Practical bounds on the error of Bayesian posterior approximations: A nonasymptotic approach

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain Monte Carlo, remain the gold standard for approximate Bayesian inference because they have a robust finite-sample theory and reliable convergence diagnostics. However, alternative methods, which are more scalable or apply to problems where Markov Chain Monte Carlo cannot be used, lack the same finite-data approximation theory and tools for evaluating their accuracy. In this work, we develop a flexible new approach to bounding the error of mean and uncertainty estimates of scalable inference algorithms. Our strategy is to control the estimation errors in terms of Wasserstein distance, then bound the Wasserstein distance via a generalized notion of Fisher distance. Unlike computing the Wasserstein distance, which requires access to the normalized posterior distribution, the Fisher distance is tractable to compute because it requires access only to the gradient of the log posterior density. We demonstrate the usefulness of our Fisher distance approach by deriving bounds on the Wasserstein error of the Laplace approximation and Hilbert coresets. We anticipate that our approach will be applicable to many other approximate inference methods such as the integrated Laplace approximation, variational inference, and approximate Bayesian computationComment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Data Summarizations for Scalable, Robust and Privacy-Aware Learning in High Dimensions

The advent of large-scale datasets has offered unprecedented amounts of information for building statistically powerful machines, but, at the same time, also introduced a remarkable computational challenge: how can we efficiently process massive data? This thesis presents a suite of data reduction methods that make learning algorithms scale on large datasets, via extracting a succinct model-specific representation that summarizes the full data collection—a coreset. Our frameworks support by design datasets of arbitrary dimensionality, and can be used for general purpose Bayesian inference under real-world constraints, including privacy preservation and robustness to outliers, encompassing diverse uncertainty-aware data analysis tasks, such as density estimation, classification and regression. We motivate the necessity for novel data reduction techniques in the first place by developing a reidentification attack on coarsened representations of private behavioural data. Analysing longitudinal records of human mobility, we detect privacy-revealing structural patterns, that remain preserved in reduced graph representations of individuals’ information with manageable size. These unique patterns enable mounting linkage attacks via structural similarity computations on longitudinal mobility traces, revealing an overlooked, yet existing, privacy threat. We then propose a scalable variational inference scheme for approximating posteriors on large datasets via learnable weighted pseudodata, termed pseudocoresets. We show that the use of pseudodata enables overcoming the constraints on minimum summary size for given approximation quality, that are imposed on all existing Bayesian coreset constructions due to data dimensionality. Moreover, it allows us to develop a scheme for pseudocoresets-based summarization that satisfies the standard framework of differential privacy by construction; in this way, we can release reduced size privacy-preserving representations for sensitive datasets that are amenable to arbitrary post-processing. Subsequently, we consider summarizations for large-scale Bayesian inference in scenarios when observed datapoints depart from the statistical assumptions of our model. Using robust divergences, we develop a method for constructing coresets resilient to model misspecification. Crucially, this method is able to automatically discard outliers from the generated data summaries. Thus we deliver robustified scalable representations for inference, that are suitable for applications involving contaminated and unreliable data sources. We demonstrate the performance of proposed summarization techniques on multiple parametric statistical models, and diverse simulated and real-world datasets, from music genre features to hospital readmission records, considering a wide range of data dimensionalities.Nokia Bell Labs, Lundgren Fund, Darwin College, University of Cambridge Department of Computer Science & Technology, University of Cambridg

Bayes Hilbert Spaces for Posterior Approximation

Performing inference in Bayesian models requires sampling algorithms to draw samples from the posterior. This becomes prohibitively expensive as the size of data sets increase. Constructing approximations to the posterior which are cheap to evaluate is a popular approach to circumvent this issue. This begs the question of what is an appropriate space to perform approximation of Bayesian posterior measures. This manuscript studies the application of Bayes Hilbert spaces to the posterior approximation problem. Bayes Hilbert spaces are studied in functional data analysis in the context where observed functions are probability density functions and their application to computational Bayesian problems is in its infancy. This manuscript shall outline Bayes Hilbert spaces and their connection to Bayesian computation, in particular novel connections between Bayes Hilbert spaces, Bayesian coreset algorithms and kernel-based distances

Black-box Coreset Variational Inference

Recent advances in coreset methods have shown that a selection of representative datapoints can replace massive volumes of data for Bayesian inference, preserving the relevant statistical information and significantly accelerating subsequent downstream tasks. Existing variational coreset constructions rely on either selecting subsets of the observed datapoints, or jointly performing approximate inference and optimizing pseudodata in the observed space akin to inducing points methods in Gaussian Processes. So far, both approaches are limited by complexities in evaluating their objectives for general purpose models, and require generating samples from a typically intractable posterior over the coreset throughout inference and testing. In this work, we present a black-box variational inference framework for coresets that overcomes these constraints and enables principled application of variational coresets to intractable models, such as Bayesian neural networks. We apply our techniques to supervised learning problems, and compare them with existing approaches in the literature for data summarization and inference.Comment: NeurIPS 202