Complex systems science: expert consultation report

Executive SummaryA new programme of research in Complex Systems Science must be initiated by FETThe science of complex systems (CS) is essential to establish rigorous scientific principles on which to develop the future ICT systems that are critical to the well-being, safety and prosperity of Europe and its citizens. As the “ICT incubator and pathfinder for new ideas and themes for long-term research in the area of information and communication technologies” FET must initiate a significant new programme of research in complex systems science to underpin research and development in ICT. Complex Systems Science is a “blue sky” research laboratory for R&D in ICT and their applications. In July 2009, ASSYST was given a set of probing questions concerning FET funding for ICT-related complex systems research. This document is based on the CS community’s response.Complex systems research has made considerable progress and is delivering new scienceSince FET began supporting CS research, considerable progress has been made. Building on previous understanding of concepts such as emergence from interactions, far-from-equilibrium systems, border of chaos and self-organised criticality, recent CS research is now delivering rigorous theory through methods of statistical physics, network theory, and computer simulation. CS research increasingly demands high-throughput data streams and new ICT-based methods of observing and reconstructing, i.e. modelling, the dynamics from those data in areas as diverse as embryogenesis, neuroscience, transport, epidemics, linguistics, meteorology, and robotics. CS research is also beginning to address the problem of engineering robust systems of systems of systems that can adapt to changing environments, including the perplexing problem that ICT systems are too often fragile and non-adaptive.Recommendation: A Programme of Research in Complex Systems Science to Support ICTFundamental theory in Complex Systems Science is needed, but this can only be achieved through real-world applications involving large, heterogeneous, and messy data sets, including people and organisations. A long-term vision is needed. Realistic targets can be set. Fundamental research can be ensured by requiring that teams include mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and computational social scientists.One research priority is to develop a formalism for multilevel systems of systems of systems, applicable to all areas including biology, economics, security, transportation, robotics, health, agriculture, ecology, and climate change. Another related research priority is a scientific perspective on the integration of the new science with policy and its implementation, including ethical problems related to privacy and equality.A further priority is the need for education in complex systems science. Conventional education continues to be domain-dominated, producing scientists who are for the most part still lacking fundamental knowledge in core areas of mathematics, computation, statistical physics, and social systems. Therefore:1. We recommend that FET fund a new programme of work in complex systems science as essential research for progress in the development of new kinds of ICT systems.2. We have identified the dynamics of multilevel systems as the area in complex systems science requiring a major paradigm shift, beyond which significant scientific progress cannot be made.3. We propose a call requiring: fundamental research in complex systems science; new mathematical and computational formalisms to be developed; involving a large ‘guinea pig’ organisation; research into policy and its meta-level information dynamics; and that all research staff have interdisciplinary knowledge through an education programme.Tangible outcomes, potential users of the new science, its impact and measures of successUsers include (i) the private and public sectors using ICT to manage complex systems and (ii) researchers in ICT, CSS, and all complex domains. The tangible output of a call will be new knowledge on the nature of complex systems in general, new knowledge of the particular complex system(s) studied, and new knowledge of the fundamental role played by ICT in the research and implementation to create real systems addressing real-world problems. The impact of the call will be seen through new high added-value opportunities in the public and private sectors, new high added-value ICT technologies, and new high added-value science to support innovation in ICT research and development. The measure of success will be through the delivery of these high added-value outcomes, and new science to better understand failures

Technology assessment of advanced automation for space missions

Six general classes of technology requirements derived during the mission definition phase of the study were identified as having maximum importance and urgency, including autonomous world model based information systems, learning and hypothesis formation, natural language and other man-machine communication, space manufacturing, teleoperators and robot systems, and computer science and technology

Theory formation by abduction : initial results of a case study based on the chemical revolution

Abduction is the process of constructing explanations. This chapter suggests that automated abduction is a key to advancing beyond the "routine theory revision" methods developed in early AI research towards automated reasoning systems capable of "world model revision" — dramatic changes in systems of beliefs such as occur in children's cognitive development and in scientific revolutions. The chapter describes a general approach to automating theory revision based upon computational methods for theory formation by abduction. The approach is based on the idea that, when an anomaly is encountered, the best course is often simply to suppress parts of the original theory thrown into question by the contradiction and to derive an explanation of the anomalous observation based on relatively solid, basic principles. This process of looking for explanations of unexpected new phenomena can lead by abductive inference to new hypotheses that can form crucial parts of a revised theory. As an illustration, the chapter shows how some of Lavoisier's key insights during the Chemical Revolution can be viewed as examples of theory formation by abduction

