Tri-level decision-making with multiple followers: Model, algorithm and case study

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. Tri-level decision-making arises to address compromises among interacting decision entities distributed throughout a three-level hierarchy; these entities are respectively termed the top-level leader, the middle-level follower and the bottom-level follower. This study considers an uncooperative situation where multiple followers at the same (middle or bottom) level make their individual decisions independently but consider the decision results of their counterparts as references through information exchanged among themselves. This situation is called a reference-based uncooperative multi-follower tri-level (MFTL) decision problem which appears in many real-world applications. To solve this problem, we need to find an optimal solution achieving both the Stackelberg equilibrium in the three-level vertical structure and the Nash equilibrium among multiple followers at the same horizontal level. In this paper, we first propose a general linear MFTL decision model for this situation. We then develop a MFTL Kth-Best algorithm to find an optimal solution to the model. Since the optimal solution means a compromised result in the uncooperative situation and it is often imprecise or ambiguous for decision entities to identify their related satisfaction, we use a fuzzy programming approach to characterize and evaluate the solution obtained. Lastly, a real-world case study on production-inventory planning illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed MFTL decision techniques

Inexact Direct-Search Methods for Bilevel Optimization Problems

In this work, we introduce new direct search schemes for the solution of bilevel optimization (BO) problems. Our methods rely on a fixed accuracy black box oracle for the lower-level problem, and deal both with smooth and potentially nonsmooth true objectives. We thus analyze for the first time in the literature direct search schemes in these settings, giving convergence guarantees to approximate stationary points, as well as complexity bounds in the smooth case. We also propose the first adaptation of mesh adaptive direct search schemes for BO. Some preliminary numerical results on a standard set of bilevel optimization problems show the effectiveness of our new approaches

Personalized Medicine in Chronic Disease Management.

Chronic diseases are persistent medical conditions which affect half of all adults in the United States. The nature of these long-term chronic conditions present monitoring and treatment challenges to practicing clinicians and medical researchers: (1) how to use information learned about each patient's disease characteristics over time to tailor monitoring and treatment decisions, (2) how to make sequential decisions when each decision has strong implications for future decisions, and (3) how to incentivize adherence to prescribed medications. By combining operations research with the principles of personalized medicine, this work develops novel mathematical models to answer high impact clinical questions faced when managing patients with chronic conditions. We begin our research by understanding how information about a single patient can be used to personalize the patient's forecasted disease dynamics and likelihood of disease progression. Next, we consider how models of heterogeneity in disease characteristics and patient behavior can be embedded within an optimization framework to design individualized treatment plans. Finally, we develop a model for copayment restructuring to improve patient adherence to individualized treatment plans.PhDIndustrial and Operations EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111447/1/schellg_1.pd

Risk, Security and Robust Solutions

The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-theoretic approach to security management of uncertain multi-agent systems. Security is defined as the ability to deal with intentional and unintentional threats generated by agents. The main concern of the paper is the protection of public goods from these threats allowing explicit treatment of inherent uncertainties and robust security management solutions. The paper shows that robust solutions can be properly designed by new stochastic optimization tools applicable for multicriteria problems with uncertain probability distributions and multivariate extreme events

