Network Inference from Co-Occurrences

The recovery of network structure from experimental data is a basic and fundamental problem. Unfortunately, experimental data often do not directly reveal structure due to inherent limitations such as imprecision in timing or other observation mechanisms. We consider the problem of inferring network structure in the form of a directed graph from co-occurrence observations. Each observation arises from a transmission made over the network and indicates which vertices carry the transmission without explicitly conveying their order in the path. Without order information, there are an exponential number of feasible graphs which agree with the observed data equally well. Yet, the basic physical principles underlying most networks strongly suggest that all feasible graphs are not equally likely. In particular, vertices that co-occur in many observations are probably closely connected. Previous approaches to this problem are based on ad hoc heuristics. We model the experimental observations as independent realizations of a random walk on the underlying graph, subjected to a random permutation which accounts for the lack of order information. Treating the permutations as missing data, we derive an exact expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the random walk parameters. For long transmission paths the exact E-step may be computationally intractable, so we also describe an efficient Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm and derive conditions which ensure convergence of the MCEM algorithm with high probability. Simulations and experiments with Internet measurements demonstrate the promise of this approach.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Information Theory. An extended version is available as University of Wisconsin Technical Report ECE-06-

On Quantifying Qualitative Geospatial Data: A Probabilistic Approach

Living in the era of data deluge, we have witnessed a web content explosion, largely due to the massive availability of User-Generated Content (UGC). In this work, we specifically consider the problem of geospatial information extraction and representation, where one can exploit diverse sources of information (such as image and audio data, text data, etc), going beyond traditional volunteered geographic information. Our ambition is to include available narrative information in an effort to better explain geospatial relationships: with spatial reasoning being a basic form of human cognition, narratives expressing such experiences typically contain qualitative spatial data, i.e., spatial objects and spatial relationships. To this end, we formulate a quantitative approach for the representation of qualitative spatial relations extracted from UGC in the form of texts. The proposed method quantifies such relations based on multiple text observations. Such observations provide distance and orientation features which are utilized by a greedy Expectation Maximization-based (EM) algorithm to infer a probability distribution over predefined spatial relationships; the latter represent the quantified relationships under user-defined probabilistic assumptions. We evaluate the applicability and quality of the proposed approach using real UGC data originating from an actual travel blog text corpus. To verify the quality of the result, we generate grid-based maps visualizing the spatial extent of the various relations

Context-Aware Zero-Shot Recognition

We present a novel problem setting in zero-shot learning, zero-shot object recognition and detection in the context. Contrary to the traditional zero-shot learning methods, which simply infers unseen categories by transferring knowledge from the objects belonging to semantically similar seen categories, we aim to understand the identity of the novel objects in an image surrounded by the known objects using the inter-object relation prior. Specifically, we leverage the visual context and the geometric relationships between all pairs of objects in a single image, and capture the information useful to infer unseen categories. We integrate our context-aware zero-shot learning framework into the traditional zero-shot learning techniques seamlessly using a Conditional Random Field (CRF). The proposed algorithm is evaluated on both zero-shot region classification and zero-shot detection tasks. The results on Visual Genome (VG) dataset show that our model significantly boosts performance with the additional visual context compared to traditional methods

Multiple-Play Bandits in the Position-Based Model

Sequentially learning to place items in multi-position displays or lists is a task that can be cast into the multiple-play semi-bandit setting. However, a major concern in this context is when the system cannot decide whether the user feedback for each item is actually exploitable. Indeed, much of the content may have been simply ignored by the user. The present work proposes to exploit available information regarding the display position bias under the so-called Position-based click model (PBM). We first discuss how this model differs from the Cascade model and its variants considered in several recent works on multiple-play bandits. We then provide a novel regret lower bound for this model as well as computationally efficient algorithms that display good empirical and theoretical performance

Messy Data Modelling in Health Care Contingent Valuation Studies

This study addresses the complexity in modeling contingent valuation surveys with true zeros and non-ignorable missing responses including “don’t knows†and protest responses. An endogenous switching tobit model is specified to simultaneously estimate the parameters of the latent willingness to pay (WTP) decision variable and the latent true WTP level. A Bayesian technique is developed using MCMC methods data augmentation and Metropolis Hastings algorithm with Gibbs sampling for estimating the endogenous switching tobit model. The Bayesian approach presented here is useful even for finite sample size and for models with relatively flat likelihood like sample selection models for which convergence is a problem or even if convergence is achieved correlation of the latent random errors are outside the (-1,1) range. The proposed methodology is applied to a single-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation model using British Eurowill data on evaluating cancer health care program. Results in this study reveal that the interview interest scores for the unresolved or missing cases are substantially high and not far from scores of “yes†respondents. The pattern in the values of socio-economic and health related variables shows that these unresolved cases are not missing completely at random so that they may actually contain valuable information at least on the willingness decision process of respondents. Inclusion of these unresolved cases is essential to modelling WTP decision and true WTP level as reflected in the higher sum of log conditional predictive ordinate(SLCPO) goodness-of-fit criterion for a cross-validation sample and higher covariance between the latent random errors of the latent self-selection or WTP decision variable and the true WTP level model. The positive covariance and correlation of the latent random errors may explain why the true WTP levels in DC contingent valuation studies are oftentimes overestimated. The model presented in this paper may also be applied to double bounded dichotomous choice models with slight modification.non-ignorable missing values, single-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies,Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Probabilistic Models over Ordered Partitions with Application in Learning to Rank

This paper addresses the general problem of modelling and learning rank data with ties. We propose a probabilistic generative model, that models the process as permutations over partitions. This results in super-exponential combinatorial state space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown ordering among them. We approach the problem from the discrete choice theory, where subsets are chosen in a stagewise manner, reducing the state space per each stage significantly. Further, we show that with suitable parameterisation, we can still learn the models in linear time. We evaluate the proposed models on the problem of learning to rank with the data from the recently held Yahoo! challenge, and demonstrate that the models are competitive against well-known rivals.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure