Calibrating Path Choices and Train Capacities for Urban Rail Transit Simulation Models Using Smart Card and Train Movement Data

Transit network simulation models are often used for performance and retrospective analysis of urban rail systems, taking advantage of the availability of extensive automated fare collection (AFC) and automated vehicle location (AVL) data. Important inputs to such models, in addition to origin-destination flows, include passenger path choices and train capacity. Train capacity, which has often been overlooked in the literature, is an important input that exhibits a lot of variabilities. The paper proposes a simulation-based optimization (SBO) framework to simultaneously calibrate path choices and train capacity for urban rail systems using AFC and AVL data. The calibration is formulated as an optimization problem with a black-box objective function. Seven algorithms from four branches of SBO solving methods are evaluated. The algorithms are evaluated using an experimental design that includes five scenarios, representing different degrees of path choice randomness and crowding sensitivity. Data from the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) system is used as a case study. The data is used to generate synthetic observations used as "ground truth". The results show that the response surface methods (particularly Constrained Optimization using Response Surfaces) have consistently good performance under all scenarios. The proposed approach drives large-scale simulation applications for monitoring and planning

Assigning Passenger Flows on a Metro Network Based on Automatic Fare Collection Data and Timetable

Assigning passenger flows on a metro network plays an important role in passenger flow analysis that is the foundation of metro operation. Traditional transit assignment models are becoming increasingly complex and inefficient. These models may even not be valid in case of sudden changes in the timetable or disruptions in the metro system. We propose a methodology for assigning passenger flows on a metro network based on automatic fare collection (AFC) data and realized timetable. We find that the routes connecting a given origin and destination (O-D) pair are related to their observed travel times (OTTs) especially their pure travel times (PTTs) abstracted from AFC data combined with the realized timetable. A novel clustering algorithm is used to cluster trips between a given O-D pair based on PTTs/OTTs and complete the assignment. An initial application to categorical O-D pairs on the Shanghai metro system, which is one of the largest systems in the world, shows that the proposed methodology works well. Accompanying the initial application, an interesting approach is also provided for determining the theoretical maximum accuracy of the new assignment model

Dispatching and Rescheduling Tasks and Their Interactions with Travel Demand and the Energy Domain: Models and Algorithms

Abstract The paper aims to provide an overview of the key factors to consider when performing reliable modelling of rail services. Given our underlying belief that to build a robust simulation environment a rail service cannot be considered an isolated system, also the connected systems, which influence and, in turn, are influenced by such services, must be properly modelled. For this purpose, an extensive overview of the rail simulation and optimisation models proposed in the literature is first provided. Rail simulation models are classified according to the level of detail implemented (microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic), the variables involved (deterministic and stochastic) and the processing techniques adopted (synchronous and asynchronous). By contrast, within rail optimisation models, both planning (timetabling) and management (rescheduling) phases are discussed. The main issues concerning the interaction of rail services with travel demand flows and the energy domain are also described. Finally, in an attempt to provide a comprehensive framework an overview of the main metaheuristic resolution techniques used in the planning and management phases is shown

RESEARCH ON URBAN TRANSIT RELIABILITY USING SMART CARD DATA

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Applications of Genetic Algorithm and Its Variants in Rail Vehicle Systems: A Bibliometric Analysis and Comprehensive Review

Railway systems are time-varying and complex systems with nonlinear behaviors that require effective optimization techniques to achieve optimal performance. Evolutionary algorithms methods have emerged as a popular optimization technique in recent years due to their ability to handle complex, multi-objective issues of such systems. In this context, genetic algorithm (GA) as one of the powerful optimization techniques has been extensively used in the railway sector, and applied to various problems such as scheduling, routing, forecasting, design, maintenance, and allocation. This paper presents a review of the applications of GAs and their variants in the railway domain together with bibliometric analysis. The paper covers highly cited and recent studies that have employed GAs in the railway sector and discuss the challenges and opportunities of using GAs in railway optimization problems. Meanwhile, the most popular hybrid GAs as the combination of GA and other evolutionary algorithms methods such as particle swarm optimization (PSO), ant colony optimization (ACO), neural network (NN), fuzzy-logic control, etc with their dedicated application in the railway domain are discussed too. More than 250 publications are listed and classified to provide a comprehensive analysis and road map for experts and researchers in the field helping them to identify research gaps and opportunities

The Development and Deployment of a GIS tool for Transit Network Design

Public transportation contributes to sustainable transportation in urban areas. Unfortunately, in some cases public transit systems have been underperforming. Over the years, factors such as urban sprawl and the increase in private vehicle ownership have led to challenges for public transportation providers. The lack of investment in transit infrastructure has resulted in transit agencies being under resourced which further limit the agencies’ ability to respond. Realizing the need to change and move towards a more sustainable and balanced transportation system, governments have begun to invest more and more in transportation infrastructure projects. In order to encourage public transportation, focus has shifted to improving the quality of transit service being provided. There are many ways in which transit improvements can be made. The problem that describes the design of a public transportation network is referred to as the transit network design problem (TNDP). Much of the existing literature that addresses the TNDP describes methods that are rigorous and complex and have limited application in practice. Given the emergence of geographic information systems (GIS), there exists new opportunities to address the TNDP. This thesis presents a customized GIS tool that assists transit network design. The approach utilizes GIS to identify desire lines or major travel demand corridors from which trunk transit routes are proposed and evaluated. The GIS tool is built using VBA scripting in ArcMap 9.3 part of ESRI’s general ArcGIS suite but the underlying GIS functionality needed by the tool is not limited to ESRI software. The tool offers a proven methodology for use within transit network design and evaluation at a level of resource requirement that is consistent with most transit agencies. The tool has been customized to minimize the need for GIS training and to maximize its adaptability for application in multiple cities. The analyst applying the tools must have substantial knowledge of local conditions. The tool is applied to the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, at the TAZ (traffic analysis zone) level using population and employment data. A street network with corresponding posted speeds on each link and the location of signalized intersections were also used in the analysis. The results of the analysis depicted major flows throughout Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge. Unique flows from students, major employers and an analysis of average income levels also provide input into the major demand corridors. From these results seven high order transit routes were designed to accommodate the major demand corridors. From the results it was found that GIS can be used to depict major demand corridors and inform transit network design. GIS is an excellent tool that can display complex information and visually identify spatial patterns. Further research includes the development of a model that evaluates network alternatives or the development of quantitative methods by which limits on aggregation can be automated