OPTIMIZATION OF RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION HAZMATS AND REGULAR COMMODITIES

Transportation of dangerous goods has been receiving more attention in the realm of academic and scientific research during the last few decades as countries have been increasingly becoming industrialized throughout the world, thereby making Hazmats an integral part of our life style. However, the number of scholarly articles in this field is not as many as those of other areas in SCM. Considering the low-probability-and-high-consequence (LPHC) essence of transportation of Hazmats, on the one hand, and immense volume of shipments accounting for more than hundred tons in North America and Europe, on the other, we can safely state that the number of scholarly articles and dissertations have not been proportional to the significance of the subject of interest. On this ground, we conducted our research to contribute towards further developing the domain of Hazmats transportation, and sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), in general terms. Transportation of Hazmats, from logistical standpoint, may include all modes of transport via air, marine, road and rail, as well as intermodal transportation systems. Although road shipment is predominant in most of the literature, railway transportation of Hazmats has proven to be a potentially significant means of transporting dangerous goods with respect to both economies of scale and risk of transportation; these factors, have not just given rise to more thoroughly investigation of intermodal transportation of Hazmats using road and rail networks, but has encouraged the competition between rail and road companies which may indeed have some inherent advantages compared to the other medium due to their infrastructural and technological backgrounds. Truck shipment has ostensibly proven to be providing more flexibility; trains, per contra, provide more reliability in terms of transport risk for conveying Hazmats in bulks. In this thesis, in consonance with the aforementioned motivation, we provide an introduction into the hazardous commodities shipment through rail network in the first chapter of the thesis. Providing relevant statistics on the volume of Hazmat goods, number of accidents, rate of incidents, and rate of fatalities and injuries due to the incidents involving Hazmats, will shed light onto the significance of the topic under study. As well, we review the most pertinent articles while putting more emphasis on the state-of-the-art papers, in chapter two. Following the discussion in chapter 3 and looking at the problem from carrier company’s perspective, a mixed integer quadratically constraint problem (MIQCP) is developed which seeks for the minimization of transportation cost under a set of constraints including those associating with Hazmats. Due to the complexity of the problem, the risk function has been piecewise linearized using a set of auxiliary variables, thereby resulting in an MIP problem. Further, considering the interests of both carrier companies and regulatory agencies, which are minimization of cost and risk, respectively, a multiobjective MINLP model is developed, which has been reduced to an MILP through piecewise linearization of the risk term in the objective function. For both single-objective and multiobjective formulations, model variants with bifurcated and nonbifurcated flows have been presented. Then, in chapter 4, we carry out experiments considering two main cases where the first case presents smaller instances of the problem and the second case focuses on a larger instance of the problem. Eventually, in chapter five, we conclude the dissertation with a summary of the overall discussion as well as presenting some comments on avenues of future work

Network revenue management game in the rail freight industry

PhD ThesisThe study aims to design the optimal track access tariff to coordinate the relationship between an Infrastructure Manager (IM) and a Freight Operating Company (FOC) in a vertical separated railway system. In practice, the IM takes advantage of leader position in determining the prices to unilaterally maximise its profits without the collaboration with the FOC, which leads to a sub-optimal situation. The interaction between the IM and the FOC is modelled as a network-based Stackelberg game. First, a rigorous bilevel optimisation model is presented that determines the best prices for an IM to maximise its profits without any collaboration with the FOC. The lower level of the bilevel model contains binary integer variables representing the FOC’s choices on the itineraries, which is a challenging optimisation problem not resolved in the literature. The study proposes a uniquely designed solution method involving both gradient search and local search to successfully solve the problem. Secondly, an inverse programming model is developed to determine the IM’s prices to maximise the system profit and achieve global optimality. A Fenchel cutting plane based algorithm is developed to solve the inverse optimisation model. Thirdly, a government subsidy based pricing mechanism is designed. To identify the optimal amount of subsidy, a double-layer gradient search and local search method is developed. The proposed mechanism can lead to the global optimality and ensure that the IM and the FOC are better off than the above two scenarios. Numerical cases based on the data from the UK rail freight industry are conducted to validate the models and algorithms. The results reveal that both the optimal prices obtained via inverse optimisation and the subsidy contract outperform the non-cooperation case in the current industrial practice; and that the cooperation between the IM and the FOC in determining track access tariff is better than non-cooperation

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationA safe and secure transportation system is critical to providing protection to those who employ it. Safety is being increasingly demanded within the transportation system and transportation facilities and services will need to adapt to change to provide it. This dissertation provides innovate methodologies to identify current shortcomings and provide theoretic frameworks for enhancing the safety and security of the transportation network. This dissertation is designed to provide multilevel enhanced safety and security within the transportation network by providing methodologies to identify, monitor, and control major hazards associated within the transportation network. The risks specifically addressed are: (1) enhancing nuclear materials sensor networks to better deter and interdict smugglers, (2) use game theory as an interdiction model to design better sensor networks and forensically track smugglers, (3) incorporate safety into regional transportation planning to provide decision-makers a basis for choosing safety design alternatives, and (4) use a simplified car-following model that can incorporate errors to predict situational-dependent safety effects of distracted driving in an ITS infrastructure to deploy live-saving countermeasures

Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments

This book presents the collection of fifty papers which were presented in the Second International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY 2011 - Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments , held in Póvoa de Varzim, Portugal, from 22ndto 24thof June, 2011.The main motive of the meeting was growing awareness of the importance of the sustainability issue. This importance had emerged from the growing uncertainty of the market behaviour that leads to the characterization of the market, i.e. environment, as turbulent. Actually, the characterization of the environment as uncertain and turbulent reflects the fact that the traditional technocratic and/or socio-technical approaches cannot effectively and efficiently lead with the present situation. In other words, the rise of the sustainability issue means the quest for new instruments to deal with uncertainty and/or turbulence. The sustainability issue has a complex nature and solutions are sought in a wide range of domains and instruments to achieve and manage it. The domains range from environmental sustainability (referring to natural environment) through organisational and business sustainability towards social sustainability. Concerning the instruments for sustainability, they range from traditional engineering and management methodologies towards “soft” instruments such as knowledge, learning, and creativity. The papers in this book address virtually whole sustainability problems space in a greater or lesser extent. However, although the uncertainty and/or turbulence, or in other words the dynamic properties, come from coupling of management, technology, learning, individuals, organisations and society, meaning that everything is at the same time effect and cause, we wanted to put the emphasis on business with the intention to address primarily companies and their businesses. Due to this reason, the main title of the book is “Business Sustainability 2.0” but with the approach of coupling Management, Technology and Learning for individuals, organisations and society in Turbulent Environments. Also, the notation“2.0” is to promote the publication as a step further from our previous publication – “Business Sustainability I” – as would be for a new version of software. Concerning the Second International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, its particularity was that it had served primarily as a learning environment in which the papers published in this book were the ground for further individual and collective growth in understanding and perception of sustainability and capacity for building new instruments for business sustainability. In that respect, the methodology of the conference work was basically dialogical, meaning promoting dialog on the papers, but also including formal paper presentations. In this way, the conference presented a rich space for satisfying different authors’ and participants’ needs. Additionally, promoting the widest and global learning environment and participation, in accordance with the Conference's assumed mission to promote Proactive Generative Collaborative Learning, the Conference Organisation shares/puts open to the community the papers presented in this book, as well as the papers presented on the previous Conference(s). These papers can be accessed from the conference webpage (http://labve.dps.uminho.pt/bs11). In these terms, this book could also be understood as a complementary instrument to the Conference authors’ and participants’, but also to the wider readerships’ interested in the sustainability issues. The book brought together 107 authors from 11 countries, namely from Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Serbia, Switzerland, and United States of America. The authors “ranged” from senior and renowned scientists to young researchers providing a rich and learning environment. At the end, the editors hope, and would like, that this book to be useful, meeting the expectation of the authors and wider readership and serving for enhancing the individual and collective learning, and to incentive further scientific development and creation of new papers. Also, the editors would use this opportunity to announce the intention to continue with new editions of the conference and subsequent editions of accompanying books on the subject of BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, the third of which is planned for year 2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Stochastic Bilevel Models for Revenue Management in the Hotel Industry

