60,322 research outputs found

    Bayesian Robust Tensor Factorization for Incomplete Multiway Data

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    We propose a generative model for robust tensor factorization in the presence of both missing data and outliers. The objective is to explicitly infer the underlying low-CP-rank tensor capturing the global information and a sparse tensor capturing the local information (also considered as outliers), thus providing the robust predictive distribution over missing entries. The low-CP-rank tensor is modeled by multilinear interactions between multiple latent factors on which the column sparsity is enforced by a hierarchical prior, while the sparse tensor is modeled by a hierarchical view of Student-tt distribution that associates an individual hyperparameter with each element independently. For model learning, we develop an efficient closed-form variational inference under a fully Bayesian treatment, which can effectively prevent the overfitting problem and scales linearly with data size. In contrast to existing related works, our method can perform model selection automatically and implicitly without need of tuning parameters. More specifically, it can discover the groundtruth of CP rank and automatically adapt the sparsity inducing priors to various types of outliers. In addition, the tradeoff between the low-rank approximation and the sparse representation can be optimized in the sense of maximum model evidence. The extensive experiments and comparisons with many state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiorities of our method from several perspectives.Comment: in IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, 201

    Projection predictive model selection for Gaussian processes

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    We propose a new method for simplification of Gaussian process (GP) models by projecting the information contained in the full encompassing model and selecting a reduced number of variables based on their predictive relevance. Our results on synthetic and real world datasets show that the proposed method improves the assessment of variable relevance compared to the automatic relevance determination (ARD) via the length-scale parameters. We expect the method to be useful for improving explainability of the models, reducing the future measurement costs and reducing the computation time for making new predictions.Comment: A few minor changes in tex

    Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference

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    Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps. To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models. ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming system; it is available for immediate use

    Automatic Variational Inference in Stan

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    Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). The user only provides a Bayesian model and a dataset; nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We implement ADVI in Stan (code available now), a probabilistic programming framework. We compare ADVI to MCMC sampling across hierarchical generalized linear models, nonconjugate matrix factorization, and a mixture model. We train the mixture model on a quarter million images. With ADVI we can use variational inference on any model we write in Stan

    Deep Gaussian Processes

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    In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then governed by another GP. A single layer model is equivalent to a standard GP or the GP latent variable model (GP-LVM). We perform inference in the model by approximate variational marginalization. This results in a strict lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the model which we use for model selection (number of layers and nodes per layer). Deep belief networks are typically applied to relatively large data sets using stochastic gradient descent for optimization. Our fully Bayesian treatment allows for the application of deep models even when data is scarce. Model selection by our variational bound shows that a five layer hierarchy is justified even when modelling a digit data set containing only 150 examples.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. Appearing in Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 201

    Jurimetrics: The Methodology of Legal Inquiry

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