Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

We propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic time series of arbitrary shape (the carrier wave). To model rates, a population offset is added. Two-dimensional trends and modulation are estimated using a tensor product B-spline basis of moderate dimension. Further smoothness is ensured using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. The optimal penalty tuning parameters are chosen based on minimization of a quasi-information criterion. Computationally efficient estimation is achieved using array regression techniques, avoiding excessively large matrices. The model is applied to female death rate in the US due to cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases

Seasonal modulation mixed models for time series forecasting

We propose an extension of a seasonal modulation smooth model with P-splines for times series data using a mixed model formulation. A smooth trend with seasonality decomposition can be estimated simultaneously. We extend the model to consider the forecasting of new future observations in the mixed model framework. Two different approaches are used for forecasting in the context of mixed models, and the equivalence of both methods is shown. The methodology is illustrated with monthly sulphur dioxide (SO2) levels in a selection of monitoring sites in Europe from January 1990 to December 2001.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (projects MTM2008-02901, and MTM2011-28285-C02-02). The research of Dae-Jin Lee was also funded by an NIH grant for the Superfund Metal Mixtures, Biomarkers and Neurodevelopment project 1PA2ES016454-01A2

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 355)

This bibliography lists 147 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System during October, 1991. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and psychology, life support systems and controlled environments, safety equipment, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, and flight crew behavior and performance

Twenty years of P-splines

P-splines first appeared in the limelight twenty years ago. Since then they have become popular in applications and in theoretical work. The combination of a rich B-spline basis and a simple difference penalty lends itself well to a variety of generalizations, because it is based on regression. In effect, P-splines allow the building of a “backbone” for the “mixing and matching” of a variety of additive smooth structure components, while inviting all sorts of extensions: varying-coefficient effects, signal (functional) regressors, two-dimensional surfaces, non-normal responses, quantile (expectile) modelling, among others. Strong connections with mixed models and Bayesian analysis have been established. We give an overview of many of the central developments during the first two decades of P-splines.Peer Reviewe

Twenty years of P-splines

P-splines first appeared in the limelight twenty years ago. Since then they have become popular in applications and in theoretical work. The combination of a rich B-spline basis and a simple difference penalty lends itself well to a variety of generalizations, because it is based on regression. In effect, P-splines allow the building of a “backbone” for the “mixing and matching” of a variety of additive smooth structure components, while inviting all sorts of extensions: varying-coefficient effects, signal (functional) regressors, two-dimensional surfaces, non-normal responses, quantile (expectile) modelling, among others. Strong connections with mixed models and Bayesian analysis have been established. We give an overview of many of the central developments during the first two decades of P-splines

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report no. 7: EOS system definition report. Appendixes A through D

An analysis of the systems involved in the operation and support of the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) is presented. Among the systems considered are the following: (1) the data management system, (2) observatory to primary ground station communications links, (3) local user system, (4) techniques for recognizing ground control points, (5) the central data processing-implementation concept, and (6) program effectiveness analysis

Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ~ 45% tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60% and 70% tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ~60 %–65%tree cover and steeply declined at > 65% tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ~15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that longterm fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene

Bivariate copula additive models for location, scale and shape

In generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), the response distribution is not restricted to belong to the exponential family and all the model’s parameters can be made dependent on additive predictors that allow for several types of covariate effects (such as linear, non-linear, random and spatial effects). In many empirical situations, however, modeling simultaneously two or more responses conditional on some covariates can be of considerable relevance. The scope of GAMLSS is extended by introducing bivariate copula models with continuous margins for the GAMLSS class. The proposed computational tool permits the copula dependence and marginal distribution parameters to be estimated simultaneously, and each parameter to be modeled using an additive predictor. Simultaneous parameter estimation is achieved within a penalized likelihood framework using a trust region algorithm with integrated automatic multiple smoothing parameter selection. The introduced approach allows for straightforward inclusion of potentially any parametric marginal distribution and copula function. The models can be easily used via the copulaReg() function in the R package SemiParBIVProbit. The proposal is illustrated through two case studies and simulated data

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 24: SeaWiFS technical report series cumulative index, volumes 1-23

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) is the follow-on ocean color instrument to the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), which ceased operations in 1986, after an eight-year mission. SeaWiFS is expected to be launched in 1995, on the SeaStar satellite, being built by Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). The SeaWiFS Project at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), has undertaken the responsibility of documenting all aspects of this mission, which is critical to the ocean color and marine science communities. This documentation, entitled the SeaWiFS Technical Report Series, is the form of NASA Technical Memorandum Number 104566. All reports published are volumes within the series. This particular volume serves as a reference, or guidebook, to the previous 23 volumes and consists of 6 sections including: an errata, an addendum (summaries of various SeaWiFS Working Group Bio-optical Algorithm and Protocols Subgroups Workshops, and other auxiliary information), an index to key words and phrases, a list of all references cited, and lists of acronyms and symbols used. It is the editors' intention to publish a cumulative index of this type after every five volumes in the series. Each index covers the topics published in all previous editions, that is, each new index will include all of the information contained in the preceeding indices

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 28: SeaWiFS algorithms, part 1

This document provides five brief reports that address several algorithm investigations sponsored by the Calibration and Validation Team (CVT) within the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project. This volume, therefore, has been designated as the first in a series of algorithm volumes. Chapter 1 describes the initial suite of masks, used to prevent further processing of contaminated radiometric data, and flags, which are employed to mark data whose quality (due to a variety of factors) may be suspect. In addition to providing the mask and flag algorithms, this chapter also describes the initial strategy for their implementation. Chapter 2 evaluates various strategies for the detection of clouds and ice in high latitude (polar and sub-polar regions) using Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) data. Chapter 3 presents an algorithm designed for detecting and masking coccolithosphore blooms in the open ocean. Chapter 4 outlines a proposed scheme for correcting the out-of-band response when SeaWiFS is in orbit. Chapter 5 gives a detailed description of the algorithm designed to apply sensor calibration data during the processing of level-1b data