Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses

Abstract In case of exceptional events of natural or anthropogenic type, the elements at risk (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) are often hit by sequences of 'cascading events', function of time and space, caused by the triggering event (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, fire, electric failure, etc.). Generally, sequences of events can involve the same element at risk, and the combined effects of cascading phenomena can strongly amplify the impact caused by single events in terms of extension of the affected area and damage level. The final impact on the territory can be significant and require to be carefully assessed in terms of emergency planning and management. This paper discusses from a theoretical point of view the modelling needs and the main issues to be taken into account in the development of simulation tools aiming to include cascading effects analyses to effectively support decision-makers in their preparedness and disaster mitigation strategies in the framework of emergency planning at local, national and international level. The model aims at developing cascading effects scenarios at different level of detail, depending on the availability of inventory/exposure data for the different categories of elements at risk and hazard/impact models for the various hazard sources. It has been developed within EU-FP7 SNOWBALL project (Lower the impact of aggravating factors in crisis situations thanks to adaptive foresight and decision-support tools, 2015–2017)

Comparative analysis of spring flood risk reduction measures in Alaska, United States and the Sakha Republic, Russia

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017River ice thaw and breakup are an annual springtime phenomena in the North. Depending on regional weather patterns and river morphology, breakups can result in catastrophic floods in exposed and vulnerable communities. Breakup flood risk is especially high in rural and remote northern communities, where flood relief and recovery are complicated by unique geographical and climatological features, and limited physical and communication infrastructure. Proactive spring flood management would significantly minimize the adverse impacts of spring floods. Proactive flood management entails flood risk reduction through advances in ice jam and flood prevention, forecasting and mitigation, and community preparedness. With the goal to identify best practices in spring flood risk reduction, I conducted a comparative case study between two flood-prone communities, Galena in Alaska, United States and Edeytsy in the Sakha Republic, Russia. Within a week from each other, Galena and Edeytsy sustained major floods in May 2013. Methods included focus groups with the representatives from flood managing agencies, surveys of families impacted by the 2013 floods, observations on site, and archival review. Comparative parameters of the study included natural and human causes of spring floods, effectiveness of spring flood mitigation and preparedness strategies, and the role of interagency communication and cooperation in flood risk reduction. The analysis revealed that spring flood risk in Galena and Edeytsy results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes and human actions that generate conditions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Therefore, flood risk in Galena and Edeytsy can be reduced by managing conditions of ice-jam floods, and decreasing exposure and vulnerability of the at-risk populations. Implementing the Pressure and Release model to analyze the vulnerability progression of Edeytsy and Galena points to common root causes at the two research sites, including colonial heritage, unequal distribution of resources and power, top-down governance, and limited inclusion of local communities in the decision-making process. To construct an appropriate flood risk reduction framework it is important to establish a dialogue among the diverse stakeholders on potential solutions, arriving at a range of top-down and bottom-up initiatives and in conjunction selecting the appropriate strategies. Both communities have progressed in terms of greater awareness of the hazard, reduction in vulnerabilities, and a shift to more reliance on shelter-in-place. However, in neither community have needed improvements in levee protection been completed. Dialogue between outside authorities and the community begins earlier and is more intensive for Edeytsy, perhaps accounting for Edeytsy's more favorable rating of risk management and response than Galena's

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster

Exploring urban resilience to disasters : the role of planning in the long-term community rebuilding of Kalamata after the 1986 earthquake

