Engineering failure analysis and design optimisation with HiP-HOPS

The scale and complexity of computer-based safety critical systems, like those used in the transport and manufacturing industries, pose significant challenges for failure analysis. Over the last decade, research has focused on automating this task. In one approach, predictive models of system failure are constructed from the topology of the system and local component failure models using a process of composition. An alternative approach employs model-checking of state automata to study the effects of failure and verify system safety properties. In this paper, we discuss these two approaches to failure analysis. We then focus on Hierarchically Performed Hazard Origin & Propagation Studies (HiP-HOPS) - one of the more advanced compositional approaches - and discuss its capabilities for automatic synthesis of fault trees, combinatorial Failure Modes and Effects Analyses, and reliability versus cost optimisation of systems via application of automatic model transformations. We summarise these contributions and demonstrate the application of HiP-HOPS on a simplified fuel oil system for a ship engine. In light of this example, we discuss strengths and limitations of the method in relation to other state-of-the-art techniques. In particular, because HiP-HOPS is deductive in nature, relating system failures back to their causes, it is less prone to combinatorial explosion and can more readily be iterated. For this reason, it enables exhaustive assessment of combinations of failures and design optimisation using computationally expensive meta-heuristics. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Integrated application of compositional and behavioural safety analysis

To address challenges arising in the safety assessment of critical engineering systems, research has recently focused on automating the synthesis of predictive models of system failure from design representations. In one approach, known as compositional safety analysis, system failure models such as fault trees and Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) are constructed from component failure models using a process of composition. Another approach has looked into automating system safety analysis via application of formal verification techniques such as model checking on behavioural models of the system represented as state automata. So far, compositional safety analysis and formal verification have been developed separately and seen as two competing paradigms to the problem of model-based safety analysis. This thesis shows that it is possible to move forward the terms of this debate and use the two paradigms synergistically in the context of an advanced safety assessment process. The thesis develops a systematic approach in which compositional safety analysis provides the basis for the systematic construction and refinement of state-automata that record the transition of a system from normal to degraded and failed states. These state automata can be further enhanced and then be model-checked to verify the satisfaction of safety properties. Note that the development of such models in current practice is ad hoc and relies only on expert knowledge, but it being rationalised and systematised in the proposed approach – a key contribution of this thesis. Overall the approach combines the advantages of compositional safety analysis such as simplicity, efficiency and scalability, with the benefits of formal verification such as the ability for automated verification of safety requirements on dynamic models of the system, and leads to an improved model-based safety analysis process. In the context of this process, a novel generic mechanism is also proposed for modelling the detectability of errors which typically arise as a result of component faults and then propagate through the architecture. This mechanism is used to derive analyses that can aid decisions on appropriate detection and recovery mechanisms in the system model. The thesis starts with an investigation of the potential for useful integration of compositional and formal safety analysis techniques. The approach is then developed in detail and guidelines for analysis and refinement of system models are given. Finally, the process is evaluated in three cases studies that were iteratively performed on increasingly refined and improved models of aircraft and automotive braking and cruise control systems. In the light of the results of these studies, the thesis concludes that integration of compositional and formal safety analysis techniques is feasible and potentially useful in the design of safety critical systems

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs) i.e., software components that use ma- chine learning (ML)are to analyze and understand the con- tribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the notion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs) a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing L analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool

Automatic Generation of Minimal Cut Sets

A cut set is a collection of component failure modes that could lead to a system failure. Cut Set Analysis (CSA) is applied to critical systems to identify and rank system vulnerabilities at design time. Model checking tools have been used to automate the generation of minimal cut sets but are generally based on checking reachability of system failure states. This paper describes a new approach to CSA using a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checker called BT Analyser that supports the generation of multiple counterexamples. The approach enables a broader class of system failures to be analysed, by generalising from failure state formulae to failure behaviours expressed in LTL. The traditional approach to CSA using model checking requires the model or system failure to be modified, usually by hand, to eliminate already-discovered cut sets, and the model checker to be rerun, at each step. By contrast, the new approach works incrementally and fully automatically, thereby removing the tedious and error-prone manual process and resulting in significantly reduced computation time. This in turn enables larger models to be checked. Two different strategies for using BT Analyser for CSA are presented. There is generally no single best strategy for model checking: their relative efficiency depends on the model and property being analysed. Comparative results are given for the A320 hydraulics case study in the Behavior Tree modelling language.Comment: In Proceedings ESSS 2015, arXiv:1506.0325

