465 research outputs found
Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies
Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people.
While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school
closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and
efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based
epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining
the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are
computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal
strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as
epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget
needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling
technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed
budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling
theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using
Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling
and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting
and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only
a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to
the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological
decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a
statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the
confidence of an arm recommendation
On the Complexity of Differentially Private Best-Arm Identification with Fixed Confidence
Best Arm Identification (BAI) problems are progressively used for
data-sensitive applications, such as designing adaptive clinical trials, tuning
hyper-parameters, and conducting user studies to name a few. Motivated by the
data privacy concerns invoked by these applications, we study the problem of
BAI with fixed confidence under -global Differential Privacy (DP).
First, to quantify the cost of privacy, we derive a lower bound on the sample
complexity of any -correct BAI algorithm satisfying -global
DP. Our lower bound suggests the existence of two privacy regimes depending on
the privacy budget . In the high-privacy regime (small ),
the hardness depends on a coupled effect of privacy and a novel
information-theoretic quantity, called the Total Variation Characteristic Time.
In the low-privacy regime (large ), the sample complexity lower bound
reduces to the classical non-private lower bound. Second, we propose AdaP-TT,
an -global DP variant of the Top Two algorithm. AdaP-TT runs in
arm-dependent adaptive episodes and adds Laplace noise to ensure a good
privacy-utility trade-off. We derive an asymptotic upper bound on the sample
complexity of AdaP-TT that matches with the lower bound up to multiplicative
constants in the high-privacy regime. Finally, we provide an experimental
analysis of AdaP-TT that validates our theoretical results
Experimenting with sequential allocation procedures
In experiments that consider the use of subjects, a crucial part is deciding which treatment to allocate to which subject – in other words, constructing the treatment allocation procedure. In a classical experiment, this treatment allocation procedure often simply constitutes randomly assigning subjects to a number of different treatments. Subsequently, when all outcomes have been observed, the resulting data is used to conduct an analysis that is specified a priori. Practically, however, the subjects often arrive at an experiment one-by-one. This allows the data generating process to be viewed differently: instead of considering the subjects in a batch, intermediate data from previous interactions with other subjects can be used to influence the decisions of the treatment allocation in future interactions. A heavily researched formalization that helps developing strategies for sequentially allocating subjects is the multi-armed bandit problem. In this thesis, several methods are developed to expedite the use of sequential allocation procedures by (social) scientists in field experiments. This is done by building upon the extensive literature of the multi-armed bandit problem. The thesis also introduces and shows many (empirical) examples of the usefulness and applicability of sequential allocation procedures in practice
Coronaviruses Research in BRICS Countries
SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 105 million people worldwide. During this pandemic, researchers and clinicians have been working to understand the molecular mechanisms that underpin viral pathogenesis by studying viral–host interactions. Now, with the global rollout of various COVID-19 vaccines—based on the neutralization of the spike protein using different technologies—viral immunology and cell-based immunity are being investigated. Researchers are also studying how various SARS-CoV-2 genetic mutations will impact the efficacy of these COVID-19 vaccines. At the same time, various antiviral drugs have been identified or repurposed that have potential as anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatments. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is the acronym used to associate five major emerging national economies. The BRICS countries are known for their significant influence on regional affairs, including being leaders in scientific and clinical research and innovation. This Special Issue includes researchers from BRICS countries, in particular South Africa, involved in the study of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Original articles, as well as new perspectives or reviews on the matter, were welcomed. Research in the fields of vaccine studies, pathogenesis, genetic mutations, viral immunology, and antiviral drugs were especially encouraged
Correlation of influenza infection with glycan array
Poster Presentation: SPB1 / SPB2 - Virus Host Interaction/Pathogensis/Transmission: abstract no. B109PINTRODUCTION: The past 6 years has seen the introduction of glycan arrays containing large numbers of sialic acid (Sia) containing compounds and these arrays have been used to demonstrate the relative binding affinity of influenza viruses to different glycans. Though infor...postprin
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