Model Checking Trust-based Multi-Agent Systems

Trust has been the focus of many research projects, both theoretical and practical, in the recent years, particularly in domains where open multi-agent technologies are applied (e.g., Internet-based markets, Information retrieval, etc.). The importance of trust in such domains arises mainly because it provides a social control that regulates the relationships and interactions among agents. Despite the growing number of various multi-agent applications, they still encounter many challenges in their formal modeling and the verification of agents’ behaviors. Many formalisms and approaches that facilitate the specifications of trust in Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) can be found in the literature. However, most of these approaches focus on the cognitive side of trust where the trusting entity is normally capable of exhibiting properties about beliefs, desires, and intentions. Hence, the trust is considered as a belief of an agent (the truster) involving ability and willingness of the trustee to perform some actions for the truster. Nevertheless, in open MASs, entities can join and leave the interactions at any time. This means MASs will actually provide no guarantee about the behavior of their agents, which makes the capability of reasoning about trust and checking the existence of untrusted computations highly desired. This thesis aims to address the problem of modeling and verifying at design time trust in MASs by (1) considering a cognitive-independent view of trust where trust ingredients are seen from a non-epistemic angle, (2) introducing a logical language named Trust Computation Tree Logic (TCTL), which extends CTL with preconditional, conditional, and graded trust operators along with a set of reasoning postulates in order to explore its capabilities, (3) proposing a new accessibility relation which is needed to define the semantics of the trust modal operators. This accessibility relation is defined so that it captures the intuition of trust while being easily computable, (4) investigating the most intuitive and efficient algorithm for computing the trust set by developing, implementing, and experimenting different model checking techniques in order to compare between them in terms of memory consumption, efficiency, and scalability with regard to the number of considered agents, (5) evaluating the performance of the model checking techniques by analyzing the time and space complexity. The approach has been applied to different application domains to evaluate its computational performance and scalability. The obtained results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed approach, making it a promising methodology in practice

Coalgebraic Reasoning with Global Assumptions in Arithmetic Modal Logics

We establish a generic upper bound ExpTime for reasoning with global assumptions (also known as TBoxes) in coalgebraic modal logics. Unlike earlier results of this kind, our bound does not require a tractable set of tableau rules for the instance logics, so that the result applies to wider classes of logics. Examples are Presburger modal logic, which extends graded modal logic with linear inequalities over numbers of successors, and probabilistic modal logic with polynomial inequalities over probabilities. We establish the theoretical upper bound using a type elimination algorithm. We also provide a global caching algorithm that potentially avoids building the entire exponential-sized space of candidate states, and thus offers a basis for practical reasoning. This algorithm still involves frequent fixpoint computations; we show how these can be handled efficiently in a concrete algorithm modelled on Liu and Smolka's linear-time fixpoint algorithm. Finally, we show that the upper complexity bound is preserved under adding nominals to the logic, i.e. in coalgebraic hybrid logic.Comment: Extended version of conference paper in FCT 201

Achieving while maintaining:A logic of knowing how with intermediate constraints

In this paper, we propose a ternary knowing how operator to express that the agent knows how to achieve $\phi$ given $\psi$ while maintaining $\chi$ in-between. It generalizes the logic of goal-directed knowing how proposed by Yanjing Wang 2015 'A logic of knowing how'. We give a sound and complete axiomatization of this logic.Comment: appear in Proceedings of ICLA 201

