Consensus Labeled Random Finite Set Filtering for Distributed Multi-Object Tracking

This paper addresses distributed multi-object tracking over a network of heterogeneous and geographically dispersed nodes with sensing, communication and processing capabilities. The main contribution is an approach to distributed multi-object estimation based on labeled Random Finite Sets (RFSs) and dynamic Bayesian inference, which enables the development of two novel consensus tracking filters, namely a Consensus Marginalized $\delta$-Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli and Consensus Labeled Multi-Bernoulli tracking filter. The proposed algorithms provide fully distributed, scalable and computationally efficient solutions for multi-object tracking. Simulation experiments via Gaussian mixture implementations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach on challenging scenarios

Gaussian Process Prior Variational Autoencoders

Variational autoencoders (VAE) are a powerful and widely-used class of models to learn complex data distributions in an unsupervised fashion. One important limitation of VAEs is the prior assumption that latent sample representations are independent and identically distributed. However, for many important datasets, such as time-series of images, this assumption is too strong: accounting for covariances between samples, such as those in time, can yield to a more appropriate model specification and improve performance in downstream tasks. In this work, we introduce a new model, the Gaussian Process (GP) Prior Variational Autoencoder (GPPVAE), to specifically address this issue. The GPPVAE aims to combine the power of VAEs with the ability to model correlations afforded by GP priors. To achieve efficient inference in this new class of models, we leverage structure in the covariance matrix, and introduce a new stochastic backpropagation strategy that allows for computing stochastic gradients in a distributed and low-memory fashion. We show that our method outperforms conditional VAEs (CVAEs) and an adaptation of standard VAEs in two image data applications.Comment: Accepted at 32nd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2018), Montr\'eal, Canad

Trajectory PHD and CPHD filters

This paper presents the probability hypothesis density filter (PHD) and the cardinality PHD (CPHD) filter for sets of trajectories, which are referred to as the trajectory PHD (TPHD) and trajectory CPHD (TCPHD) filters. Contrary to the PHD/CPHD filters, the TPHD/TCPHD filters are able to produce trajectory estimates from first principles. The TPHD filter is derived by recursively obtaining the best Poisson multitrajectory density approximation to the posterior density over the alive trajectories by minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The TCPHD is derived in the same way but propagating an independent identically distributed (IID) cluster multitrajectory density approximation. We also propose the Gaussian mixture implementations of the TPHD and TCPHD recursions, the Gaussian mixture TPHD (GMTPHD) and the Gaussian mixture TCPHD (GMTCPHD), and the L-scan computationally efficient implementations, which only update the density of the trajectory states of the last L time steps.Comment: MATLAB implementations are provided here: https://github.com/Agarciafernandez/MT

Bayesian parameter estimation of core collapse supernovae using gravitational wave simulations

Using the latest numerical simulations of rotating stellar core collapse, we present a Bayesian framework to extract the physical information encoded in noisy gravitational wave signals. We fit Bayesian principal component regression models with known and unknown signal arrival times to reconstruct gravitational wave signals, and subsequently fit known astrophysical parameters on the posterior means of the principal component coefficients using a linear model. We predict the ratio of rotational kinetic energy to gravitational energy of the inner core at bounce by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution, and find that these predictions are generally very close to the true parameter values, with $90\%$ credible intervals $\sim 0.04$ and $\sim 0.06$ wide for the known and unknown arrival time models respectively. Two supervised machine learning methods are implemented to classify precollapse differential rotation, and we find that these methods discriminate rapidly rotating progenitors particularly well. We also introduce a constrained optimization approach to model selection to find an optimal number of principal components in the signal reconstruction step. Using this approach, we select 14 principal components as the most parsimonious model

Distributed Fusion with Multi-Bernoulli Filter based on Generalized Covariance Intersection

In this paper, we propose a distributed multi-object tracking algorithm through the use of multi-Bernoulli (MB) filter based on generalized Covariance Intersection (G-CI). Our analyses show that the G-CI fusion with two MB posterior distributions does not admit an accurate closed-form expression. To solve this challenging problem, we firstly approximate the fused posterior as the unlabeled version of $\delta$-generalized labeled multi-Bernoulli ($\delta$-GLMB) distribution, referred to as generalized multi-Bernoulli (GMB) distribution. Then, to allow the subsequent fusion with another multi-Bernoulli posterior distribution, e.g., fusion with a third sensor node in the sensor network, or fusion in the feedback working mode, we further approximate the fused GMB posterior distribution as an MB distribution which matches its first-order statistical moment. The proposed fusion algorithm is implemented using sequential Monte Carlo technique and its performance is highlighted by numerical results.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, under review for IEEE Trans. on Signal Process Volume: 65, Issue: 1, Jan.1, 1 201

