Calibration Probe Uncertainty and Validation for the Hypersonic Material Environmental Test System

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the stagnation-point calibration probe surface predictions for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. A second-order stochastic expansion was constructed over 47 uncertain parameters to evaluate the sensitivities, identify the most significant uncertain variables, and quantify the uncertainty in the stagnation-point heat flux and pressure predictions of the calibration probe for a low- and high-enthalpy test condition. A sensitivity analysis showed that measurement bias uncertainty is the most significant contributor to the stagnation-point pressure and heat flux variance for the low-enthalpy condition. For the high-enthalpy condition, a paradigm shift in sensitivities revealed the computational fluid dynamics model input uncertainty as the main contributor. A comparison between the prediction and measurement of the stagnation-point conditions under uncertainty showed that there was evidence of statistical disagreement. A validation metric was proposed and applied to the prediction uncertainty to account for the statistical disagreement when compared to the possible stagnation-point heat flux and pressure measurements

Uncertainty Quantification of the Responses of Transient Electromagnetic Disturbance Coupling to Transmission Lines Based on Stochastic Models

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

Investigation of robust optimization and evidence theory with stochastic expansions for aerospace applications under mixed uncertainty

One of the primary objectives of this research is to develop a method to model and propagate mixed (aleatory and epistemic) uncertainty in aerospace simulations using DSTE. In order to avoid excessive computational cost associated with large scale applications and the evaluation of Dempster Shafer structures, stochastic expansions are implemented for efficient UQ. The mixed UQ with DSTE approach was demonstrated on an analytical example and high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of transonic flow over a RAE 2822 airfoil. Another objective is to devise a DSTE based performance assessment framework through the use of quantification of margins and uncertainties. Efficient uncertainty propagation in system design performance metrics and performance boundaries is achieved through the use of stochastic expansions. The technique is demonstrated on: (1) a model problem with non-linear analytical functions representing the outputs and performance boundaries of two coupled systems and (2) a multi-disciplinary analysis of a supersonic civil transport. Finally, the stochastic expansions are applied to aerodynamic shape optimization under uncertainty. A robust optimization algorithm is presented for computationally efficient airfoil design under mixed uncertainty using a multi-fidelity approach. This algorithm exploits stochastic expansions to create surrogate models utilized in the optimization process. To reduce the computational cost, output space mapping technique is implemented to replace the high-fidelity CFD model by a suitably corrected low-fidelity one. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated on the robust optimization of NACA 4-digit airfoils under mixed uncertainties in transonic flow. --Abstract, page iii

Unified polynomial expansion for interval and random response analysis of uncertain structure–acoustic system with arbitrary probability distribution

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. For structure–acousticsystem with uncertainties, the interval model, the random model and the hybrid uncertain model have been introduced. In the interval model and the random model, the uncertain parameters are described as either the random variable with well defined probability density function (PDF) or the interval variable without any probability information, whereas in the hybrid uncertain model both interval variable and random variable exist simultaneously. For response analysis of these three uncertain models of structure–acoustic problem involving arbitrary PDFs, a unified polynomial expansion method named as the Interval and Random Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos method (IRAPCM) is proposed. In IRAPCM, the response of the structure–acoustic system is approximated by APC expansion in a unified form. Particularly, only the weight function of polynomial basis is required to be changed to construct the APC expansion for the response of different uncertain models. Through the unified APC expansion, the uncertain properties of the response of three uncertain models can be efficiently obtained. As the APC expansion can provide a free choice of the polynomial basis, the optimal polynomial basis for the random variable with arbitrary PDFs can be obtained by using the proposed IRAPCM. The IRAPCM has been employed to solve a mathematical problem and a structure–acoustic problem, and the effectiveness of the unified IRAPCM for response analysis of three uncertain models is demonstrated by fully comparing it with the hybrid first-order perturbation method and several existing polynomial chaos methods

