A New Predictive Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques: Evidence for Decision Making in Agriculture and Tourism Sectors

Accurate time series prediction techniques are becoming fundamental to modern decision support systems. As massive data processing develops in its practicality, machine learning (ML) techniques applied to time series can automate and improve prediction models. The radical novelty of this paper is the development of a hybrid model that combines a new approach to the classical Kalman filter with machine learning techniques, i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks, to improve the performance of existing predictive models. The proposed hybrid model uses, on the one hand, an improved Kalman filter method that eliminates the convergence problems of time series data with large error variance and, on the other hand, an ML algorithm as a correction factor to predict the model error. The results reveal that our hybrid models obtain accurate predictions, substantially reducing the root mean square and absolute mean errors compared to the classical and alternative Kalman filter models and achieving a goodness of fit greater than 0.95. Furthermore, the generalization of this algorithm was confirmed by its validation in two different scenariosThe authors acknowledge the support provided by the companies that released the data used for the analysi

Machine learning methods for sign language recognition: a critical review and analysis.

Sign language is an essential tool to bridge the communication gap between normal and hearing-impaired people. However, the diversity of over 7000 present-day sign languages with variability in motion position, hand shape, and position of body parts making automatic sign language recognition (ASLR) a complex system. In order to overcome such complexity, researchers are investigating better ways of developing ASLR systems to seek intelligent solutions and have demonstrated remarkable success. This paper aims to analyse the research published on intelligent systems in sign language recognition over the past two decades. A total of 649 publications related to decision support and intelligent systems on sign language recognition (SLR) are extracted from the Scopus database and analysed. The extracted publications are analysed using bibliometric VOSViewer software to (1) obtain the publications temporal and regional distributions, (2) create the cooperation networks between affiliations and authors and identify productive institutions in this context. Moreover, reviews of techniques for vision-based sign language recognition are presented. Various features extraction and classification techniques used in SLR to achieve good results are discussed. The literature review presented in this paper shows the importance of incorporating intelligent solutions into the sign language recognition systems and reveals that perfect intelligent systems for sign language recognition are still an open problem. Overall, it is expected that this study will facilitate knowledge accumulation and creation of intelligent-based SLR and provide readers, researchers, and practitioners a roadmap to guide future direction

New perspectives and methods for stream learning in the presence of concept drift.

153 p.Applications that generate data in the form of fast streams from non-stationary environments, that is,those where the underlying phenomena change over time, are becoming increasingly prevalent. In thiskind of environments the probability density function of the data-generating process may change overtime, producing a drift. This causes that predictive models trained over these stream data become obsoleteand do not adapt suitably to the new distribution. Specially in online learning scenarios, there is apressing need for new algorithms that adapt to this change as fast as possible, while maintaining goodperformance scores. Examples of these applications include making inferences or predictions based onfinancial data, energy demand and climate data analysis, web usage or sensor network monitoring, andmalware/spam detection, among many others.Online learning and concept drift are two of the most hot topics in the recent literature due to theirrelevance for the so-called Big Data paradigm, where nowadays we can find an increasing number ofapplications based on training data continuously available, named as data streams. Thus, learning in nonstationaryenvironments requires adaptive or evolving approaches that can monitor and track theunderlying changes, and adapt a model to accommodate those changes accordingly. In this effort, Iprovide in this thesis a comprehensive state-of-the-art approaches as well as I identify the most relevantopen challenges in the literature, while focusing on addressing three of them by providing innovativeperspectives and methods.This thesis provides with a complete overview of several related fields, and tackles several openchallenges that have been identified in the very recent state of the art. Concretely, it presents aninnovative way to generate artificial diversity in ensembles, a set of necessary adaptations andimprovements for spiking neural networks in order to be used in online learning scenarios, and finally, adrift detector based on this former algorithm. All of these approaches together constitute an innovativework aimed at presenting new perspectives and methods for the field

New perspectives and methods for stream learning in the presence of concept drift.

153 p.Applications that generate data in the form of fast streams from non-stationary environments, that is,those where the underlying phenomena change over time, are becoming increasingly prevalent. In thiskind of environments the probability density function of the data-generating process may change overtime, producing a drift. This causes that predictive models trained over these stream data become obsoleteand do not adapt suitably to the new distribution. Specially in online learning scenarios, there is apressing need for new algorithms that adapt to this change as fast as possible, while maintaining goodperformance scores. Examples of these applications include making inferences or predictions based onfinancial data, energy demand and climate data analysis, web usage or sensor network monitoring, andmalware/spam detection, among many others.Online learning and concept drift are two of the most hot topics in the recent literature due to theirrelevance for the so-called Big Data paradigm, where nowadays we can find an increasing number ofapplications based on training data continuously available, named as data streams. Thus, learning in nonstationaryenvironments requires adaptive or evolving approaches that can monitor and track theunderlying changes, and adapt a model to accommodate those changes accordingly. In this effort, Iprovide in this thesis a comprehensive state-of-the-art approaches as well as I identify the most relevantopen challenges in the literature, while focusing on addressing three of them by providing innovativeperspectives and methods.This thesis provides with a complete overview of several related fields, and tackles several openchallenges that have been identified in the very recent state of the art. Concretely, it presents aninnovative way to generate artificial diversity in ensembles, a set of necessary adaptations andimprovements for spiking neural networks in order to be used in online learning scenarios, and finally, adrift detector based on this former algorithm. All of these approaches together constitute an innovativework aimed at presenting new perspectives and methods for the field

