AN INVESTIGATION INTO AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK DESIGN

Many telephone companies, especially in Eastern-Europe and the 'third world', are developing new telephone networks. In such situations the network design engineer needs computer based tools that not only supplement his own knowledge but also help him to cope with situations where not all the information necessary for the design is available. Often traditional network design tools are somewhat removed from the practical world for which they were developed. They often ignore the significant uncertain and statistical nature of the input data. They use data taken from a fixed point in time to solve a time variable problem, and the cost formulae tend to be on an average per line or port rather than the specific case. Indeed, data is often not available or just plainly unreliable. The engineer has to rely on rules of thumb honed over many years of experience in designing networks and be able to cope with missing data. The complexity of telecommunication networks and the rarity of specialists in this area often makes the network design process very difficult for a company. It is therefore an important area for the application of expert systems. Designs resulting from the use of expert systems will have a measure of uncertainty in their solution and adequate account must be made of the risk involved in implementing its design recommendations. The thesis reviews the status of expert systems as used for telecommunication network design. It further shows that such an expert system needs to reduce a large network problem into its component parts, use different modules to solve them and then combine these results to create a total solution. It shows how the various sub-division problems are integrated to solve the general network design problem. This thesis further presents details of such an expert system and the databases necessary for network design: three new algorithms are invented for traffic analysis, node locations and network design and these produce results that have close correlation with designs taken from BT Consultancy archives. It was initially supposed that an efficient combination of existing techniques for dealing with uncertainty within expert systems would suffice for the basis of the new system. It soon became apparent, however, that to allow for the differing attributes of facts, rules and data and the varying degrees of importance or rank within each area, a new and radically different method would be needed. Having investigated the existing uncertainty problem it is believed that a new more rational method has been found. The work has involved the invention of the 'Uncertainty Window' technique and its testing on various aspects of network design, including demand forecast, network dimensioning, node and link system sizing, etc. using a selection of networks that have been designed by BT Consultancy staff. From the results of the analysis, modifications to the technique have been incorporated with the aim of optimising the heuristics and procedures, so that the structure gives an accurate solution as early as possible. The essence of the process is one of associating the uncertainty windows with their relevant rules, data and facts, which results in providing the network designer with an insight into the uncertainties that have helped produce the overall system design: it indicates which sources of uncertainty and which assumptions are were critical for further investigation to improve upon the confidence of the overall design. The windowing technique works by virtue of its ability to retain the composition of the uncertainty and its associated values, assumption, etc. and allows for better solutions to be attained.BRITISH TELECOMMUNICATIONS PL

A New Conceptual and Operational Framework for the Switching of IT Outsourcing Providers

The switching of information technology (IT) providers is a subject of considerable significance, since the IT outsourcing (ITO) market is still growing and ITO deals are regularly reaching the end of their contract period, whilst other ITO contracts are prematurely discontinued. The transitional phase to a new provider is a highly complex, resource intensive and critical phase of strategic importance. The objective of this phase is that the contract with the new provider is implemented and the incumbent provider is replaced. Existing literature suggests that an unsuccessful transition can endanger the business continuity of the ITO client. Yet, to date, no research has holistically focused on how successful ITO transitions can be performed. This research seeks to contribute to the understanding and knowledge of which factors support the successful transition of ITO providers for the switching client. It does so by identifying critical success factors, secondary success factors, key risks, and then develops a conceptual framework and a practical operational guide. This qualitative research is conducted within a constructivist paradigm. Twenty-one practitioners from seven different organisations were interviewed. The interviewed practitioners represent three different groups - IT outsourcing client (8), incumbent provider (6) and new provider (7). The focus is on complex ITO deals, where ‘complex’ is considered to comprise large ITO deals with total contract value of more than €100 million, and where at least two IT services have been outsourced and need to be switched. All interviews were transcribed and the data analysis was conducted based on a modified grounded theory approach and the NVivo software tool facilitated the coding process. The results of the analysis and the development of the conceptual and operational framework were subject to validation procedures and verification strategies, such as member checking. The thesis provides a comprehensive critical review of the literature on switching ITO providers and related relevant literature on IT outsourcing to act as the basis of this research. This is refined and augmented through the empirical work to present a final holistic framework that details the success factors and risks involved. This framework provides a holistic view of the management capabilities and business activities that are necessary to ensure a successful switching of ITO providers. For each management capability or business activity a RACI table is provided, which outlines key tasks and responsibilities. Collectively, the new conceptual framework and associated analysis and materials will provide a significant contribution to both literature and practice in the ITO field

