A MEDICAL PRICE PREDICTION SYSTEM

The health care costs constitute a significant fraction of the U.S. economy. Nearly 20% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is spent on health care. The health spending in the US is the highest among all developed nations in absolute numbers as well as a percentage of the economy. The U.S. government bears a large portion of seniors’ health expenditure through its Medicare program. The growing health related expenses combined with the fact that the baby-boomer generation is retiring, and hence they will be eligible for Medicare, puts a great burden on the U.S. exchequer. Therefore, it is essential to contain health related payments through all means possible. In this work, we will develop a medical price prediction system using machine learning algorithms which will aid in steering patients to cost effective providers and thereby curb health spending. The policymakers can also use the tool to better understand which providers are relatively expensive and take punitive actions if necessary. The prediction of the medical price will be done using implementing Random Forest Regression algorithm in machine learning. Additionally, we plan to include the experiments on the same data with other machine learning models such as Gradient Boosted Trees and Linear Regression and compare results. The findings from these experiments will also be included

Ensemble Machine Learning to Predict Family Consent for Organ Donation

There is ever increasing disparity between number of organs needed for transplantation and numbers available for donation to save lives. As a result, thousands of people die every year waiting for organs. Therefore, it is now more important than ever before to take serious actions to decrease this disparity. One way to bridge gap between organ demand and supply is to increase family consent for organ donation. This research studied the factors associated with family consent. Machine Learning approach had been used in very few literature to understand factors related to family consent. This study uses six Ensemble Machine Learning models to accurately predict family consent outcome (yes/no). All family approaches data between January 2016 and March 2018 from an Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) based in New York city is used to build the family consent prediction model. The experimental results reveals that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) Machine Learning model performs better than other ensemble models with AUC of 0.8946 and accuracy of 81.7% after normalizing features and using LDA for dimension reduction and then tuning parameters using grid search method. 24 out of 29 features are identied as important features by XGB model. The model is used to calculate probability of consent before approaching family as the values for dierent features are available real-time after patient is referred to OPO for medical evaluation and suitability. The experimental result shows that the accuracy of the model increases from 77.6% to 91.5% as value for factors are added real-time. This model is also used for selecting the best sta for a particular case to approach family based on their past experience. Sta work schedule is incorporated with the model to select the top three sta based on likelihood of getting consent from family for organ donation. This recommendation system can be used as a potential sta dispatch model for OPO to further improve the consent from family for organ donation and save more lives by customizing the sta deployment procedure based on the characteristics of donor referral

Learning machines for health and beyond

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they are good at identifying patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real life problems often stops at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as soon as patient demographic changes. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive models post-publication is crucial to guarantee their safe and effective long term use. As machine learning techniques are effectively trained to look for patterns in available datasets, the performance of a model for complex real life problems will not peak and remain fixed at the point of publication or even point of deployment. Rather, data changes over time, and they also changed when models are transported to new places to be used by new demography.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Clinical Screening Prediction in the Portuguese National Health Service: Data Analysis, Machine Learning Models, Explainability and Meta-Evaluation

This paper presents an analysis of the calls made to the Portuguese National Health Contact Center (SNS24) during a three years period. The final goal was to develop a system to help nurse attendants select the appropriate clinical pathway (from 59 options) for each call. It examines several aspects of the calls distribution like age and gender of the user, date and time of the call and final referral, among others and presents comparative results for alternative classification models (SVM and CNN) and different data samples (three months, one and two years data models). For the task of selecting the appropriate pathway, the models, learned on the basis of the available data, achieved F1 values that range between 0.642 (3 months CNN model) and 0.783 (2 years CNN model), with SVM having a more stable performance (between 0.743 and 0.768 for the corresponding data samples). These results are discussed regarding error analysis and possibilities for explaining the system decisions. A final meta evaluation, based on a clinical expert overview, compares the different choices: the nurse attendants (reference ground truth), the expert and the automatic decisions (2 models), revealing a higher agreement between the ML models, followed by their agreement with the clinical expert, and minor agreement with the reference.This research work was funded by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P, within the project SNS24.Scout.IA—Aplicação de Metodologias de Inteligência Artificial e Processamento de Linguagem Natural no Serviço de Triagem, Aconselhamento e Encaminhamento do SNS24 (ref. DSAIPA/AI/0040/2019)

