Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and Cl benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches to Energy Demand-Side Response: A Systematic Review

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in Demand Response (DR) as a means to provide flexibility, and hence improve the reliability of energy systems in a cost-effective way. Yet, the high complexity of the tasks associated with DR, combined with their use of large-scale data and the frequent need for near real-time de-cisions, means that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) — a branch of AI — have recently emerged as key technologies for enabling demand-side response. AI methods can be used to tackle various challenges, ranging from selecting the optimal set of consumers to respond, learning their attributes and pref-erences, dynamic pricing, scheduling and control of devices, learning how to incentivise participants in the DR schemes and how to reward them in a fair and economically efficient way. This work provides an overview of AI methods utilised for DR applications, based on a systematic review of over 160 papers, 40 companies and commercial initiatives, and 21 large-scale projects. The papers are classified with regards to both the AI/ML algorithm(s) used and the application area in energy DR. Next, commercial initiatives are presented (including both start-ups and established companies) and large-scale innovation projects, where AI methods have been used for energy DR. The paper concludes with a discussion of advantages and potential limitations of reviewed AI techniques for different DR tasks, and outlines directions for future research in this fast-growing area

Renewable Energy Integration in Distribution System with Artificial Intelligence

With the increasing attention of renewable energy development in distribution power system, artificial intelligence (AI) can play an indispensiable role. In this thesis, a series of artificial intelligence based methods are studied and implemented to further enhance the performance of power system operation and control. Due to the large volume of heterogeneous data provided by both the customer and the grid side, a big data visualization platform is built to feature out the hidden useful knowledge for smart grid (SG) operation, control and situation awareness. An open source cluster calculation framework with Apache Spark is used to discover big data hidden information. The data is transmitted with an Open System Interconnection (OSI) model to the data visualization platform with a high-speed communication architecture. Google Earth and Global Geographic Information System (GIS) are used to design the visualization platform and realize the results. Based on the data visualization platform above, the external manifestation of the data is studied. In the following work, I try to understand the internal hidden information of the data. A short-term load forecasting approach is designed based on support vector regression (SVR) to provide a higher accuracy load forecasting for the network reconfiguration. The nonconvexity of three-phase balanced optimal power flow is relaxed to an optimal power flow (OPF) problem with the second-order cone program (SOCP). The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the reality of distribution systems, a three-phase unbalanced distribtion system is built, which consists of the hourly operation scheduling at substation level and the minutes power flow operation at feeder level. The operaion cost of system with renewable generation is minimized at substation level. The stochastoc distribution model of renewable generation is simulated with a chance constraint, and the derived deterministic form is modeled with Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with genetic algorithm-based expectationmaximization (GAEM). The system cost is further reduced with OPF in real-time (RT) scheduling. The semidefinite programming (SDP) is used to relax the nonconvexity of the three-phase unbalanced distribution system into a convex problem, which helps to achieve the global optimal result. In the parallel manner, the ADMM is realizing getting the results in a short time. Clouds have a big impact on solar energy forecasting. Firstly, a convolutional neural network based mathod is used to estimate the solar irradiance, Secondly, the regression results are collected to predict the renewable generation. After that, a novel approach is proposed to capture the Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) conveniently and accurately. Considering the nonstationary property of the GHI on cloudy days, the GHI capturing is cast as an image regression problem. In traditional approaches, the image regression problem is treated as two parts, feature extraction and regression, which are optimized separately and no interconnections. Considering the nonlinear regression capability, a convolutional neural network (CNN) based image regression approach is proposed to provide an End-to- End solution for the cloudy day GHI capturing problem in this paper. For data cleaning, the Gaussian mixture model with Bayesian inference is employed to detect and eliminate the anomaly data in a nonparametric manner. The purified data are used as input data for the proposed image regression approach. The numerical results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach

Big Data - Supply Chain Management Framework for Forecasting: Data Preprocessing and Machine Learning Techniques

This article intends to systematically identify and comparatively analyze state-of-the-art supply chain (SC) forecasting strategies and technologies. A novel framework has been proposed incorporating Big Data Analytics in SC Management (problem identification, data sources, exploratory data analysis, machine-learning model training, hyperparameter tuning, performance evaluation, and optimization), forecasting effects on human-workforce, inventory, and overall SC. Initially, the need to collect data according to SC strategy and how to collect them has been discussed. The article discusses the need for different types of forecasting according to the period or SC objective. The SC KPIs and the error-measurement systems have been recommended to optimize the top-performing model. The adverse effects of phantom inventory on forecasting and the dependence of managerial decisions on the SC KPIs for determining model performance parameters and improving operations management, transparency, and planning efficiency have been illustrated. The cyclic connection within the framework introduces preprocessing optimization based on the post-process KPIs, optimizing the overall control process (inventory management, workforce determination, cost, production and capacity planning). The contribution of this research lies in the standard SC process framework proposal, recommended forecasting data analysis, forecasting effects on SC performance, machine learning algorithms optimization followed, and in shedding light on future research

Ensemble Reinforcement Learning: A Survey

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a highly effective technique for addressing various scientific and applied problems. Despite its success, certain complex tasks remain challenging to be addressed solely with a single model and algorithm. In response, ensemble reinforcement learning (ERL), a promising approach that combines the benefits of both RL and ensemble learning (EL), has gained widespread popularity. ERL leverages multiple models or training algorithms to comprehensively explore the problem space and possesses strong generalization capabilities. In this study, we present a comprehensive survey on ERL to provide readers with an overview of recent advances and challenges in the field. First, we introduce the background and motivation for ERL. Second, we analyze in detail the strategies that have been successfully applied in ERL, including model averaging, model selection, and model combination. Subsequently, we summarize the datasets and analyze algorithms used in relevant studies. Finally, we outline several open questions and discuss future research directions of ERL. By providing a guide for future scientific research and engineering applications, this survey contributes to the advancement of ERL.Comment: 42 page

Improving Demand Forecasting: The Challenge of Forecasting Studies Comparability and a Novel Approach to Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting

Bedarfsprognosen sind in der Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Anhand des erwarteten Kundenbe-darfs bestimmen Firmen beispielsweise welche Produkte sie entwickeln, wie viele Fabri-ken sie bauen, wie viel Personal eingestellt wird oder wie viel Rohmaterial geordert wer-den muss. Fehleinschätzungen bei Bedarfsprognosen können schwerwiegende Auswir-kungen haben, zu Fehlentscheidungen führen, und im schlimmsten Fall den Bankrott einer Firma herbeiführen. Doch in vielen Fällen ist es komplex, den tatsächlichen Bedarf in der Zukunft zu antizipie-ren. Die Einflussfaktoren können vielfältig sein, beispielsweise makroökonomische Ent-wicklung, das Verhalten von Wettbewerbern oder technologische Entwicklungen. Selbst wenn alle Einflussfaktoren bekannt sind, sind die Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkun-gen häufig nur schwer zu quantifizieren. Diese Dissertation trägt dazu bei, die Genauigkeit von Bedarfsprognosen zu verbessern. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird im Rahmen einer überfassenden Übersicht über das gesamte Spektrum der Anwendungsfelder von Bedarfsprognosen ein neuartiger Ansatz eingeführt, wie Studien zu Bedarfsprognosen systematisch verglichen werden können und am Bei-spiel von 116 aktuellen Studien angewandt. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Studien zu verbes-sern ist ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur aktuellen Forschung. Denn anders als bspw. in der Medizinforschung, gibt es für Bedarfsprognosen keine wesentlichen vergleichenden quan-titativen Meta-Studien. Der Grund dafür ist, dass empirische Studien für Bedarfsprognosen keine vereinheitlichte Beschreibung nutzen, um ihre Daten, Verfahren und Ergebnisse zu beschreiben. Wenn Studien hingegen durch systematische Beschreibung direkt miteinan-der verglichen werden können, ermöglicht das anderen Forschern besser zu analysieren, wie sich Variationen in Ansätzen auf die Prognosegüte auswirken – ohne die aufwändige Notwendigkeit, empirische Experimente erneut durchzuführen, die bereits in Studien beschrieben wurden. Diese Arbeit führt erstmals eine solche Systematik zur Beschreibung ein. Der weitere Teil dieser Arbeit behandelt Prognoseverfahren für intermittierende Zeitreihen, also Zeitreihen mit wesentlichem Anteil von Bedarfen gleich Null. Diese Art der Zeitreihen erfüllen die Anforderungen an Stetigkeit der meisten Prognoseverfahren nicht, weshalb gängige Verfahren häufig ungenügende Prognosegüte erreichen. Gleichwohl ist die Rele-vanz intermittierender Zeitreihen hoch – insbesondere Ersatzteile weisen dieses Bedarfs-muster typischerweise auf. Zunächst zeigt diese Arbeit in drei Studien auf, dass auch die getesteten Stand-der-Technik Machine Learning Ansätze bei einigen bekannten Datensät-zen keine generelle Verbesserung herbeiführen. Als wesentlichen Beitrag zur Forschung zeigt diese Arbeit im Weiteren ein neuartiges Verfahren auf: Der Similarity-based Time Series Forecasting (STSF) Ansatz nutzt ein Aggregation-Disaggregationsverfahren basie-rend auf einer selbst erzeugten Hierarchie statistischer Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen. In Zusammenhang mit dem STSF Ansatz können alle verfügbaren Prognosealgorithmen eingesetzt werden – durch die Aggregation wird die Stetigkeitsbedingung erfüllt. In Expe-rimenten an insgesamt sieben öffentlich bekannten Datensätzen und einem proprietären Datensatz zeigt die Arbeit auf, dass die Prognosegüte (gemessen anhand des Root Mean Square Error RMSE) statistisch signifikant um 1-5% im Schnitt gegenüber dem gleichen Verfahren ohne Einsatz von STSF verbessert werden kann. Somit führt das Verfahren eine wesentliche Verbesserung der Prognosegüte herbei. Zusammengefasst trägt diese Dissertation zum aktuellen Stand der Forschung durch die zuvor genannten Verfahren wesentlich bei. Das vorgeschlagene Verfahren zur Standardi-sierung empirischer Studien beschleunigt den Fortschritt der Forschung, da sie verglei-chende Studien ermöglicht. Und mit dem STSF Verfahren steht ein Ansatz bereit, der zuverlässig die Prognosegüte verbessert, und dabei flexibel mit verschiedenen Arten von Prognosealgorithmen einsetzbar ist. Nach dem Erkenntnisstand der umfassenden Literatur-recherche sind keine vergleichbaren Ansätze bislang beschrieben worden

Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas

The increasing amount of intermittant wind energy sources connected to the power grid present several challenges in balancing the power network. Accurate prediction of wind power production is identified as one of the most important measures for balancing the power network while maintaining a sustainable integration of wind power in the power grid. However, the volatile nature of wind makes wind power forecasting a complicated task, and it is known that the performance of already established wind power prediction models decreases for wind farms in complex terrain sites. This thesis aims to forecast the future wind power output for five different wind farms in Northern Norway using methods from statistics and machine learning. The wind farm sites are generally characterized as complex terrain areas with good wind resources. Four different prediction models are developed for short to medium-term, multi- step prediction of wind power, ranging from traditional statistical models such as the arimax process to complex machine learning models. Additionally, two of the models are implemented both using the recursive and the direct multi- step forecasting technique. For each wind farm, the models are evaluated for an entire year and utilize multivariate input data with variables from a nwp model. The results of the experiments varied greatly across all locations. It was seen that the implemented models were outperformed by the persistence model for short forecasting horizons. However, when the forecasting horizon increased, several models showed a lower error than the persistence model

Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning

The present book contains all the articles accepted and published in the Special Issue “Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Models, Optimization, and Machine Learning” of the MDPI Mathematics journal, which covers a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of artificial intelligence and its subfields. These topics include, among others, deep learning and classic machine learning algorithms, neural modelling, architectures and learning algorithms, biologically inspired optimization algorithms, algorithms for autonomous driving, probabilistic models and Bayesian reasoning, intelligent agents and multiagent systems. We hope that the scientific results presented in this book will serve as valuable sources of documentation and inspiration for anyone willing to pursue research in artificial intelligence, machine learning and their widespread applications