1,916 research outputs found

    Bayesian kernel-based system identification with quantized output data

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    In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential stability. This serves as a starting point to cast our system identification problem into a Bayesian framework. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to provide an estimate of the system. In particular, we show how to design a Gibbs sampler which quickly converges to the target distribution. Numerical simulations show a substantial improvement in the accuracy of the estimates over state-of-the-art kernel-based methods when employed in identification of systems with quantized data.Comment: Submitted to IFAC SysId 201

    A new kernel-based approach to system identification with quantized output data

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    In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential stability. This serves as a starting point to cast our system identification problem into a Bayesian framework. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to provide an estimate of the system. In particular, we design two methods based on the so-called Gibbs sampler that allow also to estimate the kernel hyperparameters by marginal likelihood maximization via the expectation-maximization method. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, as compared to the state-of-the-art kernel-based methods when these are employed in system identification with quantized data.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

    Identification of Parametric Underspread Linear Systems and Super-Resolution Radar

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    Identification of time-varying linear systems, which introduce both time-shifts (delays) and frequency-shifts (Doppler-shifts), is a central task in many engineering applications. This paper studies the problem of identification of underspread linear systems (ULSs), whose responses lie within a unit-area region in the delay Doppler space, by probing them with a known input signal. It is shown that sufficiently-underspread parametric linear systems, described by a finite set of delays and Doppler-shifts, are identifiable from a single observation as long as the time bandwidth product of the input signal is proportional to the square of the total number of delay Doppler pairs in the system. In addition, an algorithm is developed that enables identification of parametric ULSs from an input train of pulses in polynomial time by exploiting recent results on sub-Nyquist sampling for time delay estimation and classical results on recovery of frequencies from a sum of complex exponentials. Finally, application of these results to super-resolution target detection using radar is discussed. Specifically, it is shown that the proposed procedure allows to distinguish between multiple targets with very close proximity in the delay Doppler space, resulting in a resolution that substantially exceeds that of standard matched-filtering based techniques without introducing leakage effects inherent in recently proposed compressed sensing-based radar methods.Comment: Revised version of a journal paper submitted to IEEE Trans. Signal Processing: 30 pages, 17 figure

    Short and long-term wind turbine power output prediction

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    In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring, and preventive maintenance. As a first step, and following the guidelines of the existing literature, we use the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data to model the wind turbine power curve (WTPC). We explore various parametric and non-parametric approaches for the modeling of the WTPC, such as parametric logistic functions, and non-parametric piecewise linear, polynomial, or cubic spline interpolation functions. We demonstrate that all aforementioned classes of models are rich enough (with respect to their relative complexity) to accurately model the WTPC, as their mean squared error (MSE) is close to the MSE lower bound calculated from the historical data. We further enhance the accuracy of our proposed model, by incorporating additional environmental factors that affect the power output, such as the ambient temperature, and the wind direction. However, all aforementioned models, when it comes to forecasting, seem to have an intrinsic limitation, due to their inability to capture the inherent auto-correlation of the data. To avoid this conundrum, we show that adding a properly scaled ARMA modeling layer increases short-term prediction performance, while keeping the long-term prediction capability of the model
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