Detection and Continuation of a Border Collision Bifurcation in a Forest Fire Model

The behavior of the simplest forest fire model is studied in this paper through bifurcation analysis. The model is a second-order continuous-time impact model where vegetational growth is described as a continuous and slow dynamic process, while fires are modeled as instantaneous and disruptive events. The transition from Mediterranean forests (characterized by wild chaotic fire regimes) to savannas and boreal forests (where fires are almost periodic) is recognized to be a catastrophic transition known as border collision bifurcation in the context of discrete-tine systems. In the present case such a bifurcation can be easily detected numerically and then continued by solving a standard boundary-value problem. The result of the analysis complements previous simulation studies and are consistent with biological intuition

Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

Rethinking tipping points in spatial ecosystems

The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered a lot of attention in the last decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing environmental stress. However, typically ecosystem models that predict tipping do not resolve space explicitly. As ecosystems are inherently spatial, it is important to understand the effects of incorporating spatial processes in models, and how those insights translate to the real world. Moreover, spatial ecosystem structures, such as vegetation patterns, are important in the prediction of ecosystem response in the face of environmental change. Models and observations from real savanna ecosystems and drylands have suggested that they may exhibit both tipping behavior as well as spatial pattern formation. Hence, in this paper, we use mathematical models of humid savannas and drylands to illustrate several pattern formation phenomena that may arise when incorporating spatial dynamics in models that exhibit tipping without resolving space. We argue that such mechanisms challenge the notion of large scale critical transitions in response to global change and reveal a more resilient nature of spatial ecosystems

A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present 3: Mathematical analogues and simulation models

In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behvaiour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a simulation or mathematical analogue nature. Most simulation models are implementations of existing empirical or quasi-empirical models and their primary function is to convert these generally one dimensional models to two dimensions and then propagate a fire perimeter across a modelled landscape. Mathematical analogue models are those that are based on some mathematical conceit (rather than a physical representation of fire spread) that coincidentally simulates the spread of fire. Other papers in the series review models of an physical or quasi-physical nature and empirical or quasi-empirical nature. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.Comment: 20 pages + 9 pages references + 1 page figures. Submitted to the International Journal of Wildland Fir

Connectivity Influences on Nonlinear Dynamics in Weakly-Synchronized Networks: Insights from Rössler Systems, Electronic Chaotic Oscillators, Model and Biological Neurons

Natural and engineered networks, such as interconnected neurons, ecological and social networks, coupled oscillators, wireless terminals and power loads, are characterized by an appreciable heterogeneity in the local connectivity around each node. For instance, in both elementary structures such as stars and complex graphs having scale-free topology, a minority of elements are linked to the rest of the network disproportionately strongly. While the effect of the arrangement of structural connections on the emergent synchronization pattern has been studied extensively, considerably less is known about its influence on the temporal dynamics unfolding within each node. Here, we present a comprehensive investigation across diverse simulated and experimental systems, encompassing star and complex networks of Rössler systems, coupled hysteresis-based electronic oscillators, microcircuits of leaky integrate-and-fire model neurons, and finally recordings from in-vitro cultures of spontaneously-growing neuronal networks. We systematically consider a range of dynamical measures, including the correlation dimension, nonlinear prediction error, permutation entropy, and other information-theoretical indices. The empirical evidence gathered reveals that under situations of weak synchronization, wherein rather than a collective behavior one observes significantly differentiated dynamics, denser connectivity tends to locally promote the emergence of stronger signatures of nonlinear dynamics. In deterministic systems, transition to chaos and generation of higher-dimensional signals were observed; however, when the coupling is stronger, this relationship may be lost or even inverted. In systems with a strong stochastic component, the generation of more temporally-organized activity could be induced. These observations have many potential implications across diverse fields of basic and applied science, for example, in the design of distributed sensing systems based on wireless coupled oscillators, in network identification and control, as well as in the interpretation of neuroscientific and other dynamical data

Analytical and numerical bifurcation analysis of a forest ecosystem model with human interaction

We perform both analytical and numerical bifurcation analysis of an alternating forest and grassland ecosystem model coupled with human interaction. The model consists of two nonlinear ordinary differential equations incorporating the human perception of the value of the forest. The system displays multiple steady states corresponding to different forest densities as well as regimes characterized by both stable and unstable limit cycles. We derive analytically the conditions with respect to the model parameters that give rise to various types of codimension-one criticalities such as transcritical, saddle-node, and Andronov-Hopf bifurcations and codimension-two criticalities such as cusp and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations at which homoclinic orbits occur. We also perform a numerical continuation of the branches of limit cycles. By doing so, we reveal turning points of limit cycles marking the appearance/disappearance of sustained oscillations. Such critical points that cannot be detected analytically give rise to the abrupt loss of the sustained oscillations, thus leading to another mechanism of catastrophic shifts

Integrating Ecological and Engineering Concepts of Resilience in Microbial Communities

Many definitions of resilience have been proffered for natural and engineered ecosystems, but a conceptual consensus on resilience in microbial communities is still lacking. We argue that the disconnect largely results from the wide variance in microbial community complexity, which range from compositionally simple synthetic consortia to complex natural communities, and divergence between the typical practical outcomes emphasized by ecologists and engineers. Viewing microbial communities as elasto-plastic systems that undergo both recoverable and unrecoverable transitions, we argue that this gap between the engineering and ecological definitions of resilience stems from their respective emphases on elastic and plastic deformation, respectively. We propose that the two concepts may be fundamentally united around the resilience of function rather than state in microbial communities and the regularity in the relationship between environmental variation and a community\u27s functional response. Furthermore, we posit that functional resilience is an intrinsic property of microbial communities and suggest that state changes in response to environmental variation may be a key mechanism driving functional resilience in microbial communities