Control of chaos in nonlinear circuits and systems

Nonlinear circuits and systems, such as electronic circuits (Chapter 5), power converters (Chapter 6), human brains (Chapter 7), phase lock loops (Chapter 8), sigma delta modulators (Chapter 9), etc, are found almost everywhere. Understanding nonlinear behaviours as well as control of these circuits and systems are important for real practical engineering applications. Control theories for linear circuits and systems are well developed and almost complete. However, different nonlinear circuits and systems could exhibit very different behaviours. Hence, it is difficult to unify a general control theory for general nonlinear circuits and systems. Up to now, control theories for nonlinear circuits and systems are still very limited. The objective of this book is to review the state of the art chaos control methods for some common nonlinear circuits and systems, such as those listed in the above, and stimulate further research and development in chaos control for nonlinear circuits and systems. This book consists of three parts. The first part of the book consists of reviews on general chaos control methods. In particular, a time-delayed approach written by H. Huang and G. Feng is reviewed in Chapter 1. A master slave synchronization problem for chaotic Lur’e systems is considered. A delay independent and delay dependent synchronization criteria are derived based on the H performance. The design of the time delayed feedback controller can be accomplished by means of the feasibility of linear matrix inequalities. In Chapter 2, a fuzzy model based approach written by H.K. Lam and F.H.F. Leung is reviewed. The synchronization of chaotic systems subject to parameter uncertainties is considered. A chaotic system is first represented by the fuzzy model. A switching controller is then employed to synchronize the systems. The stability conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities are derived based on the Lyapunov stability theory. The tracking performance and parameter design of the controller are formulated as a generalized eigenvalue minimization problem which is solved numerically via some convex programming techniques. In Chapter 3, a sliding mode control approach written by Y. Feng and X. Yu is reviewed. Three kinds of sliding mode control methods, traditional sliding mode control, terminal sliding mode control and non-singular terminal sliding mode control, are employed for the control of a chaotic system to realize two different control objectives, namely to force the system states to converge to zero or to track desired trajectories. Observer based chaos synchronizations for chaotic systems with single nonlinearity and multi-nonlinearities are also presented. In Chapter 4, an optimal control approach written by C.Z. Wu, C.M. Liu, K.L. Teo and Q.X. Shao is reviewed. Systems with nonparametric regression with jump points are considered. The rough locations of all the possible jump points are identified using existing kernel methods. A smooth spline function is used to approximate each segment of the regression function. A time scaling transformation is derived so as to map the undecided jump points to fixed points. The approximation problem is formulated as an optimization problem and solved via existing optimization tools. The second part of the book consists of reviews on general chaos controls for continuous-time systems. In particular, chaos controls for Chua’s circuits written by L.A.B. Tôrres, L.A. Aguirre, R.M. Palhares and E.M.A.M. Mendes are discussed in Chapter 5. An inductorless Chua’s circuit realization is presented, as well as some practical issues, such as data analysis, mathematical modelling and dynamical characterization, are discussed. The tradeoff among the control objective, the control energy and the model complexity is derived. In Chapter 6, chaos controls for pulse width modulation current mode single phase H-bridge inverters written by B. Robert, M. Feki and H.H.C. Iu are discussed. A time delayed feedback controller is used in conjunction with the proportional controller in its simple form as well as in its extended form to stabilize the desired periodic orbit for larger values of the proportional controller gain. This method is very robust and easy to implement. In Chapter 7, chaos controls for epileptiform bursting in the brain written by M.W. Slutzky, P. Cvitanovic and D.J. Mogul are discussed. Chaos analysis and chaos control algorithms for manipulating the seizure like behaviour in a brain slice model are discussed. The techniques provide a nonlinear control pathway for terminating or potentially preventing epileptic seizures in the whole brain. The third part of the book consists of reviews on general chaos controls for discrete-time systems. In particular, chaos controls for phase lock loops written by A.M. Harb and B.A. Harb are discussed in Chapter 8. A nonlinear controller based on the theory of backstepping is designed so that the phase lock loops will not be out of lock. Also, the phase lock loops will not exhibit Hopf bifurcation and chaotic behaviours. In Chapter 9, chaos controls for sigma delta modulators written by B.W.K. Ling, C.Y.F. Ho and J.D. Reiss are discussed. A fuzzy impulsive control approach is employed for the control of the sigma delta modulators. The local stability criterion and the condition for the occurrence of limit cycle behaviours are derived. Based on the derived conditions, a fuzzy impulsive control law is formulated so that the occurrence of the limit cycle behaviours, the effect of the audio clicks and the distance between the state vectors and an invariant set are minimized supposing that the invariant set is nonempty. The state vectors can be bounded within any arbitrary nonempty region no matter what the input step size, the initial condition and the filter parameters are. The editors are much indebted to the editor of the World Scientific Series on Nonlinear Science, Prof. Leon Chua, and to Senior Editor Miss Lakshmi Narayan for their help and congenial processing of the edition

