A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey

MEBN-RM: A Mapping between Multi-Entity Bayesian Network and Relational Model

Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) is a knowledge representation formalism combining Bayesian Networks (BN) with First-Order Logic (FOL). MEBN has sufficient expressive power for general-purpose knowledge representation and reasoning. Developing a MEBN model to support a given application is a challenge, requiring definition of entities, relationships, random variables, conditional dependence relationships, and probability distributions. When available, data can be invaluable both to improve performance and to streamline development. By far the most common format for available data is the relational database (RDB). Relational databases describe and organize data according to the Relational Model (RM). Developing a MEBN model from data stored in an RDB therefore requires mapping between the two formalisms. This paper presents MEBN-RM, a set of mapping rules between key elements of MEBN and RM. We identify links between the two languages (RM and MEBN) and define four levels of mapping from elements of RM to elements of MEBN. These definitions are implemented in the MEBN-RM algorithm, which converts a relational schema in RM to a partial MEBN model. Through this research, the software has been released as a MEBN-RM open-source software tool. The method is illustrated through two example use cases using MEBN-RM to develop MEBN models: a Critical Infrastructure Defense System and a Smart Manufacturing System

Computing Multi-Relational Sufficient Statistics for Large Databases

Databases contain information about which relationships do and do not hold among entities. To make this information accessible for statistical analysis requires computing sufficient statistics that combine information from different database tables. Such statistics may involve any number of {\em positive and negative} relationships. With a naive enumeration approach, computing sufficient statistics for negative relationships is feasible only for small databases. We solve this problem with a new dynamic programming algorithm that performs a virtual join, where the requisite counts are computed without materializing join tables. Contingency table algebra is a new extension of relational algebra, that facilitates the efficient implementation of this M\"obius virtual join operation. The M\"obius Join scales to large datasets (over 1M tuples) with complex schemas. Empirical evaluation with seven benchmark datasets showed that information about the presence and absence of links can be exploited in feature selection, association rule mining, and Bayesian network learning.Comment: 11pages, 8 figures, 8 tables, CIKM'14,November 3--7, 2014, Shanghai, Chin

Applying Cognitive Principles of Similarity to Data Integration – The Case of SIAM

Increasingly, modern system design is concerned with the integration of legacy systems and data. Consequently, data integration is an important step in many system design projects and also a prerequisite to data warehousing, data mining, and analytics. The central step in data integration is the identification of similar elements in multiple data sources. In this paper, we describe an application of principles of similarity based in cognitive psychology, specifically the theory of Similarity as Interactive Activation and Mapping (SIAM) to the problem of database schema matching. In a field that has been dominated by a multitude of ad-hoc algorithms, cognitive principles can establish an appropriate theoretical basis. The results of this paper show initial success in matching applications and point towards future research

Just below the surface: developing knowledge management systems using the paradigm of the noetic prism

In this paper we examine how the principles embodied in the paradigm of the noetic prism can illuminate the construction of knowledge management systems. We draw on the formalism of the prism to examine three successful tools: frames, spreadsheets and databases, and show how their power and also their shortcomings arise from their domain representation, and how any organisational system based on integration of these tools and conversion between them is inevitably lossy. We suggest how a late-binding, hybrid knowledge based management system (KBMS) could be designed that draws on the lessons learnt from these tools, by maintaining noetica at an atomic level and storing the combinatory processes necessary to create higher level structure as the need arises. We outline the “just-below-the-surface” systems design, and describe its implementation in an enterprise-wide knowledge-based system that has all of the conventional office automation features

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Simple identification tools in FishBase

Simple identification tools for fish species were included in the FishBase information system from its inception. Early tools made use of the relational model and characters like fin ray meristics. Soon pictures and drawings were added as a further help, similar to a field guide. Later came the computerization of existing dichotomous keys, again in combination with pictures and other information, and the ability to restrict possible species by country, area, or taxonomic group. Today, www.FishBase.org offers four different ways to identify species. This paper describes these tools with their advantages and disadvantages, and suggests various options for further development. It explores the possibility of a holistic and integrated computeraided strategy