Splitting Travel Time Based on AFC Data: Estimating Walking, Waiting, Transfer, and In-Vehicle Travel Times in Metro System

The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route’s travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC) system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated

Modelling of interactions between rail service and travel demand: a passenger-oriented analysis

The proposed research is situated in the field of design, management and optimisation in railway network operations. Rail transport has in its favour several specific features which make it a key factor in public transport management, above all in high-density contexts. Indeed, such a system is environmentally friendly (reduced pollutant emissions), high-performing (high travel speeds and low values of headways), competitive (low unitary costs per seat-km or carried passenger-km) and presents a high degree of adaptability to intermodality. However, it manifests high vulnerability in the case of breakdowns. This occurs because a faulty convoy cannot be easily overtaken and, sometimes, cannot be easily removed from the line, especially in the case of isolated systems (i.e. systems which are not integrated into an effective network) or when a breakdown occurs on open tracks. Thus, re-establishing ordinary operational conditions may require excessive amounts of time and, as a consequence, an inevitable increase in inconvenience (user generalised cost) for passengers, who might decide to abandon the system or, if already on board, to exclude the railway system from their choice set for the future. It follows that developing appropriate techniques and decision support tools for optimising rail system management, both in ordinary and disruption conditions, would consent a clear influence of the modal split in favour of public transport and, therefore, encourage an important reduction in the externalities caused by the use of private transport, such as air and noise pollution, traffic congestion and accidents, bringing clear benefits to the quality of life for both transport users and non-users (i.e. individuals who are not system users). Managing to model such a complex context, based on numerous interactions among the various components (i.e. infrastructure, signalling system, rolling stock and timetables) is no mean feat. Moreover, in many cases, a fundamental element, which is the inclusion of the modelling of travel demand features in the simulation of railway operations, is neglected. Railway transport, just as any other transport system, is not finalised to itself, but its task is to move people or goods around, and, therefore, a realistic and accurate cost-benefit analysis cannot ignore involved flows features. In particular, considering travel demand into the analysis framework presents a two-sided effect. Primarily, it leads to introduce elements such as convoy capacity constraints and the assessment of dwell times as flow-dependent factors which make the simulation as close as possible to the reality. Specifically, the former allows to take into account the eventuality that not all passengers can board the first arriving train, but only a part of them, due to overcrowded conditions, with a consequent increase in waiting times. Due consideration of this factor is fundamental because, if it were to be repeated, it would make a further contribution to passengers’ discontent. While, as regards the estimate of dwell times on the basis of flows, it becomes fundamental in the planning phase. In fact, estimating dwell times as fixed values, ideally equal for all runs and all stations, can induce differences between actual and planned operations, with a subsequent deterioration in system performance. Thus, neglecting these aspects, above all in crowded contexts, would render the simulation distorted, both in terms of costs and benefits. The second aspect, on the other hand, concerns the correct assessment of effects of the strategies put in place, both in planning phases (strategic decisions such as the realisation of a new infrastructure, the improvement of the current signalling system or the purchasing of new rolling stock) and in operational phases (operational decisions such as the definition of intervention strategies for addressing disruption conditions). In fact, in the management of failures, to date, there are operational procedures which are based on hypothetical times for re-establishing ordinary conditions, estimated by the train driver or by the staff of the operation centre, who, generally, tend to minimise the impact exclusively from the company’s point of view (minimisation of operational costs), rather than from the standpoint of passengers. Additionally, in the definition of intervention strategies, passenger flow and its variation in time (different temporal intervals) and space (different points in the railway network) are rarely considered. It appears obvious, therefore, how the proposed re-examination of the dispatching and rescheduling tasks in a passenger-orientated perspective, should be accompanied by the development of estimation and forecasting techniques for travel demand, aimed at correctly taking into account the peculiarities of the railway system; as well as by the generation of ad-hoc tools designed to simulate the behaviour of passengers in the various phases of the trip (turnstile access, transfer from the turnstiles to the platform, waiting on platform, boarding and alighting process, etc.). The latest workstream in this present study concerns the analysis of the energy problems associated to rail transport. This is closely linked to what has so far been described. Indeed, in order to implement proper energy saving policies, it is, above all, necessary to obtain a reliable estimate of the involved operational times (recovery times, inversion times, buffer times, etc.). Moreover, as the adoption of eco-driving strategies generates an increase in passenger travel times, with everything that this involves, it is important to investigate the trade-off between energy efficiency and increase in user generalised costs. Within this framework, the present study aims at providing a DSS (Decision Support System) for all phases of planning and management of rail transport systems, from that of timetabling to dispatching and rescheduling, also considering space-time travel demand variability as well as the definition of suitable energy-saving policies, by adopting a passenger-orientated perspective