The economics of catfish farming in central Thailand

A survey of 41 catfish farms was undertaken to ascertain why production has been falling since 1974. The major factors influencing production were found, and guidelines for increased profitability provided.Fish culture, Aquaculture economics, Marketing, Aquaculture economics, Catfish culture, Thailand, Clarias batrachus

The Material Theory of Induction

The fundamental burden of a theory of inductive inference is to determine which are the good inductive inferences or relations of inductive support and why it is that they are so. The traditional approach is modeled on that taken in accounts of deductive inference. It seeks universally applicable schemas or rules or a single formal device, such as the probability calculus. After millennia of halting efforts, none of these approaches has been unequivocally successful and debates between approaches persist. The Material Theory of Induction identifies the source of these enduring problems in the assumption taken at the outset: that inductive inference can be accommodated by a single formal account with universal applicability. Instead, it argues that that there is no single, universally applicable formal account. Rather, each domain has an inductive logic native to it.The content of that logic and where it can be applied are determined by the facts prevailing in that domain. Paying close attention to how inductive inference is conducted in science and copiously illustrated with real-world examples, The Material Theory of Induction will initiate a new tradition in the analysis of inductive inference

Primordial Nucleosynthesis: from precision cosmology to fundamental physics

We present an up-to-date review of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN). We discuss the main improvements which have been achieved in the past two decades on the overall theoretical framework, summarize the impact of new experimental results on nuclear reaction rates, and critically re-examine the astrophysical determinations of light nuclei abundances. We report then on how BBN can be used as a powerful test of new physics, constraining a wide range of ideas and theoretical models of fundamental interactions beyond the standard model of strong and electroweak forces and Einstein's general relativity.Comment: 148 pages, 66 figures, revised version accepted by Physics Report

A vision-based optical character recognition system for real-time identification of tractors in a port container terminal

Automation has been seen as a promising solution to increase the productivity of modern sea port container terminals. The potential of increase in throughput, work efficiency and reduction of labor cost have lured stick holders to strive for the introduction of automation in the overall terminal operation. A specific container handling process that is readily amenable to automation is the deployment and control of gantry cranes in the container yard of a container terminal where typical operations of truck identification, loading and unloading containers, and job management are primarily performed manually in a typical terminal. To facilitate the overall automation of the gantry crane operation, we devised an approach for the real-time identification of tractors through the recognition of the corresponding number plates that are located on top of the tractor cabin. With this crucial piece of information, remote or automated yard operations can then be performed. A machine vision-based system is introduced whereby these number plates are read and identified in real-time while the tractors are operating in the terminal. In this paper, we present the design and implementation of the system and highlight the major difficulties encountered including the recognition of character information printed on the number plates due to poor image integrity. Working solutions are proposed to address these problems which are incorporated in the overall identification system.postprin

Quantum Computing

Quantum mechanics---the theory describing the fundamental workings of nature---is famously counterintuitive: it predicts that a particle can be in two places at the same time, and that two remote particles can be inextricably and instantaneously linked. These predictions have been the topic of intense metaphysical debate ever since the theory's inception early last century. However, supreme predictive power combined with direct experimental observation of some of these unusual phenomena leave little doubt as to its fundamental correctness. In fact, without quantum mechanics we could not explain the workings of a laser, nor indeed how a fridge magnet operates. Over the last several decades quantum information science has emerged to seek answers to the question: can we gain some advantage by storing, transmitting and processing information encoded in systems that exhibit these unique quantum properties? Today it is understood that the answer is yes. Many research groups around the world are working towards one of the most ambitious goals humankind has ever embarked upon: a quantum computer that promises to exponentially improve computational power for particular tasks. A number of physical systems, spanning much of modern physics, are being developed for this task---ranging from single particles of light to superconducting circuits---and it is not yet clear which, if any, will ultimately prove successful. Here we describe the latest developments for each of the leading approaches and explain what the major challenges are for the future.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures, 291 references. Early draft of Nature 464, 45-53 (4 March 2010). Published version is more up-to-date and has several corrections, but is half the length with far fewer reference