3,315 research outputs found
Multilevel Double Loop Monte Carlo and Stochastic Collocation Methods with Importance Sampling for Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design
An optimal experimental set-up maximizes the value of data for statistical
inferences and predictions. The efficiency of strategies for finding optimal
experimental set-ups is particularly important for experiments that are
time-consuming or expensive to perform. For instance, in the situation when the
experiments are modeled by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), multilevel
methods have been proven to dramatically reduce the computational complexity of
their single-level counterparts when estimating expected values. For a setting
where PDEs can model experiments, we propose two multilevel methods for
estimating a popular design criterion known as the expected information gain in
simulation-based Bayesian optimal experimental design. The expected information
gain criterion is of a nested expectation form, and only a handful of
multilevel methods have been proposed for problems of such form. We propose a
Multilevel Double Loop Monte Carlo (MLDLMC), which is a multilevel strategy
with Double Loop Monte Carlo (DLMC), and a Multilevel Double Loop Stochastic
Collocation (MLDLSC), which performs a high-dimensional integration by
deterministic quadrature on sparse grids. For both methods, the Laplace
approximation is used for importance sampling that significantly reduces the
computational work of estimating inner expectations. The optimal values of the
method parameters are determined by minimizing the average computational work,
subject to satisfying the desired error tolerance. The computational
efficiencies of the methods are demonstrated by estimating the expected
information gain for Bayesian inference of the fiber orientation in composite
laminate materials from an electrical impedance tomography experiment. MLDLSC
performs better than MLDLMC when the regularity of the quantity of interest,
with respect to the additive noise and the unknown parameters, can be
exploited
Bayesian comparison of latent variable models: Conditional vs marginal likelihoods
Typical Bayesian methods for models with latent variables (or random effects)
involve directly sampling the latent variables along with the model parameters.
In high-level software code for model definitions (using, e.g., BUGS, JAGS,
Stan), the likelihood is therefore specified as conditional on the latent
variables. This can lead researchers to perform model comparisons via
conditional likelihoods, where the latent variables are considered model
parameters. In other settings, however, typical model comparisons involve
marginal likelihoods where the latent variables are integrated out. This
distinction is often overlooked despite the fact that it can have a large
impact on the comparisons of interest. In this paper, we clarify and illustrate
these issues, focusing on the comparison of conditional and marginal Deviance
Information Criteria (DICs) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criteria (WAICs) in
psychometric modeling. The conditional/marginal distinction corresponds to
whether the model should be predictive for the clusters that are in the data or
for new clusters (where "clusters" typically correspond to higher-level units
like people or schools). Correspondingly, we show that marginal WAIC
corresponds to leave-one-cluster out (LOcO) cross-validation, whereas
conditional WAIC corresponds to leave-one-unit out (LOuO). These results lead
to recommendations on the general application of the criteria to models with
latent variables.Comment: Manuscript in press at Psychometrika; 31 pages, 8 figure
On the Estimation of Nonrandom Signal Coefficients from Jittered Samples
This paper examines the problem of estimating the parameters of a bandlimited
signal from samples corrupted by random jitter (timing noise) and additive iid
Gaussian noise, where the signal lies in the span of a finite basis. For the
presented classical estimation problem, the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRB) is
computed, and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm approximating the
maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is developed. Simulations are performed to
study the convergence properties of the EM algorithm and compare the
performance both against the CRB and a basic linear estimator. These
simulations demonstrate that by post-processing the jittered samples with the
proposed EM algorithm, greater jitter can be tolerated, potentially reducing
on-chip ADC power consumption substantially.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure
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