The computer revolution in science: steps towards the realization of computer-supported discovery environments

The tools that scientists use in their search processes together form so-called discovery environments. The promise of artificial intelligence and other branches of computer science is to radically transform conventional discovery environments by equipping scientists with a range of powerful computer tools including large-scale, shared knowledge bases and discovery programs. We will describe the future computer-supported discovery environments that may result, and illustrate by means of a realistic scenario how scientists come to new discoveries in these environments. In order to make the step from the current generation of discovery tools to computer-supported discovery environments like the one presented in the scenario, developers should realize that such environments are large-scale sociotechnical systems. They should not just focus on isolated computer programs, but also pay attention to the question how these programs will be used and maintained by scientists in research practices. In order to help developers of discovery programs in achieving the integration of their tools in discovery environments, we will formulate a set of guidelines that developers could follow

A Science of Reasoning

This paper addresses the question of how we can understand reasoning in general and mathematical proofs in particular. It argues the need for a high-level understanding of proofs to complement the low-level understanding provided by Logic. It proposes a role for computation in providing this high-level understanding, namely by the association of proof plans with proofs. Proof plans are defined and examples are given for two families of proofs. Criteria are given for assessing the association of a proof plan with a proof. 1 Motivation: the understanding of mathematical proofs The understanding of reasoning has interested researchers since, at least, Aristotle. Logic has been proposed by Aristotle, Boole, Frege and others as a way of formalising arguments and understanding their structure. There have also been psychological studies of how people and animals actually do reason. The work on Logic has been especially influential in the automation of reasoning. For instance, resolution..

Automated verification of refinement laws

Demonic refinement algebras are variants of Kleene algebras. Introduced by von Wright as a light-weight variant of the refinement calculus, their intended semantics are positively disjunctive predicate transformers, and their calculus is entirely within first-order equational logic. So, for the first time, off-the-shelf automated theorem proving (ATP) becomes available for refinement proofs. We used ATP to verify a toolkit of basic refinement laws. Based on this toolkit, we then verified two classical complex refinement laws for action systems by ATP: a data refinement law and Back's atomicity refinement law. We also present a refinement law for infinite loops that has been discovered through automated analysis. Our proof experiments not only demonstrate that refinement can effectively be automated, they also compare eleven different ATP systems and suggest that program verification with variants of Kleene algebras yields interesting theorem proving benchmarks. Finally, we apply hypothesis learning techniques that seem indispensable for automating more complex proofs

Empirical modelling principles to support learning in a cultural context

Much research on pedagogy stresses the need for a broad perspective on learning. Such a perspective might take account (for instance) of the experience that informs knowledge and understanding [Tur91], the situation in which the learning activity takes place [Lav88], and the influence of multiple intelligences [Gar83]. Educational technology appears to hold great promise in this connection. Computer-related technologies such as new media, the internet, virtual reality and brain-mediated communication afford access to a range of learning resources that grows ever wider in its scope and supports ever more sophisticated interactions. Whether educational technology is fulfilling its potential in broadening the horizons for learning activity is more controversial. Though some see the successful development of radically new educational resources as merely a matter of time, investment and engineering, there are also many critics of the trends in computer-based learning who see little evidence of the greater degree of human engagement to which new technologies aspire [Tal95]. This paper reviews the potential application to educational technology of principles and tools for computer-based modelling that have been developed under the auspices of the Empirical Modelling (EM) project at Warwick [EMweb]. This theme was first addressed at length in a previous paper [Bey97], and is here revisited in the light of new practical developments in EM both in respect of tools and of model-building that has been targetted at education at various levels. Our central thesis is that the problems of educational technology stem from the limitations of current conceptual frameworks and tool support for the essential cognitive model building activity, and that tackling these problems requires a radical shift in philosophical perspective on the nature and role of empirical knowledge that has significant practical implications. The paper is in two main sections. The first discusses the limitations of the classical computer science perspective where educational technology to support situated learning is concerned, and relates the learning activities that are most closely associated with a cultural context to the empiricist perspective on learning introduced in [Bey97]. The second outlines the principles of EM and describes and illustrates features of its practical application that are particularly well-suited to learning in a cultural setting