Bayesian System ID: Optimal management of parameter, model, and measurement uncertainty

We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning problem to several commonly used least squares-based optimization objectives used in system ID. Our comparisons indicate that the log posterior has improved geometric properties compared with the objective function surfaces of traditional methods that include differentially constrained least squares and least squares reconstructions of discrete time steppers like dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). These properties allow it to be both more sensitive to new data and less affected by multiple minima --- overall yielding a more robust approach. Our theoretical results indicate that least squares and regularized least squares methods like dynamic mode decomposition and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) can be derived from the probabilistic formulation by assuming noiseless measurements. We also analyze the computational complexity of a Gaussian filter-based approximate marginal Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme that we use to obtain the Bayesian posterior for both linear and nonlinear problems. We then empirically demonstrate that obtaining the marginal posterior of the parameter dynamics and making predictions by extracting optimal estimators (e.g., mean, median, mode) yields orders of magnitude improvement over the aforementioned approaches. We attribute this performance to the fact that the Bayesian approach captures parameter, model, and measurement uncertainties, whereas the other methods typically neglect at least one type of uncertainty

Dynamic mode decomposition in vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for extracting dynamical structure among observables

Understanding nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDSs) is challenging in a variety of engineering and scientific fields. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is a numerical algorithm for the spectral analysis of Koopman operators, has been attracting attention as a way of obtaining global modal descriptions of NLDSs without requiring explicit prior knowledge. However, since existing DMD algorithms are in principle formulated based on the concatenation of scalar observables, it is not directly applicable to data with dependent structures among observables, which take, for example, the form of a sequence of graphs. In this paper, we formulate Koopman spectral analysis for NLDSs with structures among observables and propose an estimation algorithm for this problem. This method can extract and visualize the underlying low-dimensional global dynamics of NLDSs with structures among observables from data, which can be useful in understanding the underlying dynamics of such NLDSs. To this end, we first formulate the problem of estimating spectra of the Koopman operator defined in vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, and then develop an estimation procedure for this problem by reformulating tensor-based DMD. As a special case of our method, we propose the method named as Graph DMD, which is a numerical algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis of graph dynamical systems, using a sequence of adjacency matrices. We investigate the empirical performance of our method by using synthetic and real-world data.Comment: 34 pages with 4 figures, Published in Neural Networks, 201

Using Bayesian Programming for Multisensor Multi-Target Tracking in Automative Applications

A prerequisite to the design of future Advanced Driver Assistance Systems for cars is a sensing system providing all the information required for high-level driving assistance tasks. Carsense is a European project whose purpose is to develop such a new sensing system. It will combine different sensors (laser, radar and video) and will rely on the fusion of the information coming from these sensors in order to achieve better accuracy, robustness and an increase of the information content. This paper demonstrates the interest of using probabilistic reasoning techniques to address this challenging multi-sensor data fusion problem. The approach used is called Bayesian Programming. It is a general approach based on an implementation of the Bayesian theory. It was introduced rst to design robot control programs but its scope of application is much broader and it can be used whenever one has to deal with problems involving uncertain or incomplete knowledge