A unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and forecasting of mortality under a unified framework. Furthermore, we propose an alternative class of model identification constraints which is more suited to statistical inference in filtering and parameter estimation settings based on maximization of the marginalized likelihood or in Bayesian inference. We then develop a novel class of Bayesian state-space models which incorporate apriori beliefs about the mortality model characteristics as well as for more flexible and appropriate assumptions relating to heteroscedasticity that present in observed mortality data. We show that multiple period and cohort effect can be cast under a state-space structure. To study long term mortality dynamics, we introduce stochastic volatility to the period effect. The estimation of the resulting stochastic volatility model of mortality is performed using a recent class of Monte Carlo procedure specifically designed for state and parameter estimation in Bayesian state-space models, known as the class of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the framework we have developed using Danish male mortality data, and show that incorporating heteroscedasticity and stochastic volatility markedly improves model fit despite an increase of model complexity. Forecasting properties of the enhanced models are examined with long term and short term calibration periods on the reconstruction of life tables.Comment: 46 page

Multiple imputation for continuous variables using a Bayesian principal component analysis

We propose a multiple imputation method based on principal component analysis (PCA) to deal with incomplete continuous data. To reflect the uncertainty of the parameters from one imputation to the next, we use a Bayesian treatment of the PCA model. Using a simulation study and real data sets, the method is compared to two classical approaches: multiple imputation based on joint modelling and on fully conditional modelling. Contrary to the others, the proposed method can be easily used on data sets where the number of individuals is less than the number of variables and when the variables are highly correlated. In addition, it provides unbiased point estimates of quantities of interest, such as an expectation, a regression coefficient or a correlation coefficient, with a smaller mean squared error. Furthermore, the widths of the confidence intervals built for the quantities of interest are often smaller whilst ensuring a valid coverage.Comment: 16 page

Machine Learning Aided Static Malware Analysis: A Survey and Tutorial

Malware analysis and detection techniques have been evolving during the last decade as a reflection to development of different malware techniques to evade network-based and host-based security protections. The fast growth in variety and number of malware species made it very difficult for forensics investigators to provide an on time response. Therefore, Machine Learning (ML) aided malware analysis became a necessity to automate different aspects of static and dynamic malware investigation. We believe that machine learning aided static analysis can be used as a methodological approach in technical Cyber Threats Intelligence (CTI) rather than resource-consuming dynamic malware analysis that has been thoroughly studied before. In this paper, we address this research gap by conducting an in-depth survey of different machine learning methods for classification of static characteristics of 32-bit malicious Portable Executable (PE32) Windows files and develop taxonomy for better understanding of these techniques. Afterwards, we offer a tutorial on how different machine learning techniques can be utilized in extraction and analysis of a variety of static characteristic of PE binaries and evaluate accuracy and practical generalization of these techniques. Finally, the results of experimental study of all the method using common data was given to demonstrate the accuracy and complexity. This paper may serve as a stepping stone for future researchers in cross-disciplinary field of machine learning aided malware forensics.Comment: 37 Page

Don't Believe Everything You Hear : Preserving Relevant Information by Discarding Social Information

Integrating information gained by observing others via Social Bayesian Learning can be beneficial for an agent’s performance, but can also enable population wide information cascades that perpetuate false beliefs through the agent population. We show how agents can influence the observation network by changing their probability of observing others, and demonstrate the existence of a population-wide equilibrium, where the advantages and disadvantages of the Social Bayesian update are balanced. We also use the formalism of relevant information to illustrate how negative information cascades are characterized by processing increasing amounts of non-relevant informatio