Bounding inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains : a new approach based on lumping and imprecise Markov chains

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Bounding the coarse graining error in hidden Markov dynamics

Lumping a Markov process introduces a coarser level of description that is useful in many contexts and applications. The dynamics on the coarse grained states is often approximated by its Markovian component. In this letter we derive finite-time bounds on the error in this approximation. These results hold for non-reversible dynamics and for probabilistic mappings between microscopic and coarse grained states

Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Time Markov Chains by Combining Lumping with Imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences - here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations - becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed - smaller - state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.Comment: 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018

Computing inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains by combining lumping with imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences—here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations—becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Optimal Kullback-Leibler Aggregation via Information Bottleneck

In this paper, we present a method for reducing a regular, discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to another DTMC with a given, typically much smaller number of states. The cost of reduction is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence rate between a projection of the original process through a partition function and a DTMC on the correspondingly partitioned state space. Finding the reduced model with minimal cost is computationally expensive, as it requires an exhaustive search among all state space partitions, and an exact evaluation of the reduction cost for each candidate partition. Our approach deals with the latter problem by minimizing an upper bound on the reduction cost instead of minimizing the exact cost; The proposed upper bound is easy to compute and it is tight if the original chain is lumpable with respect to the partition. Then, we express the problem in the form of information bottleneck optimization, and propose using the agglomerative information bottleneck algorithm for searching a sub-optimal partition greedily, rather than exhaustively. The theory is illustrated with examples and one application scenario in the context of modeling bio-molecular interactions.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system