Scalable Bayesian Inference for Excitatory Point Process Networks

Networks capture our intuition about relationships in the world. They describe the friendships between Facebook users, interactions in financial markets, and synapses connecting neurons in the brain. These networks are richly structured with cliques of friends, sectors of stocks, and a smorgasbord of cell types that govern how neurons connect. Some networks, like social network friendships, can be directly observed, but in many cases we only have an indirect view of the network through the actions of its constituents and an understanding of how the network mediates that activity. In this work, we focus on the problem of latent network discovery in the case where the observable activity takes the form of a mutually-excitatory point process known as a Hawkes process. We build on previous work that has taken a Bayesian approach to this problem, specifying prior distributions over the latent network structure and a likelihood of observed activity given this network. We extend this work by proposing a discrete-time formulation and developing a computationally efficient stochastic variational inference (SVI) algorithm that allows us to scale the approach to long sequences of observations. We demonstrate our algorithm on the calcium imaging data used in the Chalearn neural connectomics challenge

Open TURNS: An industrial software for uncertainty quantification in simulation

The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems and to answer tighter regulatory processes (security, safety, environmental control, and health impacts, etc.) have led to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take uncertainties into account when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. Therefore, a generic methodology has emerged from the joint effort of several industrial companies and academic institutions. EDF R&D, Airbus Group and Phimeca Engineering started a collaboration at the beginning of 2005, joined by IMACS in 2014, for the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk 'N Statistics. OpenTURNS addresses the specific industrial challenges attached to uncertainties, which are transparency, genericity, modularity and multi-accessibility. This paper focuses on OpenTURNS and presents its main features: openTURNS is an open source software under the LGPL license, that presents itself as a C++ library and a Python TUI, and which works under Linux and Windows environment. All the methodological tools are described in the different sections of this paper: uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and metamodeling. A section also explains the generic wrappers way to link openTURNS to any external code. The paper illustrates as much as possible the methodological tools on an educational example that simulates the height of a river and compares it to the height of a dyke that protects industrial facilities. At last, it gives an overview of the main developments planned for the next few years

Extrapolating Expected Accuracies for Large Multi-Class Problems

The difficulty of multi-class classification generally increases with the number of classes. Using data from a subset of the classes, can we predict how well a classifier will scale with an increased number of classes? Under the assumptions that the classes are sampled identically and independently from a population, and that the classifier is based on independently learned scoring functions, we show that the expected accuracy when the classifier is trained on k classes is the (k-1)st moment of a certain distribution that can be estimated from data. We present an unbiased estimation method based on the theory, and demonstrate its application on a facial recognition example.Comment: Submitted to JML

Advanced statistical methods for eye movement analysis and modeling: a gentle introduction

In this Chapter we show that by considering eye movements, and in particular, the resulting sequence of gaze shifts, a stochastic process, a wide variety of tools become available for analyses and modelling beyond conventional statistical methods. Such tools encompass random walk analyses and more complex techniques borrowed from the pattern recognition and machine learning fields. After a brief, though critical, probabilistic tour of current computational models of eye movements and visual attention, we lay down the basis for gaze shift pattern analysis. To this end, the concepts of Markov Processes, the Wiener process and related random walks within the Gaussian framework of the Central Limit Theorem will be introduced. Then, we will deliberately violate fundamental assumptions of the Central Limit Theorem to elicit a larger perspective, rooted in statistical physics, for analysing and modelling eye movements in terms of anomalous, non-Gaussian, random walks and modern foraging theory. Eventually, by resorting to machine learning techniques, we discuss how the analyses of movement patterns can develop into the inference of hidden patterns of the mind: inferring the observer's task, assessing cognitive impairments, classifying expertise.Comment: Draft of Chapter to appear in "An introduction to the scientific foundations of eye movement research and its applications

On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability