Predicting Graduation and College GPA: A Multilevel Analysis Investigating the Contextual Effect of College Major

Despite the overwhelming evidence that higher education data are nested at various levels, single-level techniques such as regression and analysis of variance are commonly used to investigate student outcomes. This is problematic as a mismatch in methodology and research questions can lead to biased parameter estimates. The purpose of this study was to predict cumulative grade point average (GPA) and the likelihood of four-year and six-year graduation while simultaneously accounting for select pre-college characteristics, during-college experiences, and the interrelationship between student-level and major-level predictors. To achieve the desired outcomes, the study applied multilevel modeling techniques to secondary data for new undergraduate students first enrolling at one research institution in the Midwestern United States during Fall 2010 and Fall 2011. Results suggest that approximately 30% of the variation in cumulative GPA, 32% of the variation in four-year graduation, and 48% of the variation in six-year graduation can be attributed to differences in academic majors. Results also indicate that the strength of the student-level predictors of high school GPA, changing one’s major, first-year GPA, and student organization involvement vary across academic majors. Collectively, the study contributes to the application of quantitative research methodology in higher education by demonstrating a more accurate predictive model of academic success for undergraduate students

Internet Information and Communication Behavior during a Political Moment: The Iraq War, March 2003

This article explores the Internet as a resource for political information and communication in March 2003, when American troops were first sent to Iraq, offering us a unique setting of political context, information use, and technology. Employing a national survey conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life project. We examine the political information behavior of the Internet respondents through an exploratory factor analysis; analyze the effects of personal demographic attributes and political attitudes, traditional and new media use, and technology on online behavior through multiple regression analysis; and assess the online political information and communication behavior of supporters and dissenters of the Iraq War. The factor analysis suggests four factors: activism, support, information seeking, and communication. The regression analysis indicates that gender, political attitudes and beliefs, motivation, traditional media consumption, perceptions of bias in the media, and computer experience and use predict online political information behavior, although the effects of these variables differ for the four factors. The information and communication behavior of supporters and dissenters of the Iraq War differed significantly. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of "interdisciplinary poaching" for advancing the study of Internet information practices

Inconsistent Interventions? : The Effect of Operational Feasibility on U.S. Presidential Military Intervention Decisions

Why is there apparent inconsistency in U.S. presidential military intervention decisions when cases exhibit similar characteristics that other scholars have argued should be determinant, such as the magnitude of the conflict, economic ties, or domestic political support? For instance, President Clinton committed troops in Haiti (1994) but not in Rwanda (1994); and likewise, President George H.W. Bush intervened in Somalia (1992) but not in Bosnia (1992). Previous studies have held an implicit assumption: if the demand for action is high enough, an intervention will occur. This study moves the operative element of the decision calculus from demand to feasibility, attempting to answer the primary research question: what impact does operational feasibility have on U.S. presidential military intervention decisions? This research identifies what I call “feasibility factors,” which are based on military planning considerations and provide observable measures for the expectation of intervention success. Successful interventions are those that achieve the intervention mission within a short time horizon at acceptable costs. Using a mixed methods design incorporating both Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and an examination of National Security Council and presidential meeting archives, the study finds that the seemingly inconsistent behavior disappears when feasibility is included. Demand for intervention is necessary, but insufficient; only when there is enough demand and the operational feasibility factors are positively aligned do presidents intervene. This study provides three main contributions. First, it argues for feasibility’s inclusion in future intervention-focused studies. Second, this work elucidates the most prominent feasibility concerns for the policy community: the conflict type, whether there is a regime to intervene on behalf of, the enemy’s organization, and the logistical accessibility of the crisis region. Finally, this work provides an alternative logic for why presidents choose inaction despite overwhelming demand for intervention. Advisor: Ross A. Mille

Expressive Law and the Americans with Disabilities Act

The question of why people follow the law has long been a subject of scholarly consideration. Prevailing accounts of how law changes behavior coalesce around two major themes: legitimacy and deterrence. Advocates of legitimacy argue that law is obeyed when it is created through a legitimate process and its substance comports with community mores. Others emphasize deterrence, particularly those who subscribe to law-and-economics theories. These scholars argue that law makes certain socially undesirable behaviors more costly, and thus individuals are less likely to undertake them

The Formation and Stability of a Microbial Community

New communities form regularly in nature, as many species rush to colonise a freshly formed island, pool, or microbiome, but it is unclear what rules govern the arrangement of these founders into a smaller, stable community, or whether the process is predictable. I simultaneously inoculated a master mix of bacterial colonisers into 45 identical environments, and allowed them to compete and evolve for around three months. By the end of the experiment, the species compositions of these communities had split into two broad groups, defined mostly by the mutual exclusivity of two Pseudomonas species, which may represent the ecological equivalence of the two species. Due to this functional similarity, I propose that community formation may be predictable at an ecological level, if not a taxonomic level. I also explored one of the communities formed in this experiment in further detail, investigating the maintenance of its diversity and stability. The community was fairly stable, as every species was able to persist even when it began at a much lower population size than its competitors, and no diversity was lost after 4 weeks of culture. I grew the species from this community in monoculture, as well as in every possible pair, triplet, and quartet, to fully assess the network of interactions, and found evidence for many significant higher-order interactions, which have been shown to have a stabilising effect in theoretical models

An investigation of the relationship between student characteristics, the learning experience and academic achievement on an online distance learning MBA programme.