Efficient treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis

The main goals of this thesis are the development of a computationally efficient framework for stochastic treatment of various important uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, its application to a newly created seismic risk model of Indonesia, and the analysis and quantification of the impact of these uncertainties on the distribution of estimated seismic losses for a large number of synthetic portfolios modeled after real-world counterparts. The treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis has already been identified as an area that could benefit from increased research attention. Furthermore, it has become evident that the lack of research considering the development and application of suitable sampling schemes to increase the computational efficiency of the stochastic simulation represents a bottleneck for applications where model runtime is an important factor. In this research study, the development and state of the art of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis is first reviewed and opportunities for improved treatment of uncertainties are identified. A newly developed framework for the stochastic treatment of portfolio location uncertainty as well as ground motion and damage uncertainty is presented. The framework is then optimized with respect to computational efficiency. Amongst other techniques, a novel variance reduction scheme for portfolio location uncertainty is developed. Furthermore, in this thesis, some well-known variance reduction schemes such as Quasi Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube Sampling and MISER (locally adaptive recursive stratified sampling) are applied for the first time to seismic hazard and risk assessment. The effectiveness and applicability of all used schemes is analyzed. Several chapters of this monograph describe the theory, implementation and some exemplary applications of the framework. To conduct these exemplary applications, a seismic hazard model for Indonesia was developed and used for the analysis and quantification of loss uncertainty for a large collection of synthetic portfolios. As part of this work, the new framework was integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment software suite developed and used by Munich Reinsurance Group. Furthermore, those parts of the framework that deal with location and damage uncertainties are also used by the flood and storm natural catastrophe model development groups at Munich Reinsurance for their risk models

Exact Non-Parametric Bayesian Inference on Infinite Trees

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A Bayesian would assign a data-independent prior probability to "subdivide", which leads to a prior over infinite(ly many) trees. We derive an exact, fast, and simple inference algorithm for such a prior, for the data evidence, the predictive distribution, the effective model dimension, moments, and other quantities. We prove asymptotic convergence and consistency results, and illustrate the behavior of our model on some prototypical functions.Comment: 32 LaTeX pages, 9 figures, 5 theorems, 1 algorith

Efficient treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis

The main goals of this thesis are the development of a computationally efficient framework for stochastic treatment of various important uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, its application to a newly created seismic risk model of Indonesia, and the analysis and quantification of the impact of these uncertainties on the distribution of estimated seismic losses for a large number of synthetic portfolios modeled after real-world counterparts. The treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis has already been identified as an area that could benefit from increased research attention. Furthermore, it has become evident that the lack of research considering the development and application of suitable sampling schemes to increase the computational efficiency of the stochastic simulation represents a bottleneck for applications where model runtime is an important factor. In this research study, the development and state of the art of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis is first reviewed and opportunities for improved treatment of uncertainties are identified. A newly developed framework for the stochastic treatment of portfolio location uncertainty as well as ground motion and damage uncertainty is presented. The framework is then optimized with respect to computational efficiency. Amongst other techniques, a novel variance reduction scheme for portfolio location uncertainty is developed. Furthermore, in this thesis, some well-known variance reduction schemes such as Quasi Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube Sampling and MISER (locally adaptive recursive stratified sampling) are applied for the first time to seismic hazard and risk assessment. The effectiveness and applicability of all used schemes is analyzed. Several chapters of this monograph describe the theory, implementation and some exemplary applications of the framework. To conduct these exemplary applications, a seismic hazard model for Indonesia was developed and used for the analysis and quantification of loss uncertainty for a large collection of synthetic portfolios. As part of this work, the new framework was integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment software suite developed and used by Munich Reinsurance Group. Furthermore, those parts of the framework that deal with location and damage uncertainties are also used by the flood and storm natural catastrophe model development groups at Munich Reinsurance for their risk models

Online Handbook of Argumentation for AI: Volume 1

This volume contains revised versions of the papers selected for the first volume of the Online Handbook of Argumentation for AI (OHAAI). Previously, formal theories of argument and argument interaction have been proposed and studied, and this has led to the more recent study of computational models of argument. Argumentation, as a field within artificial intelligence (AI), is highly relevant for researchers interested in symbolic representations of knowledge and defeasible reasoning. The purpose of this handbook is to provide an open access and curated anthology for the argumentation research community. OHAAI is designed to serve as a research hub to keep track of the latest and upcoming PhD-driven research on the theory and application of argumentation in all areas related to AI.Comment: editor: Federico Castagna and Francesca Mosca and Jack Mumford and Stefan Sarkadi and Andreas Xydi