiming towards the goal of generating mechanistic explanations of process systems. Chapter 2 looks at an approach for generating causal models purely through data-centric approach, with minimal process knowledge with respect to equipment connectivity and identifying causality in the domains. These causal models generated can be utilized for process fault diagnosis. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 show how deep learning models can be used for both classification for process fault diagnosis and regression. We see that depending on the hyperparameters, i.e., purely the breadth and depth of a neural network, the learned hidden representations vary from a simple set of features, to more complex sets of features. While these hidden representations may be exploited to aid in classification and regression problems, the true explanations of these representations do not correlate with mechanisms in the system of interest. There is thus a requirement to add more mechanistic information about the features generated to aid in explainability. Chapter 5 shows how incorporating process knowledge can aid in generating such mechanistic explanations based on automated variable transformations. In this chapter we show how process knowledge can be used to generate features, or model forms to generate explainable models. These models have the ability of extracting the true models of the system from the model knowledge provided

Control Architecture Modeling for Future Power Systems

Uncontrollable power generation, distributed energy resources, controllable demand, etc. are fundamental aspects of energy systems largely based on renewable energy supply. These technologies have in common that they contradict the conventional categories of electric power system operation. As their introduction has proceeded incrementally in the past, operation strategies of the power system could be adapted. For example much more wind power could be integrated than originally anticipated, largely due to the flexibility reserves already present in the power system, and the possibility of interregional electricity exchange. However, at the same time, it seems that the overall system design cannot keep up by simply adapting in response to changes, but that also new strategies have to be designed in anticipation. Changes to the electricity markets have been suggested to adapt to the limited predictability of wind power, and several new control strategies have been proposed, in particular to enable the control of distributed energy resources, including for example, distributed generation or electric vehicles. Market designs addressing the procurement of balancing resources are highly dependent on the operation strategies specifying the resource requirements. How should one decide which control strategy and market configuration is best for a future power system? Most research up to this point has addressed single isolated aspects of this design problem. Those of the ideas that fit with current markets and operation concepts are lucky; they can be evaluated on the present design. But how could they be evaluated on a potential future power system? Approaches are required that support the design and evaluation of power system operation and control in context of future energy scenarios. This work addresses this challenge, not by providing a universal solution, but by providing basic modeling methodology that enables better problem formulation and by suggesting an approach to addressing the general chicken/egg problem of planning and re-design of system operation and control. The dissertation first focuses on the development of models, diagrams, that support the conceptual design of control and operation strategies, where a central theme is the focus on modeling system goals and functions rather than system structure. The perspective is then shifted toward long-term energy scenarios and adaptation of power system operation, considering the integration of energy scenario models with the re-design of operation strategies. The main contributions in the first part are, firstly, by adaptation of an existing functional modeling approach called Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) to the power systems domain, identifying the means-ends composition of control levels and development of principles for the consistent modeling of control structures, a formalization of control-as-a-service; secondly, the formal mapping of fluctuating and controllable resources to a multi-scale and multi-stage representation of control and operation structures; and finally the application to some concrete study cases, including a present system balancing, and proposed control structures such as Microgrids and Cells. In the second part, the main contributions are the outline of a formation strategy, integrating the design and model-based evaluation of future power system operation concepts with iterative energy scenario development. Finally, a new modeling framework for development and evaluation of power system operation in context of energy-storage based power system balancing is introduced.<br/