8,001 research outputs found
Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning
A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system
parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting
studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode
decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the
Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and
gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree
techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the
forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity
function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis
function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction
and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the
background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of
power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based
algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting
of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning
algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six
the experimental results in the following electric power problems are
presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for
the wind speed and direction forecasting
Detecting Outliers in Data with Correlated Measures
Advances in sensor technology have enabled the collection of large-scale
datasets. Such datasets can be extremely noisy and often contain a significant
amount of outliers that result from sensor malfunction or human operation
faults. In order to utilize such data for real-world applications, it is
critical to detect outliers so that models built from these datasets will not
be skewed by outliers.
In this paper, we propose a new outlier detection method that utilizes the
correlations in the data (e.g., taxi trip distance vs. trip time). Different
from existing outlier detection methods, we build a robust regression model
that explicitly models the outliers and detects outliers simultaneously with
the model fitting.
We validate our approach on real-world datasets against methods specifically
designed for each dataset as well as the state of the art outlier detectors.
Our outlier detection method achieves better performances, demonstrating the
robustness and generality of our method. Last, we report interesting case
studies on some outliers that result from atypical events.Comment: 10 page
COMET: A Recipe for Learning and Using Large Ensembles on Massive Data
COMET is a single-pass MapReduce algorithm for learning on large-scale data.
It builds multiple random forest ensembles on distributed blocks of data and
merges them into a mega-ensemble. This approach is appropriate when learning
from massive-scale data that is too large to fit on a single machine. To get
the best accuracy, IVoting should be used instead of bagging to generate the
training subset for each decision tree in the random forest. Experiments with
two large datasets (5GB and 50GB compressed) show that COMET compares favorably
(in both accuracy and training time) to learning on a subsample of data using a
serial algorithm. Finally, we propose a new Gaussian approach for lazy ensemble
evaluation which dynamically decides how many ensemble members to evaluate per
data point; this can reduce evaluation cost by 100X or more
Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction
Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they
fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of
ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data
that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we
leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for
crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We
employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to
investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of
crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that
spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and
checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on
census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to
65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal
out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population
of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's
crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the
predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such
features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults
are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and
discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results
offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law
enforcement
GumDrop at the DISRPT2019 Shared Task: A Model Stacking Approach to Discourse Unit Segmentation and Connective Detection
In this paper we present GumDrop, Georgetown University's entry at the DISRPT
2019 Shared Task on automatic discourse unit segmentation and connective
detection. Our approach relies on model stacking, creating a heterogeneous
ensemble of classifiers, which feed into a metalearner for each final task. The
system encompasses three trainable component stacks: one for sentence
splitting, one for discourse unit segmentation and one for connective
detection. The flexibility of each ensemble allows the system to generalize
well to datasets of different sizes and with varying levels of homogeneity.Comment: Proceedings of Discourse Relation Parsing and Treebanking
(DISRPT2019
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