6,676 research outputs found
Bayesian learning of models for estimating uncertainty in alert systems: application to air traffic conflict avoidance
Alert systems detect critical events which can happen in the short term. Uncertainties in data and in the models used for detection cause alert errors. In the case of air traffic control systems such as Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA), uncertainty increases errors in alerts of separation loss. Statistical methods that are based on analytical assumptions can provide biased estimates of uncertainties. More accurate analysis can be achieved by using Bayesian Model Averaging, which provides estimates of the posterior probability distribution of a prediction. We propose a new approach to estimate the prediction uncertainty, which is based on observations that the uncertainty can be quantified by variance of predicted outcomes. In our approach, predictions for which variances of posterior probabilities are above a given threshold are assigned to be uncertain. To verify our approach we calculate a probability of alert based on the extrapolation of closest point of approach. Using Heathrow airport flight data we found that alerts are often generated under different conditions, variations in which lead to alert detection errors. Achieving 82.1% accuracy of modelling the STCA system, which is a necessary condition for evaluating the uncertainty in prediction, we found that the proposed method is capable of reducing the uncertain component. Comparison with a bootstrap aggregation method has demonstrated a significant reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Realistic estimates of uncertainties will open up new approaches to improving the performance of alert systems
Deep Predictive Models for Collision Risk Assessment in Autonomous Driving
In this paper, we investigate a predictive approach for collision risk
assessment in autonomous and assisted driving. A deep predictive model is
trained to anticipate imminent accidents from traditional video streams. In
particular, the model learns to identify cues in RGB images that are predictive
of hazardous upcoming situations. In contrast to previous work, our approach
incorporates (a) temporal information during decision making, (b) multi-modal
information about the environment, as well as the proprioceptive state and
steering actions of the controlled vehicle, and (c) information about the
uncertainty inherent to the task. To this end, we discuss Deep Predictive
Models and present an implementation using a Bayesian Convolutional LSTM.
Experiments in a simple simulation environment show that the approach can learn
to predict impending accidents with reasonable accuracy, especially when
multiple cameras are used as input sources.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure
Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey
With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments,
the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human
behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future
positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key
tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance
systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We
review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different
communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on
the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We
provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We
discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further
research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR),
37 page
A Learning-Based Framework for Two-Dimensional Vehicle Maneuver Prediction over V2V Networks
Situational awareness in vehicular networks could be substantially improved
utilizing reliable trajectory prediction methods. More precise situational
awareness, in turn, results in notably better performance of critical safety
applications, such as Forward Collision Warning (FCW), as well as comfort
applications like Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC). Therefore,
vehicle trajectory prediction problem needs to be deeply investigated in order
to come up with an end to end framework with enough precision required by the
safety applications' controllers. This problem has been tackled in the
literature using different methods. However, machine learning, which is a
promising and emerging field with remarkable potential for time series
prediction, has not been explored enough for this purpose. In this paper, a
two-layer neural network-based system is developed which predicts the future
values of vehicle parameters, such as velocity, acceleration, and yaw rate, in
the first layer and then predicts the two-dimensional, i.e. longitudinal and
lateral, trajectory points based on the first layer's outputs. The performance
of the proposed framework has been evaluated in realistic cut-in scenarios from
Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) dataset and the results show a noticeable
improvement in the prediction accuracy in comparison with the kinematics model
which is the dominant employed model by the automotive industry. Both ideal and
nonideal communication circumstances have been investigated for our system
evaluation. For non-ideal case, an estimation step is included in the framework
before the parameter prediction block to handle the drawbacks of packet drops
or sensor failures and reconstruct the time series of vehicle parameters at a
desirable frequency
Role Playing Learning for Socially Concomitant Mobile Robot Navigation
In this paper, we present the Role Playing Learning (RPL) scheme for a mobile
robot to navigate socially with its human companion in populated environments.
Neural networks (NN) are constructed to parameterize a stochastic policy that
directly maps sensory data collected by the robot to its velocity outputs,
while respecting a set of social norms. An efficient simulative learning
environment is built with maps and pedestrians trajectories collected from a
number of real-world crowd data sets. In each learning iteration, a robot
equipped with the NN policy is created virtually in the learning environment to
play itself as a companied pedestrian and navigate towards a goal in a socially
concomitant manner. Thus, we call this process Role Playing Learning, which is
formulated under a reinforcement learning (RL) framework. The NN policy is
optimized end-to-end using Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), with
consideration of the imperfectness of robot's sensor measurements. Simulative
and experimental results are provided to demonstrate the efficacy and
superiority of our method
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