Probabilistic Robustness Analysis with Aerospace Applications

This thesis develops theoretical and computational methods for the robustness analysis of uncertain systems. The considered systems are linearized and depend rationally on random parameters with an associated probability distribution. The uncertainty is tackled by applying a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), a series expansion for random variables similar to the well-known Fourier series for periodic time signals. We consider the linear perturbations around a system's operating point, i.e., reference trajectory, both from a probabilistic and worst-case point of view. A chief contribution is the polynomial chaos series expansion of uncertain linear systems in linear fractional representation (LFR). This leads to significant computational benefits when analyzing the probabilistic perturbations around a system's reference trajectory. The series expansion of uncertain interconnections in LFR further delivers important theoretical insights. For instance, it is shown that the PCE of rational parameter-dependent linear systems in LFR is equivalent to applying Gaussian quadrature for numerical integration. We further approximate the worst-case performance of uncertain linear systems with respect to quadratic performance metrics. This is achieved by approximately solving the underlying parametric Riccati differential equation after applying a polynomial chaos series expansion. The utility of the proposed probabilistic robustness analysis is demonstrated on the example of an industry-sized autolanding system for an Airbus A330 aircraft. Mean and standard deviation of the stochastic perturbations are quantified efficiently by applying a PCE to a linearization of the system along the nominal approach trajectory. Random uncertainty in the aerodynamic coefficients and mass parameters are considered, as well as atmospheric turbulence and static wind shear. The approximate worst-case analysis is compared with Monte Carlo simulations of the complete nonlinear model. The methods proposed throughout the thesis rapidly provide analysis results in good agreement with the Monte Carlo benchmark, at reduced computational cost

Efficient Localization of Discontinuities in Complex Computational Simulations

Surrogate models for computational simulations are input-output approximations that allow computationally intensive analyses, such as uncertainty propagation and inference, to be performed efficiently. When a simulation output does not depend smoothly on its inputs, the error and convergence rate of many approximation methods deteriorate substantially. This paper details a method for efficiently localizing discontinuities in the input parameter domain, so that the model output can be approximated as a piecewise smooth function. The approach comprises an initialization phase, which uses polynomial annihilation to assign function values to different regions and thus seed an automated labeling procedure, followed by a refinement phase that adaptively updates a kernel support vector machine representation of the separating surface via active learning. The overall approach avoids structured grids and exploits any available simplicity in the geometry of the separating surface, thus reducing the number of model evaluations required to localize the discontinuity. The method is illustrated on examples of up to eleven dimensions, including algebraic models and ODE/PDE systems, and demonstrates improved scaling and efficiency over other discontinuity localization approaches

Systematic Study of Accuracy of Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulation using Uncertainty Quantification Techniques

The predictive accuracy of wall-modeled large eddy simulation is studied by systematic simulation campaigns of turbulent channel flow. The effect of wall model, grid resolution and anisotropy, numerical convective scheme and subgrid-scale modeling is investigated. All of these factors affect the resulting accuracy, and their action is to a large extent intertwined. The wall model is of the wall-stress type, and its sensitivity to location of velocity sampling, as well as law of the wall's parameters is assessed. For efficient exploration of the model parameter space (anisotropic grid resolution and wall model parameter values), generalized polynomial chaos expansions are used to construct metamodels for the responses which are taken to be measures of the predictive error in quantities of interest (QoIs). The QoIs include the mean wall shear stress and profiles of the mean velocity, the turbulent kinetic energy, and the Reynolds shear stress. DNS data is used as reference. Within the tested framework, a particular second-order accurate CFD code (OpenFOAM), the results provide ample support for grid and method parameters recommendations which are proposed in the present paper, and which provide good results for the QoIs. Notably, good results are obtained with a grid with isotropic (cubic) hexahedral cells, with $15\, 000$ cells per $\delta^3$, where $\delta$ is the channel half-height (or thickness of the turbulent boundary layer). The importance of providing enough numerical dissipation to obtain accurate QoIs is demonstrated. The main channel flow case investigated is ${\rm Re}_\tau=5200$, but extension to a wide range of ${\rm Re}$-numbers is considered. Use of other numerical methods and software would likely modify these recommendations, at least slightly, but the proposed framework is fully applicable to investigate this as well

Optimization Under Uncertainty Applied to Heat Sink Design

Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) is a powerful methodology used in design and optimization to produce robust, reliable designs. Such an optimization methodology, employed when the input quantities of interest are uncertain, yields output uncertainties that help the designer choose appropriate values for input parameters to produce safe designs. Apart from providing basic statistical information, such as mean and standard deviation in the output quantities, uncertainty-based optimization produces auxiliary information, such as local and global sensitivities. The designer may thus decide the input parameter(s) to which the output quantity of interest is most sensitive, and thereby design better experiments based on just the most sensitive input parameter(s). Another critical output of such a methodology is the solution to the inverse problem, i.e., finding the allowable uncertainty (range) in the input parameter(s), given an acceptable uncertainty (range) in the output quantities of interest. We apply optimization under uncertainty to the problem of heat transfer in fin heat sinks with uncertainties in geometry and operating conditions. The analysis methodology is implemented using DAKOTA, an open-source design and analysis kit. A response surface is first generated which captures the dependence of the quantity of interest on inputs. This response surface is then used to perform both deterministic and probabilistic optimization of the heat sink, and the results of the two approaches are compared

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the in-time aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance