64,932 research outputs found
Managing Dynamic Enterprise and Urgent Workloads on Clouds Using Layered Queuing and Historical Performance Models
The automatic allocation of enterprise workload to resources can be enhanced by being able to make what-if response time predictions whilst different allocations are being considered. We experimentally investigate an historical and a layered queuing performance model and show how they can provide a good level of support for a dynamic-urgent cloud environment. Using this we define, implement and experimentally investigate the effectiveness of a prediction-based cloud workload and resource management algorithm. Based on these experimental analyses we: i.) comparatively evaluate the layered queuing and historical techniques; ii.) evaluate the effectiveness of the management algorithm in different operating scenarios; and iii.) provide guidance on using prediction-based workload and resource management
Using Personal Environmental Comfort Systems to Mitigate the Impact of Occupancy Prediction Errors on HVAC Performance
Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) consumes a significant
fraction of energy in commercial buildings. Hence, the use of optimization
techniques to reduce HVAC energy consumption has been widely studied. Model
predictive control (MPC) is one state of the art optimization technique for
HVAC control which converts the control problem to a sequence of optimization
problems, each over a finite time horizon. In a typical MPC, future system
state is estimated from a model using predictions of model inputs, such as
building occupancy and outside air temperature. Consequently, as prediction
accuracy deteriorates, MPC performance--in terms of occupant comfort and
building energy use--degrades. In this work, we use a custom-built building
thermal simulator to systematically investigate the impact of occupancy
prediction errors on occupant comfort and energy consumption. Our analysis
shows that in our test building, as occupancy prediction error increases from
5\% to 20\% the performance of an MPC-based HVAC controller becomes worse than
that of even a simple static schedule. However, when combined with a personal
environmental control (PEC) system, HVAC controllers are considerably more
robust to prediction errors. Thus, we quantify the effectiveness of PECs in
mitigating the impact of forecast errors on MPC control for HVAC systems.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figure
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Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning
Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty
Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning and social network analysis in big data platform
Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for
large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies,
especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to
predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase
customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The
main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which
assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to
churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning techniques on big
data platform and builds a new way of features' engineering and selection. In
order to measure the performance of the model, the Area Under Curve (AUC)
standard measure is adopted, and the AUC value obtained is 93.3%. Another main
contribution is to use customer social network in the prediction model by
extracting Social Network Analysis (SNA) features. The use of SNA enhanced the
performance of the model from 84 to 93.3% against AUC standard. The model was
prepared and tested through Spark environment by working on a large dataset
created by transforming big raw data provided by SyriaTel telecom company. The
dataset contained all customers' information over 9 months, and was used to
train, test, and evaluate the system at SyriaTel. The model experimented four
algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Machine Tree "GBM"
and Extreme Gradient Boosting "XGBOOST". However, the best results were
obtained by applying XGBOOST algorithm. This algorithm was used for
classification in this churn predictive model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. PDF https://rdcu.be/budK
Control of heat pumps with CO2 emission intensity forecasts
An optimized heat pump control for building heating was developed for
minimizing CO2 emissions from related electrical power generation. The control
is using weather and CO2 emission forecasts as input to a Model Predictive
Control (MPC) - a multivariate control algorithm using a dynamic process model,
constraints and a cost function to be minimized. In a simulation study the
control was applied using weather and power grid conditions during a full year
period in 2017-2018 for the power bidding zone DK2 (East, Denmark). Two
scenarios were studied; one with a family house and one with an office
building. The buildings were dimensioned on the basis of standards and building
codes. The main results are measured as the CO2 emission savings relative to a
classical thermostatic control. Note that this only measures the gain achieved
using the MPC control, i.e. the energy flexibility, not the absolute savings.
The results show that around 16% savings could have been achieved during the
period in well insulated new buildings with floor heating.
Further, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of
various building properties, e.g. level of insulation and thermal capacity.
Danish building codes from 1977 and forward was used as benchmarks for
insulation levels. It was shown that both insulation and thermal mass influence
the achievable flexibility savings, especially for floor heating. Buildings
that comply with codes later than 1979 could provide flexibility emission
savings of around 10%, while buildings that comply with earlier codes provided
savings in the range of 0-5% depending on the heating system and thermal mass.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Energie
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