23,114 research outputs found

    A Methodology for Robust Multiproxy Paleoclimate Reconstructions and Modeling of Temperature Conditional Quantiles

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    Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is anomalous in a millennial context. These regression based approaches model the conditional mean of the temperature distribution as a function of paleoclimate proxies (or vice versa). Some of the recent focus in the area has considered methods which help reduce the uncertainty inherent in such statistical paleoclimate reconstructions, with the ultimate goal of improving the confidence that can be attached to such endeavors. A second important scientific focus in the subject area is the area of forward models for proxies, the goal of which is to understand the way paleoclimate proxies are driven by temperature and other environmental variables. In this paper we introduce novel statistical methodology for (1) quantile regression with autoregressive residual structure, (2) estimation of corresponding model parameters, (3) development of a rigorous framework for specifying uncertainty estimates of quantities of interest, yielding (4) statistical byproducts that address the two scientific foci discussed above. Our statistical methodology demonstrably produces a more robust reconstruction than is possible by using conditional-mean-fitting methods. Our reconstruction shares some of the common features of past reconstructions, but also gains useful insights. More importantly, we are able to demonstrate a significantly smaller uncertainty than that from previous regression methods. In addition, the quantile regression component allows us to model, in a more complete and flexible way than least squares, the conditional distribution of temperature given proxies. This relationship can be used to inform forward models relating how proxies are driven by temperature

    DeMoN: Depth and Motion Network for Learning Monocular Stereo

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    In this paper we formulate structure from motion as a learning problem. We train a convolutional network end-to-end to compute depth and camera motion from successive, unconstrained image pairs. The architecture is composed of multiple stacked encoder-decoder networks, the core part being an iterative network that is able to improve its own predictions. The network estimates not only depth and motion, but additionally surface normals, optical flow between the images and confidence of the matching. A crucial component of the approach is a training loss based on spatial relative differences. Compared to traditional two-frame structure from motion methods, results are more accurate and more robust. In contrast to the popular depth-from-single-image networks, DeMoN learns the concept of matching and, thus, better generalizes to structures not seen during training.Comment: Camera ready version for CVPR 2017. Supplementary material included. Project page: http://lmb.informatik.uni-freiburg.de/people/ummenhof/depthmotionnet

    DM-PhyClus: A Bayesian phylogenetic algorithm for infectious disease transmission cluster inference

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    Background. Conventional phylogenetic clustering approaches rely on arbitrary cutpoints applied a posteriori to phylogenetic estimates. Although in practice, Bayesian and bootstrap-based clustering tend to lead to similar estimates, they often produce conflicting measures of confidence in clusters. The current study proposes a new Bayesian phylogenetic clustering algorithm, which we refer to as DM-PhyClus, that identifies sets of sequences resulting from quick transmission chains, thus yielding easily-interpretable clusters, without using any ad hoc distance or confidence requirement. Results. Simulations reveal that DM-PhyClus can outperform conventional clustering methods, as well as the Gap procedure, a pure distance-based algorithm, in terms of mean cluster recovery. We apply DM-PhyClus to a sample of real HIV-1 sequences, producing a set of clusters whose inference is in line with the conclusions of a previous thorough analysis. Conclusions. DM-PhyClus, by eliminating the need for cutpoints and producing sensible inference for cluster configurations, can facilitate transmission cluster detection. Future efforts to reduce incidence of infectious diseases, like HIV-1, will need reliable estimates of transmission clusters. It follows that algorithms like DM-PhyClus could serve to better inform public health strategies
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