RÉSUMÉ : La Gestion du Revenu consiste à maximiser le revenu des compagnies. Cette technique est pratiquée, entre autres, dans les secteurs de l’aéronautique, des télécommunications et de l'hôtellerie. Dans cette thèse, nous développons et résolvons un modèle stochastique biniveau pour l’industrie hôtelière qui est considérée, de nos jours, comme une industrie mûre caractérisée par une forte compétition et une gestion des inventaires compliquée. Nous avons remarqué que durant ces trente dernières années, la recherche dans le domaine de la gestion du revenu dans l’industrie hôtelière n’a pas proposé ou résolu de modèles qui considèrent simultanément l’affectation des inventaires, le prix, la longueur du séjour, la qualité de service et l’incertitude. Par conséquent, le but de cette thèse est de développer un nouveau modèle de gestion du revenu dans l’industrie hôtelière qui permet aux gestionnaires d’hôtels de prendre en compte certaines données pertinentes pour la prise des décisions relatives à la tarification et l’affectation des inventaires en se basant sur une meilleure compréhension du comportement des clients et de l’incertitude du marché. Nous nous inspirons pour cela des modèles biniveau de tarification et des modèles stochastiques à deux étapes. Dans le cas déterministe, le meneur (leader) de l’industrie essaie, au niveau supérieur, de fixer les prix de ses inventaires de façon à maximiser ses revenus. Puis, les usagers essaient, au niveau inférieur, de minimiser leurs dépenses en fonction des différentes alternatives. Dans le but d'introduire le facteur de l'incertitude, nous avons développé un modèle stochastique à deux étapes: à la première étape, le meneur, comme dans le cas déterministe, fixe ses prix en maximisant ses profits. Puis, chaque groupe d’utilisateurs choisit, au niveau inférieur, les inventaires les moins chers tout en considérant les attributs qu'ils ont préalablement définis (distance et qualité de service). À la seconde étape, nous introduisons de l'incertitude sur le prix fixé par les concurrents ainsi que sur la demande. En réaction, le meneur doit ajuster ses prix et ses affectations d’inventaires, ce qui implique des changements dans les distributions des groupes d’usagers aussi. Ces deux étapes sont liées par des contraintes absolues et proportionnelles relatives à la variation du prix de chaque inventaire. Comme ce modèle est un modèle stochastique biniveau à deux étapes, il hérite la propriété NP-Difficile du modèle biniveau déterministe. Dans ce modèle, nous considérons que l’incertitude peut être modélisée en utilisant des vecteurs aléatoires qui suivent une certaine distribution de probabilité connue. Cette information peut provenir des données historiques ou d’une connaissance empirique de la fonction de masse qui représente fidèlement la vraie distribution. Nous supposons que les vecteurs aléatoires ont un nombre fini de réalisations qui, dans notre cas, correspondent aux scénarios. Afin de résoudre notre modèle, nous avons développé non seulement des stratégies exactes, mais aussi des heuristiques. La stratégie exacte consiste à transformer le problème de base en un problème MIP (Mixed Integer Program), qui est standard pour ce type de problème. La principale réussite en termes d’heuristiques est le développement d’une heuristique gloutonne capable de résoudre le problème de manière efficace. Cette heuristique consiste à copier les prix des concurrents et à ré-optimiser en faveur du meneur. Pour continuer avec une recherche globale, le processus d’exploration a été suivi par un problème MIP restreint qui se base sur la solution fournie par notre heuristique. Finalement, la stratégie exacte supportée par les heuristiques consiste à ajouter au problème MIP original une heuristique qui cherche les solutions entières, par la procédure d’évaluation et séparation progressive (B&B), et qui permet d’ajuster directement la borne inférieure. Une fois que les heuristiques et le modèle ont été développés, nous avons créé un processus de génération de données. Ce processus cherche non seulement à générer des instances réalistes pour l’industrie, mais aussi à éviter les situations atypiques. Pour cela, nous avons modélisé la fluctuation du prix et de la demande en utilisant des variables aléatoires uniformes, et nous avons développé un processus analytique qui permet d’ignorer rapidement les situations atypiques. Les résultats numériques sont présentés pour les trois stratégies précédentes. Le résultat le plus satisfaisant est celui basé sur notre heuristique complétée par un problème MIP restreint. De plus, les résultats obtenus sont en accord avec le comportement économique. Selon que le meneur a ou n’a pas d’avantage compétitif en ce qui concerne la localisation des hôtels, il aura un comportement plus ou moins prédateur face à ses concurrents. Dans le cas où il a un avantage compétitif, le meneur cherchera à imiter le prix de ses concurrents afin d’attirer les groupes d’usagers offrant les revenus les plus importants. Lorsque le meneur n’est pas dans une position avantageuse, il fixera ses prix plus bas que ses concurrents pour attirer les groupes d’utilisateurs qui sont sensibles à la distance, mais aussi ceux qui sont plus sensibles à la qualité du service. Pour cela, il devra relocaliser ses inventaires en ignorant les groupes d’usagers qui lui procureront de faibles revenus. Finalement, un certain nombre d’analyses de sensibilité ont été réalisées pour évaluer la performance du modèle. Premièrement, nous avons introduit la stochasticité simultanément sur le prix et la demande. Ensuite, nous avons complexifié le modèle en variant la capacité de l’industrie. Notre heuristique a permis d’obtenir un résultat conforme au comportement économique espéré. Par conséquent, les principales contributions de cette recherche sont: l’élaboration d’un modèle complexe pour la gestion des revenus hôteliers, la résolution de grands et de petits exemples en un temps de calcul raisonnable, l’obtention de bons résultats grâce à l’utilisation de notre heuristique (même si nous ne pouvons pas garantir qu’il s’agit de la solution optimale), et l’offre de résultats utiles pour la prise de décision dans l’industrie hôtelière.