Power-enhanced multiple decision functions controlling family-wise error and false discovery rates

Improved procedures, in terms of smaller missed discovery rates (MDR), for performing multiple hypotheses testing with weak and strong control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) are developed and studied. The improvement over existing procedures such as the \v{S}id\'ak procedure for FWER control and the Benjamini--Hochberg (BH) procedure for FDR control is achieved by exploiting possible differences in the powers of the individual tests. Results signal the need to take into account the powers of the individual tests and to have multiple hypotheses decision functions which are not limited to simply using the individual $p$-values, as is the case, for example, with the \v{S}id\'ak, Bonferroni, or BH procedures. They also enhance understanding of the role of the powers of individual tests, or more precisely the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) functions of decision processes, in the search for better multiple hypotheses testing procedures. A decision-theoretic framework is utilized, and through auxiliary randomizers the procedures could be used with discrete or mixed-type data or with rank-based nonparametric tests. This is in contrast to existing $p$-value based procedures whose theoretical validity is contingent on each of these $p$-value statistics being stochastically equal to or greater than a standard uniform variable under the null hypothesis. Proposed procedures are relevant in the analysis of high-dimensional "large $M$, small $n$" data sets arising in the natural, physical, medical, economic and social sciences, whose generation and creation is accelerated by advances in high-throughput technology, notably, but not limited to, microarray technology.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOS844 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Asymptotically optimal sequential design for rank aggregation

A sequential design problem for rank aggregation is commonly encountered in psychology, politics, marketing, sports, etc. In this problem, a decision maker is responsible for ranking K items by sequentially collecting noisy pairwise comparisons from judges. The decision maker needs to choose a pair of items for comparison in each step, decide when to stop data collection, and make a final decision after stopping based on a sequential flow of information. Because of the complex ranking structure, existing sequential analysis methods are not suitable. In this paper, we formulate the problem under a Bayesian decision framework and propose sequential procedures that are asymptotically optimal. These procedures achieve asymptotic optimality by seeking a balance between exploration (i.e., finding the most indistinguishable pair of items) and exploitation (i.e., comparing the most indistinguishable pair based on the current information). New analytical tools are developed for proving the asymptotic results, combining advanced change of measure techniques for handling the level crossing of likelihood ratios and classic large deviation results for martingales, which are of separate theoretical interest in solving complex sequential design problems. A mirror-descent algorithm is developed for the computation of the proposed sequential procedures