8,289 research outputs found

    Model Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration, and Related Topics

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    Principled forecast evaluation and model diagnostics are vital in fitting probabilistic models and forecasting outcomes of interest. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated, ideally in the sense that the outcome is indistinguishable from a random draw from the posited distribution. Much of this thesis is centered on calibration properties of various types of forecasts. In the first part of the thesis, a simple algorithm for exact multinomial goodness-of-fit tests is proposed. The algorithm computes exact pp-values based on various test statistics, such as the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson\u27s chi-square. A thorough analysis shows improvement on extant methods. However, the runtime of the algorithm grows exponentially in the number of categories and hence its use is limited. In the second part, a framework rooted in probability theory is developed, which gives rise to hierarchies of calibration, and applies to both predictive distributions and stand-alone point forecasts. Based on a general notion of conditional T-calibration, the thesis introduces population versions of T-reliability diagrams and revisits a score decomposition into measures of miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Stable and efficient estimators of T-reliability diagrams and score components arise via nonparametric isotonic regression and the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm. For in-sample model diagnostics, a universal coefficient of determination is introduced that nests and reinterprets the classical R2R^2 in least squares regression. In the third part, probabilistic top lists are proposed as a novel type of prediction in classification, which bridges the gap between single-class predictions and predictive distributions. The probabilistic top list functional is elicited by strictly consistent evaluation metrics, based on symmetric proper scoring rules, which admit comparison of various types of predictions

    Small firms and industrial districts

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    Editor's notes. By Margherita Russo. Sebastiano Brusco's collection of essays Piccole imprese e distretti industriali (Tori-no, Rosenberg & Sellier, 1989) was translated in English by Tim Keats in 1990, unless three chapters that were already available in English and chapter 7 that was too long for a publication as a book chapter. Having abandoned the project of publishing a vol-ume in English, Sebastiano Brusco asked me to share a photocopy of the English transla-tion with scholars who requested it, and so several copies arrived in the hands of re-searchers in various countries: South Africa, Norway, Denmark, the United States, France and the United Kingdom. Twenty years after Sebastiano Brusco passed away, and me approaching to retirement, a working paper edition - in the DEMB Working Paper Series - will make the document freely available online. This digital document has been created, in 2012, drawing on a folder of Sebastiano Brusco's digital archive "Backup of EnglishBook" that contained Lotus MS files. These files have been converted by Patrizio Magagni in a txt format and then inserted by me in a single Word file: "Backup of EnglishBook_from files converted by Patrizio_22.01.2012 Some graphs and tables have been added as images, taken from the Italian edition. The text is all flag-formatted, whereas in the Italian edition only the main introduction, chapter introduction and afterword were flag-formatted. The text is not justified be-cause, in the conversion of the original files, a manual line break was automatically inserted at the end of each line. To differentiate those parts of the text written by Brusco specifically for the publi-cation of the 1989 collection of essays, they are reproduced here in two columns, with a smaller font. A complete list of Sebastiano Brusco's publication is available online at:https://www.economia.unimore.it/site/home/dipartimento-di-economia---sebastiano-brusco-web-page.htm

    Recent Advances in Single-Particle Tracking: Experiment and Analysis

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    This Special Issue of Entropy, titled “Recent Advances in Single-Particle Tracking: Experiment and Analysis”, contains a collection of 13 papers concerning different aspects of single-particle tracking, a popular experimental technique that has deeply penetrated molecular biology and statistical and chemical physics. Presenting original research, yet written in an accessible style, this collection will be useful for both newcomers to the field and more experienced researchers looking for some reference. Several papers are written by authorities in the field, and the topics cover aspects of experimental setups, analytical methods of tracking data analysis, a machine learning approach to data and, finally, some more general issues related to diffusion

    Technologies and Applications for Big Data Value

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    This open access book explores cutting-edge solutions and best practices for big data and data-driven AI applications for the data-driven economy. It provides the reader with a basis for understanding how technical issues can be overcome to offer real-world solutions to major industrial areas. The book starts with an introductory chapter that provides an overview of the book by positioning the following chapters in terms of their contributions to technology frameworks which are key elements of the Big Data Value Public-Private Partnership and the upcoming Partnership on AI, Data and Robotics. The remainder of the book is then arranged in two parts. The first part “Technologies and Methods” contains horizontal contributions of technologies and methods that enable data value chains to be applied in any sector. The second part “Processes and Applications” details experience reports and lessons from using big data and data-driven approaches in processes and applications. Its chapters are co-authored with industry experts and cover domains including health, law, finance, retail, manufacturing, mobility, and smart cities. Contributions emanate from the Big Data Value Public-Private Partnership and the Big Data Value Association, which have acted as the European data community's nucleus to bring together businesses with leading researchers to harness the value of data to benefit society, business, science, and industry. The book is of interest to two primary audiences, first, undergraduate and postgraduate students and researchers in various fields, including big data, data science, data engineering, and machine learning and AI. Second, practitioners and industry experts engaged in data-driven systems, software design and deployment projects who are interested in employing these advanced methods to address real-world problems

    Exploring the Structure of Scattering Amplitudes in Quantum Field Theory: Scattering Equations, On-Shell Diagrams and Ambitwistor String Models in Gauge Theory and Gravity

