980 research outputs found
Convergence Rates of Gaussian ODE Filters
A recently-introduced class of probabilistic (uncertainty-aware) solvers for
ordinary differential equations (ODEs) applies Gaussian (Kalman) filtering to
initial value problems. These methods model the true solution and its first
derivatives \emph{a priori} as a Gauss--Markov process ,
which is then iteratively conditioned on information about . This
article establishes worst-case local convergence rates of order for a
wide range of versions of this Gaussian ODE filter, as well as global
convergence rates of order in the case of and an integrated Brownian
motion prior, and analyses how inaccurate information on coming from
approximate evaluations of affects these rates. Moreover, we show that, in
the globally convergent case, the posterior credible intervals are well
calibrated in the sense that they globally contract at the same rate as the
truncation error. We illustrate these theoretical results by numerical
experiments which might indicate their generalizability to .Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure
Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary
differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like
most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of
probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process
defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior
work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of
the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties.
Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are
chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure
of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from
a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational
cost, and raise new research questions.Comment: 18 pages (9 page conference paper, plus supplements); appears in
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 201
The adaptive patched cubature filter and its implementation
There are numerous contexts where one wishes to describe the state of a
randomly evolving system. Effective solutions combine models that quantify the
underlying uncertainty with available observational data to form scientifically
reasonable estimates for the uncertainty in the system state. Stochastic
differential equations are often used to mathematically model the underlying
system.
The Kusuoka-Lyons-Victoir (KLV) approach is a higher order particle method
for approximating the weak solution of a stochastic differential equation that
uses a weighted set of scenarios to approximate the evolving probability
distribution to a high order of accuracy. The algorithm can be performed by
integrating along a number of carefully selected bounded variation paths. The
iterated application of the KLV method has a tendency for the number of
particles to increase. This can be addressed and, together with local dynamic
recombination, which simplifies the support of discrete measure without harming
the accuracy of the approximation, the KLV method becomes eligible to solve the
filtering problem in contexts where one desires to maintain an accurate
description of the ever-evolving conditioned measure.
In addition to the alternate application of the KLV method and recombination,
we make use of the smooth nature of the likelihood function and high order
accuracy of the approximations to lead some of the particles immediately to the
next observation time and to build into the algorithm a form of automatic high
order adaptive importance sampling.Comment: to appear in Communications in Mathematical Sciences. arXiv admin
note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1311.675
- …