The State of the Art in Deep Learning Applications, Challenges, and Future Prospects::A Comprehensive Review of Flood Forecasting and Management

Floods are a devastating natural calamity that may seriously harm both infrastructure and people. Accurate flood forecasts and control are essential to lessen these effects and safeguard populations. By utilizing its capacity to handle massive amounts of data and provide accurate forecasts, deep learning has emerged as a potent tool for improving flood prediction and control. The current state of deep learning applications in flood forecasting and management is thoroughly reviewed in this work. The review discusses a variety of subjects, such as the data sources utilized, the deep learning models used, and the assessment measures adopted to judge their efficacy. It assesses current approaches critically and points out their advantages and disadvantages. The article also examines challenges with data accessibility, the interpretability of deep learning models, and ethical considerations in flood prediction. The report also describes potential directions for deep-learning research to enhance flood predictions and control. Incorporating uncertainty estimates into forecasts, integrating many data sources, developing hybrid models that mix deep learning with other methodologies, and enhancing the interpretability of deep learning models are a few of these. These research goals can help deep learning models become more precise and effective, which will result in better flood control plans and forecasts. Overall, this review is a useful resource for academics and professionals working on the topic of flood forecasting and management. By reviewing the current state of the art, emphasizing difficulties, and outlining potential areas for future study, it lays a solid basis. Communities may better prepare for and lessen the destructive effects of floods by implementing cutting-edge deep learning algorithms, thereby protecting people and infrastructure

Learning-based wildfire tracking with unmanned aerial vehicles

This project attempts to design a path planning algorithm for a group of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to track multiple spreading wildfire zones on a wildland. Due to the physical limitations of UAVs, the wildland is partially observable. Thus, the fire spreading is difficult to model. An online training regression neural network using real-time UAV observation data is implemented for fire front positions prediction. The wildfire tracking with UAVs path planning algorithm is proposed by Q-learning. Various practical factors are considered by designing an appropriate cost function which can describe the tracking problem, such as importance of the moving targets, field of view of UAVs, spreading speed of fire zones, collision avoidance between UAVs, obstacle avoidance, and maximum information collection. To improve the computation efficiency, a vertices-based fire line feature extraction is used to reduce the fire line targets. Simulation results under various wind conditions validate the fire prediction accuracy and UAV tracking performance.Includes bibliographical references

Advanced Optimization Methods and Big Data Applications in Energy Demand Forecast

The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting. In light of the above, this Special Issue collects the latest research on relevant topics, in particular in energy demand forecasts, and the use of advanced optimization methods and big data techniques. Here, by energy, we mean any kind of energy, e.g., electrical, solar, microwave, or win

Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research, 1988-1989

The research conducted during 1988 to 1989 under the NASA/FAA-sponsored Joint University Program for Air Transportation Research is summarized. The Joint University Program is a coordinated set of three grants sponsored by NASA Langley Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration, one each with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio University, and Princeton University. Completed works, status reports, and annotated bibliographies are presented for research topics, which include computer science, guidance and control theory and practice, aircraft performance, flight dynamics, and applied experimental psychology. An overview of the year's activities for each university is also presented

Assessment of monthly rain fade in the equatorial region at C & KU-band using measat-3 satellite links

C & Ku-band satellite communication links are the most commonly used for equatorial satellite communication links. Severe rainfall rate in equatorial regions can cause a large rain attenuation in real compared to the prediction. ITU-R P. 618 standards are commonly used to predict satellite rain fade in designing satellite communication network. However, the prediction of ITU-R is still found to be inaccurate hence hinder a reliable operational satellite communication link in equatorial region. This paper aims to provide an accurate insight by assessment of the monthly C & Ku-band rain fade performance by collecting data from commercial earth stations using C band and Ku-band antenna with 11 m and 13 m diameter respectively. The antennas measure the C & Ku-band beacon signal from MEASAT-3 under equatorial rain conditions. The data is collected for one year in 2015. The monthly cumulative distribution function is developed based on the 1-year data. RMSE analysis is made by comparing the monthly measured data of C-band and Ku-band to the ITU-R predictions developed based on ITU-R’s P.618, P.837, P.838 and P.839 standards. The findings show that Ku-band produces an average of 25 RMSE value while the C-band rain attenuation produces an average of 2 RMSE value. Therefore, the ITU-R model still under predicts the rain attenuation in the equatorial region and this call for revisit of the fundamental quantity in determining the rain fade for rain attenuation to be re-evaluated