Clinical validation of a spectroscopic liquid biopsy for earlier detection of brain cancer

BackgroundDiagnostic delays impact the quality of life and survival of patients with brain tumors. Earlier and expeditious diagnoses in these patients are crucial to reduce the morbidities and mortalities associated with brain tumors. A simple, rapid blood test that can be administered easily in a primary care setting to efficiently identify symptomatic patients who are most likely to have a brain tumor would enable quicker referral to brain imaging for those who need it most.MethodsBlood serum samples from 603 patients were prospectively collected and analyzed. Patients either had non-specific symptoms that could be indicative of a brain tumor on presentation to the Emergency Department, or a new brain tumor diagnosis and referral to the neurosurgical unit, NHS Lothian, Scotland. Patient blood serum samples were analyzed using the Dxcover® Brain Cancer liquid biopsy. This technology utilizes infrared spectroscopy combined with a diagnostic algorithm to predict the presence of intracranial disease.ResultsOur liquid biopsy approach reported an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8. The sensitivity-tuned model achieves a 96% sensitivity with 45% specificity (NPV 99.3%) and identified 100% of glioblastoma multiforme patients. When tuned for a higher specificity, the model yields a sensitivity of 47% with 90% specificity (PPV 28.4%).ConclusionsThis simple, non-invasive blood test facilitates the triage and radiographic diagnosis of brain tumor patients while providing reassurance to healthy patients. Minimizing time to diagnosis would facilitate the identification of brain tumor patients at an earlier stage, enabling more effective, less morbid surgical and adjuvant care

Information Systems and Healthcare XXXIV: Clinical Knowledge Management Systems—Literature Review and Research Issues for Information Systems

Knowledge Management (KM) has emerged as a possible solution to many of the challenges facing U.S. and international healthcare systems. These challenges include concerns regarding the safety and quality of patient care, critical inefficiency, disparate technologies and information standards, rapidly rising costs and clinical information overload. In this paper, we focus on clinical knowledge management systems (CKMS) research. The objectives of the paper are to evaluate the current state of knowledge management systems diffusion in the clinical setting, assess the present status and focus of CKMS research efforts, and identify research gaps and opportunities for future work across the medical informatics and information systems disciplines. The study analyzes the literature along two dimensions: (1) the knowledge management processes of creation, capture, transfer, and application, and (2) the clinical processes of diagnosis, treatment, monitoring and prognosis. The study reveals that the vast majority of CKMS research has been conducted by the medical and health informatics communities. Information systems (IS) researchers have played a limited role in past CKMS research. Overall, the results indicate that there is considerable potential for IS researchers to contribute their expertise to the improvement of clinical process through technology-based KM approaches

Secure Decentralized Decisions in Consolidated Hospital Systems: Intelligent Agents and Blockchain

Shared decision making has become a very important solution in order to build a consolidated healthcare system. While there is some research in the healthcare literature discussing the advantages and disadvantages of the shared decision making, its efficiency has not been addressed quantitatively. In this thesis, we propose a universal decentralized decision-making architecture utilizing the Blockchain Technology and Machine Learning (predictive and prescriptive analytics) to address the compelling need for coordination among healthcare providers and patients in an efficient and integrated manner. The healthcare process considered is the assignment of a patient to the best physician and hospital in consolidated hospital systems. After designing Decentralized Patients Assignment System (DPAS), the model is simulated using Agent-based models (ABM). The ABM consist of 4 agents including patient, physician, hospital and miner (assignment algorithms) which interact inside a decentralized integrated system. The proposed mechanism introduces the importance of interoperability between healthcare agents in the decision making process created by Blockchain Technology. To illustrate the model efficiency, two scenarios have been simulated and the results are compared. The results demonstrate the proposed model efficiency in terms of the assignment rate, computational time, and cost

