Contemporary Affirmation of Machine Learning Models for Sensor Validation and Recommendations for Future research Directions

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are important and needed systems for the future as the notion "Internet of Things" has emerged lately. They're used for observation, tracking, or controlling of several uses in sector, health care, home, and military. Yet, the quality of info collected by sensor nodes is changed by anomalies that happen because of various grounds, including node failures, reading errors, unusual events, and malicious assaults. Thus, fault detection is a necessary procedure before it's used in making selections to make sure the quality of sensor information. A multitude of methods can be called multiple-changeable systems/agents. For example methods such as for example creating heating system, ventilation and air conditioner(HVAC) methods are changeable methods / agents . Multiple-changeable methods /agents such as for instance these commonly don't meet performance expectations imagined at design time. Such failings can be a result of a number of factors, for example difficulties due to improper installment, substandard maintenance, or products failure. These issues, or "faults," can comprise mechanical disappointments, management difficulties, design mistakes, and improper operator treatment

Situation recognition using soft computing techniques

Includes bibliographical references.The last decades have witnessed the emergence of a large number of devices pervasively launched into our daily lives as systems producing and collecting data from a variety of information sources to provide different services to different users via a variety of applications. These include infrastructure management, business process monitoring, crisis management and many other system-monitoring activities. Being processed in real-time, these information production/collection activities raise an interest for live performance monitoring, analysis and reporting, and call for data-mining methods in the recognition, prediction, reasoning and controlling of the performance of these systems by controlling changes in the system and/or deviations from normal operation. In recent years, soft computing methods and algorithms have been applied to data mining to identify patterns and provide new insight into data. This thesis revisits the issue of situation recognition for systems producing massive datasets by assessing the relevance of using soft computing techniques for finding hidden pattern in these systems

A holistic approach for measuring the survivability of SCADA systems

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are responsible for controlling and monitoring Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and Critical Infrastructure Systems (CIS) among others. Such systems are responsible to provide services our society relies on such as gas, electricity, and water distribution. They process our waste; manage our railways and our traffic. Nevertheless to say, they are vital for our society and any disruptions on such systems may produce from financial disasters to ultimately loss of lives. SCADA systems have evolved over the years, from standalone, proprietary solutions and closed networks into large-scale, highly distributed software systems operating over open networks such as the internet. In addition, the hardware and software utilised by SCADA systems is now, in most cases, based on COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) solutions. As they evolved they became vulnerable to malicious attacks. Over the last few years there is a push from the computer security industry on adapting their security tools and techniques to address the security issues of SCADA systems. Such move is welcome however is not sufficient, otherwise successful malicious attacks on computer systems would be non-existent. We strongly believe that rather than trying to stop and detect every attack on SCADA systems it is imperative to focus on providing critical services in the presence of malicious attacks. Such motivation is similar with the concepts of survivability, a discipline integrates areas of computer science such as performance, security, fault-tolerance and reliability. In this thesis we present a new concept of survivability; Holistic survivability is an analysis framework suitable for a new era of data-driven networked systems. It extends the current view of survivability by incorporating service interdependencies as a key property and aspects of machine learning. The framework uses the formalism of probabilistic graphical models to quantify survivability and introduces new metrics and heuristics to learn and identify essential services automatically. Current definitions of survivability are often limited since they either apply performance as measurement metric or use security metrics without any survivability context. Holistic survivability addresses such issues by providing a flexible framework where performance and security metrics can be tailored to the context of survivability. In other words, by applying performance and security our work aims to support key survivability properties such as recognition and resistance. The models and metrics here introduced are applied to SCADA systems as such systems insecurity is one of the motivations of this work. We believe that the proposed work goes beyond the current status of survivability models. Holistic survivability is flexible enough to support the addition of other metrics and can be easily used with different models. Because it is based on a well-known formalism its definition and implementation are easy to grasp and to apply. Perhaps more importantly, this proposed work is aimed to a new era where data is being produced and consumed on a large-scale. Holistic survivability aims to be the catalyst to new models based on data that will provide better and more accurate insights on the survivability of systems

Analysis of Bulk Power System Resilience Using Vulnerability Graph

Critical infrastructure such as a Bulk Power System (BPS) should have some quantifiable measure of resiliency and definite rule-sets to achieve a certain resilience value. Industrial Control System (ICS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks are integral parts of BPS. BPS or ICS are themselves not vulnerable because of their proprietary technology, but when the control network and the corporate network need to have communications for performance measurements and reporting, the ICS or BPS become vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Thus, a systematic way of quantifying resiliency and identifying crucial nodes in the network is critical for addressing the cyber resiliency measurement process. This can help security analysts and power system operators in the decision-making process. This thesis focuses on the resilience analysis of BPS and proposes a ranking algorithm to identify critical nodes in the network. Although there are some ranking algorithms already in place, but they lack comprehensive inclusion of the factors that are critical in the cyber domain. This thesis has analyzed a range of factors which are critical from the point of view of cyber-attacks and come up with a MADM (Multi-Attribute Decision Making) based ranking method. The node ranking process will not only help improve the resilience but also facilitate hardening the network from vulnerabilities and threats. The proposed method is called MVNRank which stands for Multiple Vulnerability Node Rank. MVNRank algorithm takes into account the asset value of the hosts, the exploitability and impact scores of vulnerabilities as quantified by CVSS (Common Vulnerability Scoring System). It also considers the total number of vulnerabilities and severity level of each vulnerability, degree centrality of the nodes in vulnerability graph and the attacker’s distance from the target node. We are using a multi-layered directed acyclic graph (DAG) model and ranking the critical nodes in the corporate and control network which falls in the paths to the target ICS. We don\u27t rank the ICS nodes but use them to calculate the potential power loss capability of the control center nodes using the assumed ICS connectivity to BPS. Unlike most of the works, we have considered multiple vulnerabilities for each node in the network while generating the rank by using a weighted average method. The resilience computation is highly time consuming as it considers all the possible attack paths from the source to the target node which increases in a multiplicative manner based on the number of nodes and vulnerabilities. Thus, one of the goals of this thesis is to reduce the simulation time to compute resilience which is achieved as illustrated in the simulation results

Behavior Analysis and Modeling of Stakeholders in Integrated Water Resource Management with a Focus on Irrigated Agriculture

The scarcity of freshwater resources in the Sultanate of Oman, makes it essential that both surface and groundwater resources are carefully managed. Introducing new water demand management tools is important, especially for the coastal agricultural areas (e. g. Al Batinah coastal region) which are affected by sea water intrusion. Based on a social survey performed during this work, the existing situation generates conflicts between different stakeholders (SHs) which have different interests regarding water availability, sustainable aquifer management, and profitable agricultural production. The current aim is to evaluate the implementation potential of several management interventions and their combinations by analysing opinions and responses of the relevant stakeholders in the region. Influencing the behavior and drivers affecting farmers’ decision-making manner, can be a valuable tool to improve water demand management. The work also introduces the use of a participatory process within the frame of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) to support decision makers in taking better informed decisions. Data were collected by questionnaires from different groups of stakeholders. These data were analysed statistically for each group separately as well as relations amongst groups by using the SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Science) software package. Differences were examined between opinions of farmers and decision makers (DM’s) regarding potential interventions. Farmers’ frequency curves showed differences in opinions in some interventions, while differences in opinions were not so high within the group of DM’s. Therefore, Cross Tabulation and Discriminant Analysis (DA) were performed to identify the drivers influencing farmers’ opinions regarding the intervention measures. As an advanced step, a Bayesian Networks (BNs) approach is used for mapping stakeholders’ behaviors and to show the strength of a relationship between dependent and predictor variables. By using BNs it is possible to analyse future scenarios for implementation and acceptance of interventions

Reliability Analysis of Electric Power Systems Considering Cyber Security

The new generation of the electric power system is the modern smart grid which is essentially a cyber and physical system (CPS). Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)/energy management system (EMS) is the key component of CPS, which is becoming the main target of both external and insider cyberattacks. Cybersecurity of the SCADA/EMS system is facing big challenges and influences the reliability of the electric power system. Characteristics of cyber threats will impact the system reliability. System reliability can be influenced by various cyber threats with different attack skill levels and attack paths. Additionally, the change of structure of the target system may also result in the change of the system reliability. However, very limited research is related to the reliability analysis of the electric power system considering cybersecurity issue. A large amount of mathematical methods can be used to quantify the cyber threats and simulation processes can be applied to build the reliability analysis model. For instance, to analyze the vulnerabilities of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system, Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be used to model the attack paths of cyberattacks on the exploited vulnerabilities. The mean time-to-compromise (MTTC) and mean time-to-failure (MTTF) based on the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) can be applied to characterize the properties of cyberattacks. What’s more, simulation approaches like non-sequential or sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is able to simulate the system reliability analysis and calculate the reliability indexes. In this thesis, reliability of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system considering different cybersecurity issues is analyzed. The Bayesian attack path models of cyberattacks on the SCADA/EMS components are built by Bayesian Networks (BNs), and cyberattacks are quantified by its mean time-to-compromise (MTTC) by applying a modified Semi-Markov Process (SMP) and MTTC models. Based on the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) 96, the system reliability is analyzed by calculating the electric power system reliability indexes like LOLP and EENS through MCS. What’s more, cyberattacks with different lurking strategies are considered and analyzed. According to the simulation results, it shows that the system reliability of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system considering cyber security is closely related to the MTTC of cyberattacks, which is influenced by the attack paths, attacking skill levels, and the complexity of the target structure. With the increase of the MTTC values of cyberattacks, LOLP values decrease, which means that the reliability of the system is better, and the system is safer. In addition, with the difficulty level of lurking strategies of cyberattacks getting higher and higher, though the LOLP values of scenarios don’t increase a lot, the EENS values of the corresponding scenarios increase dramatically, which indicates that the system reliability is more unpredictable, and the cyber security is worse. Finally, insider attacks are discussed and corresponding LOLP values and EENS values considering lurking behavior are estimated and compared. Both LOLP and EENS values dramatically increase owing to the insider attacks that result in the lower MTTCs. This indicates that insider attacks can lead to worse impact on system reliability than external cyber attacks. The results of this thesis may contribute to the establishment of perfect countermeasures against with cyber attacks on the electric power system