Cette recherche explore la relation entre la planification, la reconstruction et la résilience, à travers l'analyse approfondie de la reconstruction à long terme d'une ville frappée par une catastrophe. Le but de cette recherche est de mieux comprendre le concept de résilience pour l'opérationnaliser. Premièrement, apporter une nouvelle perspective à la discussion sur la résilience en tant que concept théorique. Deuxièmement, contribuer à une nouvelle méthode d'évaluation pour explorer cette problématique, cette recherche utilise comme étude de cas une ville de taille moyenne qui a été frappée par une désastre. La ville de Kalamata, en Grèce, a été frappée par un tremblement de terre en Septembre 1986, ce qui l'a rendue dévastée. La trajectoire de développement de la ville à long terme offre une opportunité idéale pour explorer telles caractéristiques. Cette recherche examine les interventions et les pratiques de planification qui ont influencé les niveaux d'équilibre de la résilience de la ville au cours des périodes de pré-catastrophe et après la catastrophe et met l'accent sur l'interprétation des résultats dans le processus de récupération à long terme. Il se questionne si et comment les choix de planification influencent le rétablissement de la ville ainsi que sa résilience. La concentration sur la récupération à long terme est cruciale car elle révèle le succès ou l'échec du processus de récupération et elle vient compléter un vide dans la littérature étant donné que les études sont principalement concentrées sur les résultats de récupération à court terme. La résilience est un outil théorique largement répandu et en même temps largement contesté qui a été adopté par plusieurs domaines de recherche et utilisé différemment dans la plupart d'entre eux. Dans le domaine de la planification, la résilience est actuellement largement adoptée et est aujourd'hui un processus et un résultat très attendus dans la recherche et la pratique. La récupération à long terme et l'atténuation des risques sont les phases les moins explorées de la reconstruction post-catastrophe. Bien que beaucoup de recherches soient orientées vers les stratégies de réponse et de reconstruction, on accordera peu d'attention à la récupération à long terme et aux phases d'atténuation des dangers. L'innovation de cette recherche est qu'elle offre une nouvelle perspective en examinant comment la reconstruction a eu des impacts sur les lieux sur le long terme. Comment est-ce qu'ils ont amélioré leur résilience? Au lendemain d'un événement catastrophique, toutes les dynamiques sont mobilisées vers un soulagement et une reconstruction immédiats. Ces dynamiques restent malheureusement motivées pour un court terme après l'événement catastrophique. Bientôt la vie trouve un nouveau rythme et les signes de la catastrophe sont absorbés dans les besoins et les actes de la vie quotidienne. Cependant, les impacts des décisions prises après la catastrophe ne sont révélés qu'à long terme, pendant la phase de récupération à long terme. Pour que la reconstruction après sinistre soit couronnée de succès, une reconstruction résiliente à long terme est impérative. Au sein de cette recherche, la conceptualisation de la résilience est à la fois un défi et une nécessité afin de faire un premier pas vers la découverte de ce qui constitue une reconstruction résiliente à long terme post-catastrophe. Avec cette perspective à long terme, cette recherche explore la contribution des pratiques de planification à l'amélioration de l'équilibre de résilience d'une zone urbaine. Afin d'explorer à long terme la relation entre la planification et la résilience d'une communauté urbaine, un modèle d'évaluation de la résilience dans ce cadre spécifique est proposé. L'objectif est de donner une idée de la façon dont la planification peut affecter la résilience. Finalement, l’importance des pratiques de l'atténuation des risques et d’adaptation dans la planification est soulignée.This research explores the relationship between planning, reconstruction and resilience, through the in-depth analysis of the long-term recovery of a city hit by disaster. The purpose of this research is to further understand the concept of resilience in order to operationalize it. Firstly, to contribute a new perspective to resilience research as a theoretical concept. Secondly, to contribute to the operationalization of resilience with a new assessment method. To explore this problematic this research uses as case study a medium sized city that has been hit by a disaster in the past. The city of Kalamata, Greece was hit by an earthquake in September 1986, which left it devastated. The development trajectory of the city that is in an ongoing long-term recovery phase offers an ideal opportunity to explore such characteristics. This research examines the planning interventions and practices that have influenced the city’s resilience equilibrium levels during the pre-disaster and post-disaster periods and it focuses on the interpretation of the findings in the long-term recovery process. It questions if and how planning choices influence the recovery of the city as well as its resilience. The concentration on the long-term recovery is crucial as it reveals the success or fail of the recovery process and it comes to fill a void in literature given that studies are mostly concentrated on short-term recovery results. Resilience is already a widely popular and at the same time extensively contested theoretical concept that has been adopted by several fields of research and used differently in most of them. Within the field of planning resilience is currently being extensively adapted and is today a much-anticipated process and outcome of planning research and practice. Long-term recovery and hazard mitigation are the least explored phases of post disaster reconstruction. Although much research is orientated towards response and reconstruction strategies, little attention is given towards the long-term recovery and the hazard mitigation phases. The innovation of this research is that it offers a new perspective by examining how reconstruction has impacted places over the long term. How they have improved their resilience? In the aftermath of a catastrophic event, all dynamics are immediately mobilized towards immediate relief and reconstruction. These dynamics unfortunately remain motivated for only a short term after the catastrophic event. Soon life finds a new rhythm and the signs of the catastrophe are absorbed into the needs and deeds of everyday life. However, the impacts of the decisions taken shortly after the disaster are only revealed on the long term, during the long-term recovery phase. For disaster recovery to be successful, a long term resilient rebuilding vision is imperative. Within this research, the conceptualization of resilience is both a challenge and a necessity to take a first step towards the outlining of what constitutes a long-term resilient post-disaster community rebuilding. With this long-term perspective, this research explores the contribution of planning practices towards the amelioration of the resilience equilibrium of an urban area. To analyze the relationship between planning and resilience of an urban community on the long term, a model for assessing resilience within this specific framework is created. The objective is to give an insight in the ways planning can affect resilience. In this way, the importance of hazard mitigation and adaptation in the field of planning is highlighted

Understanding the implementation challenges of urban resilience policies : investigating the influence of urban geological risk in Thessaloniki, Greece