Recent Developments in Smart Healthcare

Medicine is undergoing a sector-wide transformation thanks to the advances in computing and networking technologies. Healthcare is changing from reactive and hospital-centered to preventive and personalized, from disease focused to well-being centered. In essence, the healthcare systems, as well as fundamental medicine research, are becoming smarter. We anticipate significant improvements in areas ranging from molecular genomics and proteomics to decision support for healthcare professionals through big data analytics, to support behavior changes through technology-enabled self-management, and social and motivational support. Furthermore, with smart technologies, healthcare delivery could also be made more efficient, higher quality, and lower cost. In this special issue, we received a total 45 submissions and accepted 19 outstanding papers that roughly span across several interesting topics on smart healthcare, including public health, health information technology (Health IT), and smart medicine

Clinical Decision Support Systems for Palliative Care Referral: Design and Evaluation of Frailty and Mortality Predictive Models

[ES] Los Cuidados Paliativos (PC) son cuidados médicos especializados cuyo objetivo esmejorar la calidad de vida de los pacientes con enfermedades graves. Históricamente,se han aplicado a los pacientes en fase terminal, especialmente a los que tienen undiagnóstico oncológico. Sin embargo, los resultados de las investigaciones actualessugieren que la PC afecta positivamente a la calidad de vida de los pacientes condiferentes enfermedades. La tendencia actual sobre la PC es incluir a pacientes nooncológicos con afecciones como la EPOC, la insuficiencia de funciones orgánicas ola demencia. Sin embargo, la identificación de los pacientes con esas necesidades escompleja, por lo que se requieren herramientas alternativas basadas en datos clínicos. La creciente demanda de PC puede beneficiarse de una herramienta de cribadopara identificar a los pacientes con necesidades de PC durante el ingreso hospitalario.Se han propuesto varias herramientas, como la Pregunta Sorpresa (SQ) o la creaciónde diferentes índices y puntuaciones, con distintos grados de éxito. Recientemente,el uso de algoritmos de inteligencia artificial, en concreto de Machine Learning (ML), ha surgido como una solución potencial dada su capacidad de aprendizaje a partirde las Historias Clínicas Electrónicas (EHR) y con la expectativa de proporcionarpredicciones precisas para el ingreso en programas de PC. Esta tesis se centra en la creación de herramientas digitales basadas en ML para la identificación de pacientes con necesidades de cuidados paliativos en el momento del ingreso hospitalario. Hemos utilizado la mortalidad y la fragilidad como los dos criterios clínicos para la toma de decisiones, siendo la corta supervivencia y el aumento de la fragilidad, nuestros objetivos para hacer predicciones. También nos hemos centrado en la implementación de estas herramientas en entornos clínicos y en el estudio de su usabilidad y aceptación en los flujos de trabajo clínicos. Para lograr estos objetivos, en primer lugar, estudiamos y comparamos algoritmos de ML para la supervivencia a un año en pacientes adultos durante el ingreso hospitalario. Para ello, definimos una variable binaria a predecir, equivalente a la SQ y definimos el conjunto de variables predictivas basadas en la literatura. Comparamos modelos basados en Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) y Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), atendiendo a su rendimiento, especialmente al Área bajo la curva ROC (AUC ROC). Además, obtuvimos información sobre la importancia de las variables para los modelos basados en árboles utilizando el criterio GINI. En segundo lugar, estudiamos la medición de la fragilidad de la calidad de vida(QoL) en los candidatos a la intervención en PC. Para este segundo estudio, redujimosla franja de edad de la población a pacientes ancianos (≥ 65 años) como grupo objetivo. A continuación, creamos tres modelos diferentes: 1) la adaptación del modelo demortalidad a un año para pacientes ancianos, 2) un modelo de regresión para estimarel número de días desde el ingreso hasta la muerte para complementar los resultadosdel primer modelo, y finalmente, 3) un modelo predictivo del estado de fragilidad aun año. Estos modelos se