----------ABSTRACT : Revenue Management consists in maximizing a company’s revenue. This technique is applied in the airline, telecommunications, and hospitality industry, among others. In this thesis, we develop and solve a stochastic bilevel model for the hotel industry, which is nowadays considered as a mature industry marked by an intense competition and by a complex inventory management. We noticed that over the last 30 years, Hotel Revenue Management research has not proposed and solved models that consider simultaneously inventory assignments, price, length of stay, quality of service and uncertainty. Therefore, the purpose of this doctoral research is to develop a new model for Hotel Revenue Management that is inspired from bilevel pricing models and from the Two-stage Stochastic Models and that allows hotel’s managers to account with useful data for pricing decision and assignment allocation, based on a better understanding of consumers’ behavior and market uncertainty. In a deterministic model, the leader of the industry tries to set prices to its inventories, maximizing its revenue in the upper level, and users choose the lowest cumulative expenditures among available alternatives, at the lower level. In order to introduce uncertainty information, we have developed a two-stage model: in the first stage the leader set its prices with the goal of maximizing profits in the upper level, and each users’ group chooses the least expensive inventory considering the attributes previously defined by them (distance and quality of service), at the lower level. In the second stage, we introduce uncertain information about competitors’ prices and demand, and thus the leader must set again its prices and inventory allocations, which also implies changes in users’ group distributions. The stages are tied by price variation in each inventory through an absolute and proportional constraint. It is difficult to solve the bilevel programming problem. The non-convexity usually present in bilevel programming results in the complexity of the solution algorithm. Even a very simple bilevel problem is still a NP-hard problem The NP-hard property of deteministic bilevel programs is also present in our two-stage stochastic bilevel model. We consider that uncertainty can be modeled with the support of random vectors that follow a known distribution function. This information might come from historical data or from the empirical knowledge of the distribution function, and that is close to the true unknown uncertainty. We assume that the random vectors have a finite number of realizations, which in our case corresponds to the scenarios. In order to solve our model, we developed not only exact strategies but also heuristics. The exact strategy consisted in transforming the basic problem into a MIP problem using the KKT conditions (or optimality conditions), through the use of big constants and auxiliary binary variables. The main achievement in terms of heuristics is the development of our greedy heuristic, which was able to solve the problem efficiently. This heuristic consisted in copying competitors’ prices and re-optimizing in favor of the leader. To keep a global search, the exploration process was followed by a MIP restricted problem that took as origin the solution provided by our heuristic. Finally, the exact strategy supported by heuristics consisted in adding to the MIP original problem a heuristic that looks for integer solutions directly in the branch and bound (B&B) tree. Once the model and the heuristics were developed, a data generation process was designed. The procedure sought not only to generate realistic instances for the industry but also to avoid unfeasible situations. To do this, we modeled price and demand fluctuations through the use of uniform random variables and we developed an analytical process that allowed us to disregard quickly atypical situations. The numerical results are presented for the two previous strategies, being the most performing the one based on our heuristic complemented with the MIP restricted problem. Moreover, the obtained results performed as expected in terms of its economic behavior. Depending on having or not a competitive advantage with respect to the location of its hotels, the leader has a more or less predatory behavior with its competition. In a situation under a competitive advantage, the leader seeks to imitate the price of its competitors in order to attract users’ groups that provide the highest revenue. If the leader is not in an advantageous position, it set lower prices than the competition to compensate users’ groups more sensible to distance. At the same time, it set competitive prices to attract users’ groups that are more sensitive to quality of service than to distance, which implies that the leader reallocates its inventories and disregards users’ groups providing lower revenues. Finally, a certain number of sensitivity analyzes were conducted to evaluate the performance of the model. First, we introduced stochasticity on price and demand simultaneously and then, we added more complexity by varying the capacity of the industry. The heuristic was able to obtain a result, which was again behaving economically as expected. Therefore, the main contributions of this research are to provide a elaborated model for Hotel Revenu Management, to solve small and large instances in a reasonable computing time, to obtain good results through the use of our heuristic (although we cannot assure it is the optimal solution), and to provide very useful results such as: pricing information, users group distribution in inventories, users group revenue contributions, sensitivity to capacity parameters, for decision making in the hotel industry

WiFi-Based Human Activity Recognition Using Attention-Based BiLSTM

Recently, significant efforts have been made to explore human activity recognition (HAR) techniques that use information gathered by existing indoor wireless infrastructures through WiFi signals without demanding the monitored subject to carry a dedicated device. The key intuition is that different activities introduce different multi-paths in WiFi signals and generate different patterns in the time series of channel state information (CSI). In this paper, we propose and evaluate a full pipeline for a CSI-based human activity recognition framework for 12 activities in three different spatial environments using two deep learning models: ABiLSTM and CNN-ABiLSTM. Evaluation experiments have demonstrated that the proposed models outperform state-of-the-art models. Also, the experiments show that the proposed models can be applied to other environments with different configurations, albeit with some caveats. The proposed ABiLSTM model achieves an overall accuracy of 94.03%, 91.96%, and 92.59% across the 3 target environments. While the proposed CNN-ABiLSTM model reaches an accuracy of 98.54%, 94.25% and 95.09% across those same environments