The main purpose of this study is to develop and test a conceptual framework of the antecedents of academic achievement for students studying online. The study is essentially exploratory in nature and an adaptation of Biggs’ 3P (Biggs, 1993a) model provides the theoretical framework. A wide range of antecedent variables is considered, including individual student characteristics and behavioural aspects of studying online. Uniquely, the study positions developmental aspects of the student learning experience (deconstructed at course level using an eight level developmental hierarchy derived from Bloom’s taxonomy (Bloom et al., 1956)) as an intermediate outcome. Regression models are calibrated to determine which factors influence both the student learning experience and academic achievement. Variation in the student learning experience (as an intermediate outcome) is explained by student satisfaction with course materials and certain individual student characteristics and behavioural aspects of online study. Disadvantaged students lack previous experience in the study of Economics; have certain learning styles (sensing and verbal); and in the online study context find it difficult both to interact with faculty and to work alone. In terms of academic achievement, the parsimonious model explains 48% of the variance in overall performance in the Economics exam. After student ability the next most important variables of significance relate to developmental aspects of the learning experience, specifically, the level of difficulty experienced both in applying theory to business problems and understanding numerical calculations. The policy implications of the findings are considered and specific recommendations are provided for the enhancement of Edinburgh Business School course resources. The research findings indicate that, in building a theoretical framework for online learning, there is merit in taking into account course-level developmental aspects of the student learning experience. As well as their significance in helping to explain variation in academic achievement, the insights gained on student learning facilitate the design and targeting of interventions to address specific educational needs. It is hoped that this approach may help to address some of the concerns that exist that, in education, technology is not always used in ways which enhance student learning

Pursuit of Professionalism in Bureaucracy: Perceptions About Bureaucratic Values of Civil Service Employees in the Ethnic Federalism of Ethiopia

In the 1980s an array of world events including the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a movement toward restructuring and downsizing government bureaucracies, and rapidly evolving technology prompted significant changes to governments. Many developing nations began the transition from command to market economies, and new government structures emerged to address a variety of root problems including the rise of ethnic consciousness and conflict. As a consequence of these events, changes in societies, governments, and bureaucracies, were drivers for changes to bureaucratic values. The current research addresses a gap in knowledge about bureaucratic values specifically in a government organized under the unique constitutional format of ethnic federalism. The study initiates research about the influence of single-party-based executive leadership and its influence on the development of bureaucratic values in a country transitioning to liberal democracy. These values are examined in the context of an ethnic federalism, namely, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. The study provides an empirical interpretation of Herbert Kaufman\u27s (1956) notion of competing bureaucratic values identified as: neutral competence, representativeness and executive leadership. These bureaucratic values are factors in the nexus of professional bureaucracy and the executive branch of government. Findings of the study, which are drawn from the results of a survey of Ethiopian civil service employees in 2002, support the efficacy of Competing Bureaucratic Values Theory in modeling perceptions about bureaucratic values. Empirical models representing the competing bureaucratic values of Neutral Competence, Representativeness and Executive Leadership were developed. These models had modest accuracy in predicting factors related to employees\u27 demographic and personal work characteristics and to factors related to employees\u27 perceptions about bureaucratic values. Significant predictors of bureaucratic values were found to vary across individual bureaucratic value models and in strength and direction. The research provides a theoretical framework to facilitate discourse about bureaucratic values in order to assist in the clarification of national bureaucratic values. Empirical information generated by the models may have an application in deliberations by the Civil Service, the polity, the government, and external entities in the development of public policy in line with national bureaucratic values

Times-To-Default:Life Cycle, Global and Industry Cycle Impact

This paper studies times-to-default of individual firms across risk classes. Using Standard & Poor’s ratings database we investigate common drivers of default probabilities and address two shortcomings of many papers in the credit literature. First, we identify relevant determinants of default intensities using business cycle and credit market proxies in addition to financial markets indicators, and reveal the time-span of their impacts. We show that misspecifications of financial based factor models are largely corrected by non financial information. Second, we show that past economic conditions are of prime importance in explaining probability changes: current shocks and long term trends jointly determine default probabilities. Finally, we exhibit industry contagion indicators which might be helpful to capture leading and persistency patterns of the default cycle.censored durations; proportional hazard; business cycle; credit cycle; default determinants; default prediction