Adaptation of WASH Services Delivery to Climate Change and Other Sources of Risk and Uncertainty

This report urges WASH sector practitioners to take more seriously the threat of climate change and the consequences it could have on their work. By considering climate change within a risk and uncertainty framework, the field can use the multitude of approaches laid out here to adequately protect itself against a range of direct and indirect impacts. Eleven methods and tools for this specific type of risk management are described, including practical advice on how to implement them successfully

Fit for planning? An evaluation of the application of development viability appraisal models in the UK planning system

The aim of this paper is to critically examine the application of development appraisal to viability assessment in the planning system. This evaluation is of development appraisal models in general and also their use in particular applications associated with estimating planning obligation capacity. The paper is organised into four themes: · The context and conceptual basis for development viability appraisal · A review of development viability appraisal methods · A discussion of selected key inputs into a development viability appraisal · A discussion of the applications of development viability appraisals in the planning system It is assumed that readers are familiar with the basic models and information needs of development viability appraisal rather than at the cutting edge of practice and/or academ

Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed

A decision support system for demand and capacity modelling of an accident and emergency department

© 2019 Operational Research Society.Accident and emergency (A&E) departments in England have been struggling against severe capacity constraints. In addition, A&E demands have been increasing year on year. In this study, our aim was to develop a decision support system combining discrete event simulation and comparative forecasting techniques for the better management of the Princess Alexandra Hospital in England. We used the national hospital episodes statistics data-set including period April, 2009 – January, 2013. Two demand conditions are considered: the expected demand condition is based on A&E demands estimated by comparing forecasting methods, and the unexpected demand is based on the closure of a nearby A&E department due to budgeting constraints. We developed a discrete event simulation model to measure a number of key performance metrics. This paper presents a crucial study which will enable service managers and directors of hospitals to foresee their activities in future and form a strategic plan well in advance.Peer reviewe

Overview of methods to analyse dynamic data

This book gives an overview of existing data analysis methods to analyse the dynamic data obtained from full scale testing, with their advantages and drawbacks. The overview of full scale testing and dynamic data analysis is limited to energy performance characterization of either building components or whole buildings. The methods range from averaging and regression methods to dynamic approaches based on system identification techniques. These methods are discussed in relation to their application in following in situ measurements: -measurement of thermal transmittance of building components based on heat flux meters; -measurement of thermal and solar transmittance of building components tested in outdoor calorimetric test cells; -measurement of heat transfer coefficient and solar aperture of whole buildings based on co-heating or transient heating tests; -characterisation of the energy performance of whole buildings based on energy use monitoring

Effect of distributed energy systems on the electricity grid

A feasibility study is being carried out at Ecotricity into a distributed energy storage system comprising Energy stores (batteries) placed at consumer level (in customer’s homes). The aim is to flatten consumer demand and make better use of home-based generation. The Study Group considered the mechanism of connecting batteries to the local distribution system, the ability to meet engineering requirements for the standard of the connection, and the potential impact of large numbers of such connections on stability of the local distribution network. Network and (DC-AC) invertor models were used to examine network connection transients. A statistical model was proposed to estimate the distribution of key electrical parameters to determine the likelihood of engineering standards being exceeded. The Study Group also considered stochastic methods of modelling wind speed, to better understand the requirements for battery energy storage as a complement to wind power