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    In this thesis I analyse the structure of scattering amplitudes in super-symmetric gauge and gravitational theories in four dimensional spacetime, starting with a detailed review of background material accessible to a non-expert. I then analyse the 4D scattering equations, developing the theory of how they can be used to express scattering amplitudes at tree level. I go on to explain how the equations can be solved numerically using a Monte Carlo algorithm, and introduce my Mathematica package treeamps4dJAF which performs these calculations. Next I analyse the relation between the 4D scattering equations and on-shell diagrams in N = 4 super Yang-Mills, which provides a new perspective on the tree level amplitudes of the theory. I apply a similar analysis to N = 8 supergravity, developing the theory of on-shell diagrams to derive new Grassmannian integral formulae for the amplitudes of the theory. In both theories I derive a new worldsheet expression for the 4 point one loop amplitude supported on 4D scattering equations. Finally I use 4D ambitwistor string theory to analyse scattering amplitudes in N = 4 conformal supergravity, deriving new worldsheet formulae for both plane wave and non-plane wave amplitudes supported on 4D scattering equations. I introduce a new prescription to calculate the derivatives of on-shell variables with respect to momenta, and I use this to show that certain non-plane wave amplitudes can be calculated as momentum derivatives of amplitudes with plane wave states

    Early Neanderthal social and behavioural complexity during the Purfleet Interglacial: handaxes in the latest Lower Palaeolithic.

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    Only a handful of ‘flagship’ sites from the Purfleet Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 9, c. 350-290,000 years ago) have been properly examined, but the archaeological succession at the proposed type-site at Purfleet suggests a period of complexity and transition, with three techno-cultural groups represented in Britain. The first was a simple toolkit lacking handaxes (the Clactonian), and the last a more sophisticated technology presaging the coming Middle Palaeolithic (simple prepared core or proto-Levallois technology). Sandwiched between were Acheulean groups, whose handaxes comprise the great majority of the extant archaeological record of the period – these are the focus of this study. It has previously been suggested that some features of the Acheulean in the Purfleet Interglacial were chronologically restricted, particularly the co-occurrence of ficrons and cleavers. These distinctive forms may have exceeded pure functionality and were perhaps imbued with a deeper social and cultural meaning. This study supports both the previously suggested preference for narrow, pointed morphologies, and the chronologically restricted pairing of ficrons and cleavers. By drawing on a wide spatial and temporal range of sites these patterns could be identified beyond the handful of ‘flagship’ sites previously studied. Hypertrophic ‘giants’ have now also been identified as a chronologically restricted form. Greater metrical variability was found than had been anticipated, leading to the creation of two new sub-groups (IA and IB) which are tentatively suggested to represent spatial and perhaps temporal patterning. The picture in the far west of Britain remains unclear, but the possibility of different Acheulean groups operating in the Solent area, and a late survival of the Acheulean, are both suggested. Handaxes with backing and macroscopic asymmetry may represent prehensile or ergonomic considerations not commonly found on handaxes from earlier interglacial periods. It is argued that these forms anticipate similar developments in the Late Middle Palaeolithic in an example of convergent evolution

    A suite of quantum algorithms for the shortestvector problem

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    Crytography has come to be an essential part of the cybersecurity infrastructure that provides a safe environment for communications in an increasingly connected world. The advent of quantum computing poses a threat to the foundations of the current widely-used cryptographic model, due to the breaking of most of the cryptographic algorithms used to provide confidentiality, authenticity, and more. Consequently a new set of cryptographic protocols have been designed to be secure against quantum computers, and are collectively known as post-quantum cryptography (PQC). A forerunner among PQC is lattice-based cryptography, whose security relies upon the hardness of a number of closely related mathematical problems, one of which is known as the shortest vector problem (SVP). In this thesis I describe a suite of quantum algorithms that utilize the energy minimization principle to attack the shortest vector problem. The algorithms outlined span the gate-model and continuous time quantum computing, and explore methods of parameter optimization via variational methods, which are thought to be effective on near-term quantum computers. The performance of the algorithms are analyzed numerically, analytically, and on quantum hardware where possible. I explain how the results obtained in the pursuit of solving SVP apply more broadly to quantum algorithms seeking to solve general real-world problems; minimize the effect of noise on imperfect hardware; and improve efficiency of parameter optimization.Open Acces

    Combinatorics and Stochasticity for Chemical Reaction Networks

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    Stochastic chemical reaction networks (SCRNs) are a mathematical model which serves as a first approximation to ensembles of interacting molecules. SCRNs approximate such mixtures as always being well-mixed and consisting of a finite number of molecules, and describe their probabilistic evolution according to the law of mass-action. In this thesis, we attempt to develop a mathematical formalism based on formal power series for defining and analyzing SCRNs that was inspired by two different questions. The first question relates to the equilibrium states of systems of polymerization. Formal power series methods in this case allow us to tame the combinatorial complexity of polymer configurations as well as the infinite state space of possible mixture states. Chapter 1 presents an application of these methods to a model of polymerizing scaffolds. The second question relates to the expressive power of SCRNs as generators of stochasticity. In Chapter 2, we show that SCRNs are universal approximators of discrete distributions, even when only allowing for systems with detailed-balance. We further show that SCRNs can exactly simulate Boltzmann machines. In Chapter 3, we develop a formalism for defining the semantics of SCRNs in terms of formal power series which grew as a result of work included in the previous chapters. We use that formulation to derive expressions for the dynamics and stationary states of SCRNs. Finally, we focus on systems that satisfy complex balance and conservation of mass and derive a general expressions for their factorial moments using generating function methods

    The role of time in video understanding

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