Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are activ

Distributed Maximum Likelihood for Simultaneous Self-localization and Tracking in Sensor Networks

We show that the sensor self-localization problem can be cast as a static parameter estimation problem for Hidden Markov Models and we implement fully decentralized versions of the Recursive Maximum Likelihood and on-line Expectation-Maximization algorithms to localize the sensor network simultaneously with target tracking. For linear Gaussian models, our algorithms can be implemented exactly using a distributed version of the Kalman filter and a novel message passing algorithm. The latter allows each node to compute the local derivatives of the likelihood or the sufficient statistics needed for Expectation-Maximization. In the non-linear case, a solution based on local linearization in the spirit of the Extended Kalman Filter is proposed. In numerical examples we demonstrate that the developed algorithms are able to learn the localization parameters.Comment: shorter version is about to appear in IEEE Transactions of Signal Processing; 22 pages, 15 figure

Alternative EM algorithms for nonlinear state-space models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordThe expectation-maximization algorithm is a commonly employed tool for system identification. However, for a large set of state-space models, the maximization step cannot be solved analytically. In these situations, a natural remedy is to make use of the expectation-maximization gradient algorithm, i.e., to replace the maximization step by a single iteration of Newton’s method. We propose alternative expectationmaximization algorithms that replace the maximization step with a single iteration of some other well-known optimization method. These algorithms parallel the expectation-maximization gradient algorithm while relaxing the assumption of a concave objective function. The benefit of the proposed expectation-maximization algorithms is demonstrated with examples based on standard observation models in tracking and localization

Computational intelligence approaches to robotics, automation, and control [Volume guest editors]

No abstract available