Two-stage prioritization procedure for multiplicative AHP-group decision making

In this paper, we propose two-stage prioritization procedure (TSPP) for multiplicative Analytic Hierarchy Process-group decision making (AHP-GDM), which involves determining the group priority vector based on the individual pair-wise comparison matrices (PCMs), simultaneously considering the consensus and consistency of the individual PCMs. The first stage of the TSPP involves checking and revising the individual PCMs for reaching the acceptable consensus and consistency. The second stage of the TSPP involves estimating the group priority vector using Bayesian approach. The main characteristics of the proposed TSPP are as follows: 1) It makes full use of the prior information as well as the sample information during the Bayesian revision of the individual PCMs and the Bayesian estimation of the group priority vector; 2) It ensures that the revised individual PCMs reach the acceptable consensus and consistency; 3) It enriches the aggregation methods for the collective preference in multiplicative AHP-GDM. Finally, two numerical examples are used to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed TSPP by the comparisons with several other methods

A Similarity Measure-based Optimization Model for Group Decision Making with Multiplicative and Fuzzy Preference Relations

Group decision making (GDM) problem based on different preference relations aims to obtain a collective opinion based on various preference structures provided by a group of decision makers (DMs) or experts, those who have varying backgrounds and interests in real world. The decision process in proposed question includes three steps: integrating varying preference structures, reaching consensus opinion, selecting the best alternative. Two major approaches: preference transformation and optimization methods have been developed to deal with the issue in first step. However, the transformation processes causes information lose and existing optimization methods are so computationally complex that it is not easy to be used by management practice. This study proposes a new consistency-based method to integrate multiplicative and fuzzy preference relations, which is based on a cosine similarity measure to derive a collective priority vector. The basic idea is that a collective priority vector should be as similar per column as possible to a pairwise comparative matrix (PCM) in order to assure the group preference has highest consistency for each decision makers. The model is computationally simple, because it can be solved using a Lagrangian approach and obtain a collective priority vector following four simple steps. The proposed method can further used to derive priority vector of fuzzy AHP. Using three illustrative examples, the effectiveness and simpleness of the proposed model is demonstrated by comparison with other methods. The results show that the proposed model achieves the largest cosine values in all three examples, indicating the solution is the nearest theoretical perfectly consistent opinion for each decision makers

Bayesian network modelling of an offshore electrical generation system for applications within an asset integrity case for normally unattended offshore installations

This article proposes the initial stages of the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of the integrity of an offshore system. The main focus is the construction of a Bayesian network model that demonstrates the interactions of multiple offshore safety critical elements to analyse asset integrity. The majority of the data required to complete the Bayesian network was gathered from various databases and past risk assessment experiments and projects. However, where data were incomplete or non-existent, expert judgement was applied through pairwise comparison, analytical hierarchy process and a symmetric method to fill these data gaps and to complete larger conditional probability tables. A normally unattended installation–Integrity Case will enable the user to determine the impact of deficiencies in asset integrity and demonstrate that integrity is being managed to ensure safe operations in situations whereby physical human-to-machine interaction is not occurring. The Integrity Case can be said to be dynamic as it shall be continually updated for an installation as the quantitative risk analysis data are recorded. This allows for the integrity of the various systems and components of an offshore installation to be continually monitored. The Bayesian network allows cause and effect relationships to be modelled through clear graphical representation. The model accommodates for continual updating of failure data

Asset integrity case development for normally unattended offshore installations: Bayesian network modelling

This research proposes the initial stages of the application of Bayesian Networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of the integrity of an offshore system. The main focus is the construction of a Bayesian network model that demonstrates the interactions of multiple offshore safety critical elements to analyse asset integrity. A NUI (Normally Unattended Installation) - Integrity Case will enable the user to determine the impact of deficiencies in asset integrity and demonstrate that integrity is being managed to ensure safe operations in situations whereby physical human to machine interaction is not occurring. The Integrity Case can be said to be dynamic as it shall be continually updated for an installation as the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) data is recorded. This allows for the integrity of the various systems and components of an offshore installation to be continually monitored. The Bayesian network allows cause-effect relationships to be modelled through clear graphical representation. The model accommodates for continual updating of failure data

Pairwise comparison matrix in multiple criteria decision making

The measurement scales, consistency index, inconsistency issues, missing judgment estimation and priority derivation methods have been extensively studied in the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). Various approaches have been proposed to handle these problems, and made great contributions to the decision making. This paper reviews the literature of the main developments of the PCM. There are plenty of literature related to these issues, thus we mainly focus on the literature published in 37 peer reviewed international journals from 2010 to 2015 (searched via ISI Web of science). We attempt to analyze and classify these literatures so as to find the current hot research topics and research techniques in the PCM, and point out the future directions on the PCM. It is hoped that this paper will provide a comprehensive literature review on PCM, and act as informative summary of the main developments of the PCM for the researchers for their future research. First published online: 02 Sep 201

Diseño de una metodología integrada entre jerarquía analítica y técnicas de consenso. Caso aplicado : protección de riesgos para tenderos

Con frecuencia en la toma de decisiones en grupo se utilizan los métodos de decisión multicriterio porque estas metodologías permiten tener en cuenta diversos criterio, alternativas v variables que intervienen en la decisión. En estos casos es importante definir cómo se van a integrar los diversos puntos de vista en, la decisión final. La agregación mediante promedio geométrico o aritmético de los resultados puede ser más sencilla sin embargo, se alcanzan mejores resultados mediante el consenso. En este documento, sé propone una metodología que integra la aplicación de la metodología AHP y el consenso para alcanzar un mejor resultado. Para probar la metodología, se aplicó al diseño de un seguro para tenderos pyme.Often in complex group decision making, multicriteria decision making methods (MCDM) are used? because these methodologies allow to consider the different, criteria, alternatives and variables that must be considered important to define how the different point of view would be integrated in the final decision. The aggregation of individual results through geometric or arithmetic easier, but generally decisions made by consensus are more complete and have more commitment from the group that must implement it. In this document a methodology that integrates the use of AHP and consensus is proposed. To prove the methodology, it was applied to the design of an insurance for mom and pop stores.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected Works), Vol. 4

The fourth volume on Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for information fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics. The contributions (see List of Articles published in this book, at the end of the volume) have been published or presented after disseminating the third volume (2009, http://fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book3.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals. First Part of this book presents the theoretical advancement of DSmT, dealing with Belief functions, conditioning and deconditioning, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Making, Multi-Criteria, evidence theory, combination rule, evidence distance, conflicting belief, sources of evidences with different importance and reliabilities, importance of sources, pignistic probability transformation, Qualitative reasoning under uncertainty, Imprecise belief structures, 2-Tuple linguistic label, Electre Tri Method, hierarchical proportional redistribution, basic belief assignment, subjective probability measure, Smarandache codification, neutrosophic logic, Evidence theory, outranking methods, Dempster-Shafer Theory, Bayes fusion rule, frequentist probability, mean square error, controlling factor, optimal assignment solution, data association, Transferable Belief Model, and others. More applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the third book of DSmT 2009. Subsequently, the second part of this volume is about applications of DSmT in correlation with Electronic Support Measures, belief function, sensor networks, Ground Moving Target and Multiple target tracking, Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Device, Belief Interacting Multiple Model filter, seismic and acoustic sensor, Support Vector Machines, Alarm classification, ability of human visual system, Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework, Threat Assessment, Handwritten Signature Verification, Automatic Aircraft Recognition, Dynamic Data-Driven Application System, adjustment of secure communication trust analysis, and so on. Finally, the third part presents a List of References related with DSmT published or presented along the years since its inception in 2004, chronologically ordered