The Prediction Market for the Australian Football League

The purpose of this paper is to make a novel contribution to the literature on the prediction market for the Australian Football League, the major sports league in which Australian Rules Football is played. Taking advantage of a novel micro-level data set which includes detailed per-game player statistics, predictions are presented and tested out-of-sample for the simplest kind of bet: fixed odds win betting. It is shown that player-level statistics may be used to yield very modest profits net of transaction costs over a number of seasons, provided some more global variables are added to the model. A comparison of different specifications of the linear probability model (LPM) versus conditional logit (CLOGIT) regressions reveals that the LPM usually outperforms CLOGIT in terms of profitability. It is further shown that adding significant variables to a regression specification which is clearly superior in econometric terms may reduce the efficacy of the prediction and thus profits.

Studying the Relationship Between Financial Risk Aversion and Income with the Jeopardy! Daily Double

It has long been up for debate as to whether there is a link between financial risk aversion and income. This study’s purpose is to, using data from the game show Jeopardy!, investigate this question through analytical research. This study made use of multiple regression analyses in order to examine the relationship between income and risk aversion in Jeopardy! contestants who appeared on the show between January 2019 and October 2020. Specifically, this study looked to isolate the potential impact a contestant’s estimated annual income had on their willingness to bet on the Jeopardy! Daily Double question. It was found that, under all tested circumstances, a contestant’s estimated annual income had an insignificant positive impact on their willingness to bet a larger percentage of their respective pot. This study provides evidence that suggests there may be little-to-no significant correlation between income and financial risk aversion in individuals. Further studies could expand this research through the investigation of bettor rationality; such information could then be used to further isolate the impact of income on contestant risk aversion

Understanding Involuntary Illegal Online Gamblers in the U.S.: Framing in Misleading Information by Online Casino Reviews

Although there are many illegal online gamblers in the United States who use offshore gambling sites while falsely believing that their activity is legitimate, few studies have focused on the role of online casino reviews (OCR) who facilitate this activity. These reviews, for a variety of reasons, may present misleading information designed to encourage U.S. players to use offshore gambling sites. Using framing theory and neutralization techniques, we conducted a content analysis of multiple OCR to examine how they present information and justifications regarding the use of offshore gambling sites in the U.S. The findings indicate that many OCR positively promoted offshore sites, presenting various frames in which legal issues and information were interpreted in ways that neutralize and encourage the use of offshore sites in the U.S. This study suggests multiple preventive measures to facilitate effective online gambling regulation