24,999 research outputs found

    Bayesian Estimation for Continuous-Time Sparse Stochastic Processes

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    We consider continuous-time sparse stochastic processes from which we have only a finite number of noisy/noiseless samples. Our goal is to estimate the noiseless samples (denoising) and the signal in-between (interpolation problem). By relying on tools from the theory of splines, we derive the joint a priori distribution of the samples and show how this probability density function can be factorized. The factorization enables us to tractably implement the maximum a posteriori and minimum mean-square error (MMSE) criteria as two statistical approaches for estimating the unknowns. We compare the derived statistical methods with well-known techniques for the recovery of sparse signals, such as the â„“1\ell_1 norm and Log (â„“1\ell_1-â„“0\ell_0 relaxation) regularization methods. The simulation results show that, under certain conditions, the performance of the regularization techniques can be very close to that of the MMSE estimator.Comment: To appear in IEEE TS

    Locally adaptive factor processes for multivariate time series

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    In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to mis-calibration of predictive intervals, which can be substantially too narrow or wide depending on the time. We propose a locally adaptive factor process for characterizing multivariate mean-covariance changes in continuous time, allowing locally varying smoothness in both the mean and covariance matrix. This process is constructed utilizing latent dictionary functions evolving in time through nested Gaussian processes and linearly related to the observed data with a sparse mapping. Using a differential equation representation, we bypass usual computational bottlenecks in obtaining MCMC and online algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. The performance is assessed in simulations and illustrated in a financial application

    Stochastic expansions using continuous dictionaries: L\'{e}vy adaptive regression kernels

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    This article describes a new class of prior distributions for nonparametric function estimation. The unknown function is modeled as a limit of weighted sums of kernels or generator functions indexed by continuous parameters that control local and global features such as their translation, dilation, modulation and shape. L\'{e}vy random fields and their stochastic integrals are employed to induce prior distributions for the unknown functions or, equivalently, for the number of kernels and for the parameters governing their features. Scaling, shape, and other features of the generating functions are location-specific to allow quite different function properties in different parts of the space, as with wavelet bases and other methods employing overcomplete dictionaries. We provide conditions under which the stochastic expansions converge in specified Besov or Sobolev norms. Under a Gaussian error model, this may be viewed as a sparse regression problem, with regularization induced via the L\'{e}vy random field prior distribution. Posterior inference for the unknown functions is based on a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We compare the L\'{e}vy Adaptive Regression Kernel (LARK) method to wavelet-based methods using some of the standard test functions, and illustrate its flexibility and adaptability in nonstationary applications.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS889 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

    Batch Nonlinear Continuous-Time Trajectory Estimation as Exactly Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

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    In this paper, we revisit batch state estimation through the lens of Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider continuous-discrete estimation problems wherein a trajectory is viewed as a one-dimensional GP, with time as the independent variable. Our continuous-time prior can be defined by any nonlinear, time-varying stochastic differential equation driven by white noise; this allows the possibility of smoothing our trajectory estimates using a variety of vehicle dynamics models (e.g., `constant-velocity'). We show that this class of prior results in an inverse kernel matrix (i.e., covariance matrix between all pairs of measurement times) that is exactly sparse (block-tridiagonal) and that this can be exploited to carry out GP regression (and interpolation) very efficiently. When the prior is based on a linear, time-varying stochastic differential equation and the measurement model is also linear, this GP approach is equivalent to classical, discrete-time smoothing (at the measurement times); when a nonlinearity is present, we iterate over the whole trajectory to maximize accuracy. We test the approach experimentally on a simultaneous trajectory estimation and mapping problem using a mobile robot dataset.Comment: Submitted to Autonomous Robots on 20 November 2014, manuscript # AURO-D-14-00185, 16 pages, 7 figure

    Efficient Transition Probability Computation for Continuous-Time Branching Processes via Compressed Sensing

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    Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the discrete state space is large or uncountable. Classical methods such as matrix exponentiation are infeasible for large or countably infinite state spaces, and sampling-based alternatives are computationally intensive, requiring a large integration step to impute over all possible hidden events. Recent work has successfully applied generating function techniques to computing transition probabilities for linear multitype branching processes. While these techniques often require significantly fewer computations than matrix exponentiation, they also become prohibitive in applications with large populations. We propose a compressed sensing framework that significantly accelerates the generating function method, decreasing computational cost up to a logarithmic factor by only assuming the probability mass of transitions is sparse. We demonstrate accurate and efficient transition probability computations in branching process models for hematopoiesis and transposable element evolution.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

    Bayesian Inference of Log Determinants

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    The log-determinant of a kernel matrix appears in a variety of machine learning problems, ranging from determinantal point processes and generalized Markov random fields, through to the training of Gaussian processes. Exact calculation of this term is often intractable when the size of the kernel matrix exceeds a few thousand. In the spirit of probabilistic numerics, we reinterpret the problem of computing the log-determinant as a Bayesian inference problem. In particular, we combine prior knowledge in the form of bounds from matrix theory and evidence derived from stochastic trace estimation to obtain probabilistic estimates for the log-determinant and its associated uncertainty within a given computational budget. Beyond its novelty and theoretic appeal, the performance of our proposal is competitive with state-of-the-art approaches to approximating the log-determinant, while also quantifying the uncertainty due to budget-constrained evidence.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure
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