1,473 research outputs found
Parameter estimation in softmax decision-making models with linear objective functions
With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the
development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making
from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in
models of human decision-making, we study the maximum likelihood parameter
estimation problem for softmax decision-making models with linear objective
functions. We present conditions under which the likelihood function is convex.
These allow us to provide sufficient conditions for convergence of the
resulting maximum likelihood estimator and to construct its asymptotic
distribution. In the case of models with nonlinear objective functions, we show
how the estimator can be applied by linearizing about a nominal parameter
value. We apply the estimator to fit the stochastic UCL (Upper Credible Limit)
model of human decision-making to human subject data. We show statistically
significant differences in behavior across related, but distinct, tasks.Comment: In pres
Signatures of Infinity: Nonergodicity and Resource Scaling in Prediction, Complexity, and Learning
We introduce a simple analysis of the structural complexity of
infinite-memory processes built from random samples of stationary, ergodic
finite-memory component processes. Such processes are familiar from the well
known multi-arm Bandit problem. We contrast our analysis with
computation-theoretic and statistical inference approaches to understanding
their complexity. The result is an alternative view of the relationship between
predictability, complexity, and learning that highlights the distinct ways in
which informational and correlational divergences arise in complex ergodic and
nonergodic processes. We draw out consequences for the resource divergences
that delineate the structural hierarchy of ergodic processes and for processes
that are themselves hierarchical.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/soi.pd
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