ATM automation: guidance on human technology integration

© Civil Aviation Authority 2016Human interaction with technology and automation is a key area of interest to industry and safety regulators alike. In February 2014, a joint CAA/industry workshop considered perspectives on present and future implementation of advanced automated systems. The conclusion was that whilst no additional regulation was necessary, guidance material for industry and regulators was required. Development of this guidance document was completed in 2015 by a working group consisting of CAA, UK industry, academia and industry associations (see Appendix B). This enabled a collaborative approach to be taken, and for regulatory, industry, and workforce perspectives to be collectively considered and addressed. The processes used in developing this guidance included: review of the themes identified from the February 2014 CAA/industry workshop1; review of academic papers, textbooks on automation, incidents and accidents involving automation; identification of key safety issues associated with automated systems; analysis of current and emerging ATM regulatory requirements and guidance material; presentation of emerging findings for critical review at UK and European aviation safety conferences. In December 2015, a workshop of senior management from project partner organisations reviewed the findings and proposals. EASA were briefed on the project before its commencement, and Eurocontrol contributed through membership of the Working Group.Final Published versio

The Role of Trust and Interaction in GPS Related Accidents: A Human Factors Safety Assessment of the Global Positioning System (GPS)

The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses a network of orbiting and geostationary satellites to calculate the position of a receiver over time. This technology has revolutionised a wide range of safety-critical industries and leisure applications ranging from commercial fisheries through to mountain running. These systems provide diverse benefits; supplementing the users existing navigation skills and reducing the uncertainty that often characterises many route planning tasks. GPS applications can also help to reduce workload by automating tasks that would otherwise require finite cognitive and perceptual resources. However, the operation of these systems has been identified as a contributory factor in a range of recent accidents. Users often come to rely on GPS applications and, therefore, fail to notice when they develop faults or when errors occur in the other systems that use the data from these systems. Further accidents can stem from the ‘over confidence’ that arises when users assume automated warnings will be issued when they stray from an intended route. Unless greater attention is paid to the human factors of GPS applications then there is a danger that we will see an increasing number of these failures as positioning technologies are integrated into increasing numbers of application

Occupational Cultures as a Challenge to Technological Innovation

This paper explains conflict over technological process innovation in cultural terms, drawing primarily on a case study of electric power distribution and strategies to automate its operation

Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

A synthesis of logic and biology in the design of dependable systems

The technologies of model-based design and dependability analysis in the design of dependable systems, including software intensive systems, have advanced in recent years. Much of this development can be attributed to the application of advances in formal logic and its application to fault forecasting and verification of systems. In parallel, work on bio-inspired technologies has shown potential for the evolutionary design of engineering systems via automated exploration of potentially large design spaces. We have not yet seen the emergence of a design paradigm that combines effectively and throughout the design lifecycle these two techniques which are schematically founded on the two pillars of formal logic and biology. Such a design paradigm would apply these techniques synergistically and systematically from the early stages of design to enable optimal refinement of new designs which can be driven effectively by dependability requirements. The paper sketches such a model-centric paradigm for the design of dependable systems that brings these technologies together to realise their combined potential benefits

Automation of the longwall mining system

Cost effective, safe, and technologically sound applications of automation technology to underground coal mining were identified. The longwall analysis commenced with a general search for government and industry experience of mining automation technology. A brief industry survey was conducted to identify longwall operational, safety, and design problems. The prime automation candidates resulting from the industry experience and survey were: (1) the shearer operation, (2) shield and conveyor pan line advance, (3) a management information system to allow improved mine logistics support, and (4) component fault isolation and diagnostics to reduce untimely maintenance delays. A system network analysis indicated that a 40% improvement in productivity was feasible if system delays associated with all of the above four areas were removed. A technology assessment and conceptual system design of each of the four automation candidate areas showed that state of the art digital computer, servomechanism, and actuator technologies could be applied to automate the longwall system