Urban Resilience has recently emerged as a systematic approach to urban sustainability. The malleable definition of resilience has rendered its operationalisation an intriguing task for contemporary cities trying to address their organisational problems and confront uncertainty in a holistic manner. In this article we investigate the implementation challenges emerging for Resilient Strategies by the inattention paid to urban geological risk. We conceptualise urban geological risk as the combination of urban geohazards, geological vulnerability and exposure of the built environment and focus on the case study of Thessaloniki, Greece, a city that joined the 100 Resilient Cities initiative in 2014 and published its “Resilience Strategy 2030” (RS) in 2017. After a review of the RS, historical records of natural hazard events and with evidence gathered through interviews with city officials, we emphasize on earthquakes and surface flooding as the most relevant geohazards for Thessaloniki to tackle in its journey towards urban resilience. First, we examine geological vulnerability to earthquakes in conjunction with exposure of the built environment, as an outcome of ageing building stock, high building densities and the urban configuration, in Acheiropoietos neighbourhood, within the historic centre of the city. Then, we explore geological risk to surface flooding in Perea, in Thermaikos Municipality, with a particular focus on flash floods, by demonstrating how limited consideration of local geomorphology as well as semi-regulated urban expansion and its limited connection with emergency planning increase exposure of the built environment to surface flooding. Finally, we come up with the major implementation challenges Thessaloniki’s RS faces with regard to urban geohazards

Investigating the status of disaster management within a world-wide context: a case study analysis

Disasters can be described as feats of spontaneous occurrences, in that they can happen at any minute at any time. There are two classifications of disasters, which are, natural disasters that cannot be predicted and continuously occur throughout society. While the other classification of disaster is that of man-made disasters, where disasters are caused not by natural phenomena, but by man's or society's actions, involuntary or voluntary, sudden or slow, with grave consequences to the population and the environment (Hays, 2008). Both these types of disasters can be controlled to a certain extent through appropriate disaster management plans and if managed efficiently have the potential to reduce the likelihood of overwhelming loss of lives and property. The Disaster Management cycle is split into four elements of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness which contribute to emergency protocols of a nation when disaster strikes. Therefore, nations should incorporate them in their development plans and ensure efficient follow-up measures at community, national and international levels. This paper investigates worldwide disasters in order to examine how these disasters were managed and to identify the lessons learned. It provides an analysis of five worldwide case studies of recent disasters (Tsunami in Sri Lanka, Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Earthquake in Pakistan, Summer floods in the UK and Flooding of the West-Link in Northern Ireland) mapping those to the four staged disaster management cycle. The paper analyses in detail the strategies adopted at each stage of the cycle comparing strengths and weaknesses of each case. It concludes that there had been satisfactory progress in both response and recovery phases but more attention is needed for disaster mitigation and preparedness

Investigating the status of disaster management within a world-wide context: a case study analysis

Disasters can be described as feats of spontaneous occurrences, in that they can happen at any minute at any time. There are two classifications of disasters, which are, natural disasters that cannot be predicted and continuously occur throughout society. While the other classification of disaster is that of man-made disasters, where disasters are caused not by natural phenomena, but by man's or society's actions, involuntary or voluntary, sudden or slow, with grave consequences to the population and the environment (Hays, 2008). Both these types of disasters can be controlled to a certain extent through appropriate disaster management plans and if managed efficiently have the potential to reduce the likelihood of overwhelming loss of lives and property. The Disaster Management cycle is split into four elements of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness which contribute to emergency protocols of a nation when disaster strikes. Therefore, nations should incorporate them in their development plans and ensure efficient follow-up measures at community, national and international levels. This paper investigates worldwide disasters in order to examine how these disasters were managed and to identify the lessons learned. It provides an analysis of five worldwide case studies of recent disasters (Tsunami in Sri Lanka, Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Earthquake in Pakistan, Summer floods in the UK and Flooding of the West-Link in Northern Ireland) mapping those to the four staged disaster management cycle. The paper analyses in detail the strategies adopted at each stage of the cycle comparing strengths and weaknesses of each case. It concludes that there had been satisfactory progress in both response and recovery phases but more attention is needed for disaster mitigation and preparedness

Augmented reality for pedestrian evacuation research: Promises and limitations

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Parent Communication and Earthquake Safety

The action research study investigated increasing communication on earthquake safety in order to alleviate parental concern. The investigation took place at a local private Montessori school. The participants were parents from the school. The data was collected through pre and post surveys, observations, and journaling. The results showed that increasing communication between the school and the parent community on this subject matter did alleviate parental concern. The parents felt more reassured knowing the details on earthquake safety plan. However, the challenge is keeping the new parents that come to the school informed about the school’s earthquake safety plan. Overall, keeping effective communication on this subject with the parent community is the key