compartieron con la comunidad académica a través de unaaplicación web b que permite la entrada de datos y muestra la predicción de los tresmodelos y unos gráficos con la importancia de las variables. En tercer lugar, propusimos una versión del modelo de mortalidad a un año enforma de calculadora online. Esta versión se diseñó para maximizar el acceso de losprofesionales minimizando los requisitos de datos y haciendo que el software respondiera a las plataformas tecnológicas actuales. Así pues, se eliminaron las variablesadministrativas específicas de la fuente de datos y se trabajó en un proceso para minimizar las variables de entrada requeridas, manteniendo al mismo tiempo un ROCAUC elevado del modelo. Como resultado, e[CA] Les Cures Pal·liatives (PC) són cures mèdiques especialitzades l'objectiu de les qualsés millorar la qualitat de vida dels pacients amb malalties greus. Històricament, s'hanaplicat als pacients en fase terminal, especialment als quals tenen un diagnòstic oncològic. No obstant això, els resultats de les investigacions actuals suggereixen que lesPC afecten positivament a la qualitat de vida dels pacients amb diferents malalties. Latendència actual sobre les PC és incloure a pacients no oncològics amb afeccions comla malaltia pulmonar obstructiva crònica, la insuficiència de funcions orgàniques o lademència. No obstant això, la identificació dels pacients amb aqueixes necessitats éscomplexa, per la qual cosa es requereixen eines alternatives basades en dades clíniques. La creixent demanda de PC pot beneficiar-se d'una eina de garbellat per a identificar als pacients amb necessitats de PC durant l'ingrés hospitalari. S'han proposatdiverses eines, com la Pregunta Sorpresa (SQ) o la creació de diferents índexs i puntuacions, amb diferents graus d'èxit. Recentment, l'ús d'algorismes d'intel·ligènciaartificial, en concret de Machine Learning (ML), ha sorgit com una potencial soluciódonada la seua capacitat d'aprenentatge a partir de les Històries Clíniques Electròniques (EHR) i amb l'expectativa de proporcionar prediccions precises per a l'ingrés enprogrames de PC. Aquesta tesi se centra en la creació d'eines digitals basades en MLper a la identificació de pacients amb necessitats de cures pal·liatives durant l'ingréshospitalari. Hem utilitzat mortalitat i fragilitat com els dos criteris clínics per a lapresa de decisions, sent la curta supervivència i la major fragilitat els nostres objectiusa predir. Després, ens hem centrat en la seua implementació en entorns clínics i hemestudiat la seua usabilitat i acceptació en els fluxos de treball clínics.Aquesta tesi se centra en la creació d'eines digitals basades en ML per a la identificació de pacients amb necessitats de cures pal·liatives en el moment de l'ingrés hospitalari. Hem utilitzat la mortalitat i la fragilitat com els dos criteris clínics per ala presa de decisions, sent la curta supervivència i l'augment de la fragilitat, els nostresobjectius per a fer prediccions. També ens hem centrat en la implementació d'aquesteseines en entorns clínics i en l'estudi de la seua usabilitat i acceptació en els fluxos detreball clínics. Per a aconseguir aquests objectius, en primer lloc, estudiem i comparem algorismesde ML per a la supervivència a un any en pacients adults durant l'ingrés hospitalari.Per a això, definim una variable binària a predir, equivalent a la SQ i definim el conjuntde variables predictives basades en la literatura. Comparem models basats en Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) i Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), atenent el seu rendiment,especialment a l'Àrea sota la corba ROC (AUC ROC). A més, vam obtindre informaciósobre la importància de les variables per als models basats en arbres utilitzant el criteri GINI. En segon lloc, estudiem el mesurament de la fragilitat de la qualitat de vida (QoL)en els candidats a la intervenció en PC. Per a aquest segon estudi, vam reduir lafranja d'edat de la població a pacients ancians (≥ 65 anys) com a grup objectiu. Acontinuació, creem tres models diferents: 1) l'adaptació del model de mortalitat a unany per a pacients ancians, 2) un model de regressió per a estimar el nombre de dies desde l'ingrés fins a la mort per a complementar els resultats del primer model, i finalment,3) un model predictiu de l'estat de fragilitat a un any. Aquests models es van compartiramb la comunitat acadèmica a través d'una aplicació web c que permet l'entrada dedades i mostra la predicció dels tres models i uns gràfics amb la importància de lesvariables. En tercer lloc, vam proposar una versió del model de mortalitat a un any en formade calculadora en línia. Aquesta versió es va di[EN] Palliative Care (PC) is specialized medical care that aims to improve patients' quality of life with serious illnesses. Historically, it has been applied to terminally ill patients, especially those with oncologic diagnoses. However, current research results suggest that PC positively affects the quality of life of patients with different conditions. The current trend on PC is to include non-oncological patients with conditions such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), organ function failure or dementia. However, the identification of patients with those needs is complex, and therefore alternative tools based on clinical data are required. The growing demand for PC may benefit from a screening tool to identify patients with PC needs during hospital admission. Several tools, such as the Surprise Question (SQ) or the creation of different indexes and scores, have been proposed with varying degrees of success. Recently, the use of artificial intelligence algorithms, specifically Machine Learning (ML), has arisen as a potential solution given their capacity to learn from the Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and with the expectation to provide accurate predictions for admission to PC programs. This thesis focuses on creating ML-based digital tools for identifying patients with palliative care needs at hospital admission. We have used mortality and frailty as the two clinical criteria for decision-making, being short survival and increased frailty, as our targets to make predictions. We also have focused on implementing these tools in clinical settings and studying their usability and acceptance in clinical workflows. To accomplish these objectives, first, we studied and compared ML algorithms for one-year survival in adult patients during hospital admission. To do so, we defined a binary variable to predict, equivalent to the SQ and defined the set of predictive variables based on literature. We compared models based on Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), attending to their performance, especially to the Area under the ROC curve (AUC ROC). Additionally, we obtained information on the importance of variables for tree-based models using the GINI criterion. Second, we studied frailty measurement of Quality of Life (QoL) in candidates for PC intervention. For this second study, we narrowed the age of the population to elderly patients (≥ 65 years) as the target group. Then we created three different models: 1) for the adaptation of the one-year mortality model for elderly patients, 2) a regression model to estimate the number of days from admission to death to complement the results of the first model, and finally, 3) a predictive model for frailty status at one year. These models were shared with the academic community through a web application a that allows data input and shows the prediction from the three models and some graphs with the importance of the variables. Third, we proposed a version of the 1-year mortality model in the form of an online calculator. This version was designed to maximize access from professionals by minimizing data requirements and making the software responsive to the current technological platforms. So we eliminated the administrative variables specific to the dataset source and worked on a process to minimize the required input variables while maintaining high the model's AUC ROC. As a result, this model retained most of the predictive power and required only seven bed-side inputs. Finally, we evaluated the Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) web tool on PC with an actual set of users. This evaluation comprised three domains: evaluation of participant's predictions against the ML baseline, the usability of the graphical interface, and user experience measurement. A first evaluation was performed, followed by a period of implementation of improvements and corrections to the plaBlanes Selva, V. (2022). Clinical Decision Support Systems for Palliative Care Referral: Design and Evaluation of Frailty and Mortality Predictive Models [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/19099