Bayesian Transfer Learning for the Prediction of Self-reported Well-being Scores

Predicting the severity and onset of depressive symptoms is of great importance. User-specific models have better performance than a general model but require significant amounts of training data from each individual, which is often impractical to obtain. Even when this is possible, there is a significant lag between the beginning of the data-collection phase and when the system is completely trained and thus able to start making useful predictions. In this study, we propose a transfer learning Bayesian modelling method based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and Bayesian model averaging for dealing with the challenge of building user-specific predictive models able to make predictions of self-reported well-being scores with limited sparse training data. The evaluation of our method using real-world data collected within the NEVERMIND project showed a better predictive performance for the transfer learning model compared to conventional learning with no transfer

Dropout Distillation for Efficiently Estimating Model Confidence

We propose an efficient way to output better calibrated uncertainty scores from neural networks. The Distilled Dropout Network (DDN) makes standard (non-Bayesian) neural networks more introspective by adding a new training loss which prevents them from being overconfident. Our method is more efficient than Bayesian neural networks or model ensembles which, despite providing more reliable uncertainty scores, are more cumbersome to train and slower to test. We evaluate DDN on the the task of image classification on the CIFAR-10 dataset and show that our calibration results are competitive even when compared to 100 Monte Carlo samples from a dropout network while they also increase the classification accuracy. We also propose better calibration within the state of the art Faster R-CNN object detection framework and show, using the COCO dataset, that DDN helps train better calibrated object detectors

Developing Children's Oral Health Assessment Toolkits Using Machine Learning Algorithm.

ObjectivesEvaluating children's oral health status and treatment needs is challenging. We aim to build oral health assessment toolkits to predict Children's Oral Health Status Index (COHSI) score and referral for treatment needs (RFTN) of oral health. Parent and Child toolkits consist of short-form survey items (12 for children and 8 for parents) with and without children's demographic information (7 questions) to predict the child's oral health status and need for treatment.MethodsData were collected from 12 dental practices in Los Angeles County from 2015 to 2016. We predicted COHSI score and RFTN using random Bootstrap samples with manually introduced Gaussian noise together with machine learning algorithms, such as Extreme Gradient Boosting and Naive Bayesian algorithms (using R). The toolkits predicted the probability of treatment needs and the COHSI score with percentile (ranking). The performance of the toolkits was evaluated internally and externally by residual mean square error (RMSE), correlation, sensitivity and specificity.ResultsThe toolkits were developed based on survey responses from 545 families with children aged 2 to 17 y. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting RFTN were 93% and 49% respectively with the external data. The correlation(s) between predicted and clinically determined COHSI was 0.88 (and 0.91 for its percentile). The RMSEs of the COHSI toolkit were 4.2 for COHSI (and 1.3 for its percentile).ConclusionsSurvey responses from children and their parents/guardians are predictive for clinical outcomes. The toolkits can be used by oral health programs at baseline among school populations. The toolkits can also be used to quantify differences between pre- and post-dental care program implementation. The toolkits' predicted oral health scores can be used to stratify samples in oral health research.Knowledge transfer statementThis study creates the oral health toolkits that combine self- and proxy- reported short forms with children's demographic characteristics to predict children's oral health and treatment needs using Machine Learning algorithms. The toolkits can be used by oral health programs at baseline among school populations to quantify differences between pre and post dental care program implementation. The toolkits can also be used to stratify samples according to the treatment needs and oral health status

Digging Deeper into Egocentric Gaze Prediction

This paper digs deeper into factors that influence egocentric gaze. Instead of training deep models for this purpose in a blind manner, we propose to inspect factors that contribute to gaze guidance during daily tasks. Bottom-up saliency and optical flow are assessed versus strong spatial prior baselines. Task-specific cues such as vanishing point, manipulation point, and hand regions are analyzed as representatives of top-down information. We also look into the contribution of these factors by investigating a simple recurrent neural model for ego-centric gaze prediction. First, deep features are extracted for all input video frames. Then, a gated recurrent unit is employed to integrate information over time and to predict the next fixation. We also propose an integrated model that combines the recurrent model with several top-down and bottom-up cues. Extensive experiments over multiple datasets reveal that (1) spatial biases are strong in egocentric videos, (2) bottom-up saliency models perform poorly in predicting gaze and underperform spatial biases, (3) deep features perform better compared to traditional features, (4) as opposed to hand regions, the manipulation point is a strong influential cue for gaze prediction, (5) combining the proposed recurrent model with bottom-up cues, vanishing points and, in particular, manipulation point results in the best gaze prediction accuracy over egocentric videos, (6) the knowledge transfer works best for cases where the tasks or sequences are similar, and (7) task and activity recognition can benefit from gaze prediction. Our findings suggest that (1) there should be more emphasis on hand-object interaction and (2) the egocentric vision community should consider larger datasets including diverse stimuli and more subjects.Comment: presented at WACV 201

Well-being Forecasting using a Parametric Transfer-Learning method based on the Fisher Divergence and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

INTRODUCTION: Traditional personalised modelling typically requires sufficient personal data for training. This is a challenge in healthcare contexts, e.g. when using smartphones to predict well-being. OBJECTIVE: A method to produce incremental patient-specific models and forecasts even in the early stages of data collection when the data are sporadic and limited. METHODS: We propose a parametric transfer-learning method based on the Fisher divergence, where information from other patients is injected as a prior term into a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo framework. We test our method on the NEVERMIND dataset of self-reported well-being scores. RESULTS: Out of 54 scenarios representing varying training/forecasting lengths and competing methods, our method achieved overall best performance in 50 (92.6%) and demonstrated a significant median difference in45 (83.3%). CONCLUSION: The method performs favourably overall, particularly when long-term forecasts are required given short-term data