2,415 research outputs found

    Microsimulation - A Survey of Methods and Applications for Analyzing Economic and Social Policy

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    This essential dimensions of microsimulation as an instrument to analyze and forecast the individual impacts of alternative economic and social policy measures are surveyed in this study. The basic principles of microsimulation, which is a tool for practical policy advising as well as for research and teaching, are pointed out and the static and dynamic (cross-section and life-cycle) approaches are compared to one another. Present and past developments of microsimulation models and their areas of application are reviewed, focusing on the US, Europe and Australia. Based on general requirements and components of microsimulation models a microsimulation model's actual working mechanism are discussed by a concrete example: the concept and realization of MICSIM, a PC microsimulation model based on a relational database system, an offspring of the Sfb 3 Statitic Microsimulation Model. Common issues of microsimulation modeling are regarded: micro/macro link, behavioural response and the important question of evaluating microsimulation results. The concluding remarks accentuate the increasing use of microcomputers for microsimulation models also for teaching purposes.Microsimulation, Microanalytic Simulation Models, Microanalysis, Economic and Social Policy Analysis

    The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

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    This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

    What makes the Difference between Unsuccessful and Successful Firms in the German Mechanical Engineering Industry?

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    Against a background of rising costs and increasing competition, it is besoming more and more difficult for the small and medium-sized firms of the German mechanical engineering industry to be economically successful. The thesis that rapidly changing markets, products and production processes cause serious economic problems for these firms is, however, a proposition on an average trend. A substantial number of firms are not only capable of coping with these conditions and challenges, but are even able to expand their business activities, including employment. We may hypothesize that their product and market strategies as well as their internal mode of operation and organization differs significantly from those firms doing economically less well. In order to test the significance of factors which could lead to different levels of success, operationalized with data of the NIFA panel the method of static microsimulation is applied using the program MICSIM. This particular method offers the possibility of reweighting the information contained in micro datasets according to restrictions given by aggregated data (i.e. marginal distributions). The latter will be chosen in such a way that the number of firms with properties (strategies), hypothetically leading to success in terms of lower excess capacity, are 'artificially', increased in the sample. The research goal is to find out whether such hypothetical strategies are supported by the data. The basic finding that certain complex strategies are more often successful demonstrates that unidimensional approaches to modernize production are of less value. Only in those strategies wehere organization of production, technical equipment, degree of vertical integration, products and customers are part of an intergrated innovational strategy, is success most likely to be fuelled.economic succes, NIFA PANEL, microsimulation, engineering

    Methodological aspects of the SAVE data set

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    This paper describes the general design of the SAVE survey: the design of the questionnaire, inter-viewer and interviewee motivation, and the sampling designs of the various subsamples collected in 2001 and 2003. It discusses the representativeness of the data, explains the construction of weights, and provides probit regressions to analyse potential selectivity problems. The paper finishes by discussing implications for the use of the SAVE data in various estimation procedures.

    Representative Time Use Data and Calibration of the American Time Use Studies 1965-1999

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    Valid and reliable individual time use data in connection with an appriate set of socio -economic background variables are essential elements of an empirical foundation and evaluation of existing time use theories and for the search of new empirical-based hypotheses about individual behavior. Within the Yale project of Assessing American Heritage Time Use Studies (1965, 1975, 19895, 1992-94 and 1998/99), supported by the Glaser Foundation, and working with these time use studies, it is necessary to be sure about comparable representative data. As it will become evident, there is a serious bias in all of these files concerning demographic characteristics, characteristics which are important for substantive time use research analyses. Our study and new calibration solution will circumvent these biases by delivering a comprehensive demographic adjustment for all incorporated U.S. time use surveys, which is theoretically funded (here by information theory and the minimum information loss principle with its ADJUST program package), is consistent by a simultaneous weighting including hierarchical data, considers substantial requirements for time use research analyses and is similar and thus comparable in the demographic adjustment characteristics for all U.S. time use files to support substantial analyses and allows to disentangle demographic vs. time use behavioral changes and developments.time use, calibration (adjustment re-weighting) of microdata, information theory, minimum information loss principle, American Heritage Time Use Studies, ADJUST program package

    Regulatory reforms of European network industries and the courts

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    Regulatory reforms in European network industries are strongly influenced by legal decisions. The cases considered in this paper not only initiated the liberali-zation process of the markets for network services but also provided an impor-tant signaling function for the remaining regulatory problems: localization of network-specific market power, abolishment of grandfathering rights, ex ante regulation of network-specific market power instead of negotiated unregulated network access, incentive regulation instead of cost-based regulation. The process towards sector-symmetric market power regulation based on economi-cally founded principles gains increasing relevance. Nevertheless, there are fur-ther reform potentials to be exhausted in the future. --

    Quantile Treatment Effects in the Regression Discontinuity Design

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    This paper shows nonparametric identification of quantile treatment effects (QTE) in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and proposes simple estimators. Quantile treatment effects are a very helpful tool to characterize the effects of certain interventions on the outcome distribution. The distributional impacts of social programs such as welfare, education, training programs and unemployment insurance are of large interest to economists.quantile treatment effect, causal effect, endogeneity, regression discontinuity

    Classification of Human Decision Behavior: Finding Modular Decision Rules with Genetic Algorithms

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    The understanding of human behavior in sequential decision tasks is important for economics and socio-psychological sciences. In search tasks, for example when individuals search for the best price of a product, they are confronted in sequential steps with different situations and they have to decide whether to continue or stop searching. The decision behavior of individuals in such search tasks is described by a search strategy. This paper presents a new approach of finding high-quality search strategies by using genetic algorithms (GAs). Only the structure of the search strategies and the basic building blocks (price thresholds and price patterns) that can be used for the search strategies are pre-specified. It is the purpose of the GA to construct search strategies that well describe human search behavior. The search strategies found by the GA are able to predict human behavior in search tasks better than traditional search strategies from the literature which are usually based on theoretical assumptions about human behavior in search tasks. Furthermore, the found search strategies are reasonable in the sense that they can be well interpreted, and generally that means they describe the search behavior of a larger group of individuals and allow some kind of categorization and classification. The results of this study open a new perspective for future research in developing behavioral strategies. Instead of deriving search strategies from theoretical assumptions about human behavior, researchers can directly analyze human behavior in search tasks and find appropriate and high- quality search strategies. These can be used for gaining new insights into the motivation behind human search and for developing new theoretical models about human search behavior.
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