Towards a European Union Child Basic Income? Within and between country effects

ABSTRACT: This paper explores the within and between country distributional implications of an illustrative Child Basic Income (CBI) operated at EU level. Using EUROMOD, we establish that a universal payment of €50 per month per child aged under 6 could take 800,000 children in this age group out of poverty. It could be financed by an EU flat tax of 0.2% on all household income, assuming that it would also be taxed nationally as income. Most member states and virtually all families with children aged under 6 would be net gainers. We simulate two versions of EU CBI, with the benefit rate of €50 per month adjusted or not for differences in purchasing power between member states. In general, fiscal flows between member states, and also poverty reduction, would be smaller under the adjusted version. The political feasibility of such a scheme might be questioned, especially within the net contributor countries. Nevertheless, for those seeking ways to strengthen solidarity across national boundaries, a scheme supporting the incomes of families with young children, wherever in the EU they might reside "could be a demonstration of the EU's commitment to children, to the future" (EC 2012a: 62)

Reweighting the New Zealand Household Economic Survey for Tax Microsimuilation Modelling

This paper reports a reweighting exercise for the New Zealand Household Economic Survey, which is the basis of the Treasury's microsimulation model, TaxMod. Comparisons of benefit expenditures in a variety of demographic groups, along with population data, reveal that TaxMod estimates differ substantially from totals based on administrative data, when the weights provided by Statistics New Zealand are used. After describing the method used to compute new weights, the calibration requirements are reported. These relate to the age structure of the population and the number of beneficiaries for Unemployment Benefit, Domestic Purposes Benefit, Invalid's and Sickness Benefits and Family Support and Tax Credits. The revised weights and expenditure estimates are reported and the resulting distribution of income examined. The new weights are found to produce much improved expenditure estimates, without distorting the resulting income distribution. The effects of reweighting are demonstrated using a simple policy simulation.Survey weights; minimum distance; microsimulation

Professions, entrepreneurs, employees and the new German tax (cut) reform 2000 - A MICSIM microsimulation analysis of distributional impacts

With the tax reform 2000 Germany has seen the implementation of the most ambitious tax reduction programme in its post-war history. In the period from 1998 to 2005, taxpayers will benefit substantially from net tax relief more than DM 100 billions in total. It is expected, that private consumption and investment are stimulated - two essential requirements for promoting growth and employment. Under the aspect of the tax reform 2000 and the ‘Karlsruher Entwurf’ (an expert draft on further income tax reform approaches) compared to the former taxbase system we investigate in our paper overall and distributional and redistributional impacts on the self employed (professions (free lancers) and entrepreneurs) and employees besides other socioeconomic grouping like gender and family type. In addition, a decomposition analysis based on a generalized entropy approach quantifies the socioeconomic subgroups’ inequality contribution to overall inequality. Together with the recent poverty and wealth report for our government, this is the first time that the anonymized microdata records of the German Income Tax Statistic can be used by researchers within the Federal Statistical Office. Such a microdata file is essential for analysing above all the often neglected situation of the selfemployed; in traditional surveys, where, in principle, firm information yielding the final income and taxes to be paid are not available for the self-employed.Microsimulation, tax reform, distribution of income, redistribution, self-employed, liberal professions

The Life-Cycle Income Analysis Model (LIAM): a study of a flexible dynamic microsimulation modelling computing framework

This paper describes a flexible computing framework designed to create a dynamic microsimulation model, the Life-cycle Income Analysis Model (LIAM). The principle computing characteristics include the degree of modularisation, parameterisation, generalisation and robustness. The paper describes the decisions taken with regard to type of dynamic model used. The LIAM framework has been used to create a number of different microsimulation models, including an Irish dynamic cohort model, a spatial dynamic microsimulation model for Ireland, an indirect tax and consumption model for EU15 as part of EUROMOD and a prototype EU dynamic population microsimulation model for 5 EU countries. Particular consideration is given to issues of parameterisation, alignment and computational efficiency.flexible; modular; dynamic; alignment; parameterisation; computational efficiency

Using Spatial Microsimulation techniques in the Aggregation of Environmental Benefit Values: An Application to Corncrake Conservation on Irish Farmland

This paper considers the use of spatial microsimulation techniques in the growing area of Benefits Transfer. Benefits transfer involves the results of existing environmental valuation studies being applied to different policy contexts such as alternative populations or environmental sites. The spatial microsimulation model developed in this paper uses a combinational optimatisation technique called simulated annealing to match the Irish Census of Agriculture data to a Contingent Valuation Survey that contains information on Irish farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) to have the corncrake restored as a common sight in the Irish countryside. We then use this matched farm survey and Census information to produce small area population environmental benefit microdata estimates for the year 2005. These figures are then aggregated to get a total value figure for the farming community of Corncrake conservation in Ireland and compared to figures derived using more standard approaches to calculating aggregate environment benefit values

Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis

Much current debate focuses on the role of growth in alleviating poverty. However, the majority of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used in poverty and inequality analysis are static in nature. The inability of this kind of model to account for growth (accumulation) effects makes them inadequate for long run analysis of the poverty and inequality impacts of economic policies. They exclude accumulation effects and do not allow the study of the transition path of the economy where short run policy impacts are likely to be different from those of the long run. To overcome this limitation we use a sequential dynamic CGE microsimulation model that takes into account accumulation effects and makes it possible to study poverty and inequality through time. Changes in poverty are then decomposed into growth and distribution components in order to examine whether de-protection and factor accumulation are pro-poor or not. The model is applied to Senegalese data using a 1996 social accounting matrix and a 1995 survey of 3278 households. The main findings of this study are that trade liberalisation induces small increases in poverty and inequality in the short run as well as contractions in the initially protected agriculture and industrial sectors. In the long run, it enhances capital accumulation, particularly in the service and industrial sectors, and brings substantial decreases in poverty. However, a decomposition of poverty changes shows that income distribution worsens, with greater gains among urban dwellers and the non-poor.Dynamic CGE model, trade liberalisation, poverty, inequality, Senegal

Modelling public transport accessibility with Monte Carlo stochastic simulations: A case study of Ostrava

Activity-based micro-scale simulation models for transport modelling provide better evaluations of public transport accessibility, enabling researchers to overcome the shortage of reliable real-world data. Current simulation systems face simplifications of personal behaviour, zonal patterns, non-optimisation of public transport trips (choice of the fastest option only), and do not work with real targets and their characteristics. The new TRAMsim system uses a Monte Carlo approach, which evaluates all possible public transport and walking origin-destination (O-D) trips for k-nearest stops within a given time interval, and selects appropriate variants according to the expected scenarios and parameters derived from local surveys. For the city of Ostrava, Czechia, two commuting models were compared based on simulated movements to reach (a) randomly selected large employers and (b) proportionally selected employers using an appropriate distance-decay impedance function derived from various combinations of conditions. The validation of these models confirms the relevance of the proportional gravity-based model. Multidimensional evaluation of the potential accessibility of employers elucidates issues in several localities, including a high number of transfers, high total commuting time, low variety of accessible employers and high pedestrian mode usage. The transport accessibility evaluation based on synthetic trips offers an improved understanding of local situations and helps to assess the impact of planned changes.Web of Science1124art. no. 709